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Monday 05-21-2012 Thistledown R5

jeff
5/22/2012
12:03:49 AM

HANA Blog - Monday 05-21-2012 Thistledown R5:
http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2012/05/monday-05-21-2012-tdn-r5.html

--quote:

"I was watching the betting pools at TDN 5. As the race started there was around $13k in the win pool most of which was bet on #7 who was 1-5.

Part way through the race, the odds changed tremendously with 30-1 and 50-1 shots dropping to 9-2 and the 1-5 favorite jumping to 5-1.

Here is a snapshot of the final pools:

----- ---- ------ -- ----- -- ----- --
Horse Odds WIN % PLACE % SHOW %
----- ---- ------ -- ----- -- ----- --
#1 9/2 15,449 14 133 3 2,089 11
#2 9/2 15,357 14 184 5 2,093 11
#3 9/2 15,227 14 43 1 2,074 11
#4 4 15,987 15 530 14 2,341 12
#5 9/2 15,342 14 234 6 2,109 11
#6 9/2 15,478 14 291 7 2,198 12
#7 5 13,431 12 2,243 61 5,164 28
-----------------------------------------

As you can infer from the totals, very late in the wagering, some robotic wagering program must have mistakenly bet $15k to win and $2k to show on all horses except the #7."

--end quote.

-jp

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tanix
5/24/2012
5:06:57 PM

Jeff, I don't think there was any dutching involved here. It looks like $15K was bet on each of the horses on question, which had the effect of equaling the odds just because the "regular" pool amounts were largely insignificant compared to the $15K per horse wagered.

I'd love to know the real story, but I figure it had to do with an offshore score. An article I read elsewhere indicated that the wagers were actually placed through two different ADWs ($7K per horse through one, $8K per horse through the other) so that makes it sound less and less like an accident.

jeff
5/24/2012
7:47:28 PM

My opinion, FWIW, is there's no way an "accident" creates the exact conditions needed for someone betting through a non parimutuel outlet to make a significant score on a horse that's as close to a "sure thing" as you're ever likely to see.

Had the "accident" occurred at even 1 mtp - that would have given the other bettors time to react to the odds change and the sure thing winner would have been re-bet down to below even money. Keep in mind that the winning horse was 1/9 to 1/5 throughout the betting right up until the gate sprang. Also keep in mind that the horse won by the length of the stretch.

There's no way this was an accident.

-jp

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