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By ChartRaces Table and Pool Size
jeff
6/14/2021
12:37:29 PM		ChartRaces Table and Pool Size

A while back I had a conversation about bet-sizing with someone who works for one of the largest whale teams on the planet. He told me, for the tracks they play they bet every wager type offered in every race. He also told me their max bet size is between 1.5% and 1.75% of expected pool size. The reason they shoot for 1.5% to 1.75% of pool size is that’s the bet size where, historically, their model generates max returns factoring in their rebates.

Suppose for the sake of argument you’ve developed a model that generates positive returns factoring in rebates. Further suppose you want to scale your betting to realize max returns.

Is there a way in JCapper to estimate pool size for the race in front of you?

Inside the c:\JCapperExe\JCapperSDK.mdb file there is a table named ChartRaces.

When you are operating JCapper in SQL Mode there is a setting in the Enhanced Settings Module called the JCapper SDK Setting that when toggled on - causes JCapper to auto-populate the ChartRaces table with data whenever you are processing HDW Chart Result Files.

The ChartRaces table design is one row per race with columns for many useful data points - including wager type, base wager amt, saddle cloth numbers for the winning combos, parimutuel payoff for the winning combos, and pool size for each wager type offered that race.

Link to a text file that I generated using the JCX File Exports Module showing the columns and data types for the ChartRaces table:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/reports/ChartRacesTableSchema-06142021.txt


More to come...


-jp

.


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jeff
6/14/2021
2:12:18 PM		The JCX File Exports Module
The idea behind the JCX File Exports Module is to make it easy for you the user to export data from any JCapper table out to .CSV file on the hard drive. From there it’s pretty easy to bring the exported data into the third party data tool of your choice such as Excel, Access, Python, SQL, MySQL, packages in R, SAS, and/or SPSS, etc. – so you can transform and analyze the data as you see fit.

Link to the JCX File Exports Module Help Doc:
http://www.jcapper.com/helpDocs/JCXFileExportModule.html

Once you have a ChartRaces table populated with data you can bring up the JCX File Exports Module – key a user defined sql expression that you can save, pull up later, modify as you see fit, and resave as you see fit - you can export data that resides in selected columns and rows from the ChartRaces table out to .csv file on your hard drive.

Suppose for the sake of argument you were playing Pimlico this past weekend, you only wanted to play races with a min fieldsize of seven horses – and you wanted to use the JCX File Exports Module to generate pool size estimates for Win and Exacta.

This is the (example) sql expression that I started with: 
SELECT RACEDATE, TRACK, RACE, WPSPOOL, EXAPOOL
FROM CHARTRACES  
WHERE TRACK='PIM'   
AND [RACEDATE]  >= #01-01-2021#
AND [RACEDATE]  <= #06-11-2021#
AND FIELDSIZE >= 7
ORDER BY RACEDATE, TRACK, RACE


Screenshot of the JCX File Exports Module SQL Expression Tool with the above sql expression keyed in – after connecting to the c:\JCapperExe\JCapperSDK.mdb file and after clicking the Apply button:

JCX SQL Expression Tool


Screenshot of the JCX File Exports Module after keying in “c:\jcapper\exe\pim-06112021a.csv” (without the quotes) for the export filepath and after clicking the Generate Export button:

JCX File Exports Module



After generating the export - I double clicked the .csv export file to open it in Excel. From there I began scrolling through the records in the file.

Screenshot showing the top 15 rows of the .csv export file:

The Export Data in Excel


Pool sizes looked fairly consistent – until I scrolled to the data for Preakness Weekend - Fri 05-14-2021 and Sat 05-15-2021.

Screenshot showing the data for Preakness Weekend Fri 05-14-2021 to Sat 05-15-2021:

The Export Data in Excel



Note that pool size for these two special event racecards is many times pool size you’d expect for a typical racecard.

The exacta pool for the Preakness itself was approximately $11.6 million.

If you’re trying to get a handle on estimated pool size for a typical racecard:

You need to know pool size for major special event racecards such as KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont, and Breeders Cup dwarfs pool size for a typical racecard at these same tracks.

Therefore, it is a good idea to adjust the sql expression driving your exports to remove the dates for major special event racecards such as KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont, and Breeders Cup prior to running the export itself.

This is the revised sql expression I used to exclude data for Preakness weekend:

SELECT RACEDATE, TRACK, RACE, WPSPOOL, EXAPOOL
FROM CHARTRACES  
WHERE TRACK='PIM'   
AND [RACEDATE]  >= #01-01-2021#
AND [RACEDATE]  <= #06-11-2021#
AND NOT [RACEDATE] = #05-14-2021#
AND NOT [RACEDATE] = #05-15-2021#
AND FIELDSIZE >= 7
ORDER BY RACEDATE, TRACK, RACE

Note the two lines in the above sql expression referencing the dates for 05-14-2021 and 05-15-2021 causing the records for Preakness Weekend to be excluded from the query results.

Screenshot of the JCX File Exports Module SQL Expression Tool with the above (revised) sql expression keyed in – while still connected to the c:\JCapperExe\JCapperSDK.mdb file - and after clicking the Apply button:

JCX SQL Expression Tool


Screenshot of the JCX File Exports Module after keying in “c:\jcapper\exe\pim-06112021b.csv” (without the quotes) for the (revised) export filepath and after clicking the Generate Export button:

JCX File Exports Module



I double clicked the revised .csv export file to open it in Excel. From there I began scrolling through the records in the file – and noted that the rows for Preakness Weekend were in fact excluded from the export.

Screenshot showing the bottom rows of the .csv export file – after clicking in the appropriate WPSPool and ExaPool columns –after keying in formulas to make Excel generate Totals and Averages for both the WPS and Exacta pools – and after resaving the .csv export file as an Excel .xlsx file:

The Export Data in Excel


Link to a downloadable .zip file that contains the first .csv export file, the revised .csv export file with the Preakness Weekend data excluded, and the final .xlsx file that contains the export data and the formulas to compute Totals and Averages for both the WPS and Exacta pools:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/reports/pim-chartraces-06112021.zip



About WPS Pool Data

For whatever reason, tracks don't report Win, Place, and Show pool data to Equibase separately.

Instead, and even though the data for the separate pools is readily available from the tote companies, tracks aggregate Win, Place, and Show pools - and report the total to Equibase as WPS.

In turn, Equibase reports the aggregate WPS totals in the chart data.

If you are trying glean WIN pool size from WPS:

A good rule of thumb that gets you a ballpark estimate is to multiply the WPS amount by 0.675.



Summary

I used the JCX File Exports Module to export WPS Pool and Exacta Pool data for typical racecards only at Pimlico during their current 2021 meet where min fieldsize was seven runners out to .csv file on my hard drive.

I brought the exported data into Excel - added a few simple formulas to calculate average WPS Pool and Exacta Pool size for the exported data.

Prior to this past weekend Sat 06-12-2021 and Sun 06-13-2021, avg pool size for a typical race card at this year's Pimlico meet was: 

WPS $129,096
EXA $103,575


Estimated Avg Win Pool Size was $87,140 calculated as follows:

$87,140 = 129,096 x 0.675


If I had a very large bankroll and were attempting to use a model to scale my bets at Pimlico to realize max revenue - my cap for Win bets in any one race this past weekend at Pimlico would have been about $1500 calculated as follows:

$1,500 = 87,140 x 0.0175


And my cap for Exacta bets in any one race this past weekend at Pimlico would have been about $1800 calculated as follows:

$1,800 = 103,575 x 0.0175




-jp

.


Reply
NYMike
6/24/2021
7:51:41 AM		Jeff,
Something about this 1.75% whale number sounds good for the guppies to me. They have to have people to bet against and cannot just drown the pool with their own money.

My curiosity would be how many whales are dumping their 1.75% into the same race? How many of them are competing against eachother and how much of each race's total handle is whale money?

Thanks,

Mike

Reply
jeff
6/29/2021
4:56:51 AM		Found an article from last July at the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation site reporting handle from HVBS or high volume betting syndicates is thought to be as high as 35 percent of handle in some pools.

TIF Special Report: Racing Not Only For (the) Elite:
https://racingthinktank.com/reports/tif-special-report-racing-not-only-elite

--quote:
"THIS IS NOT YOUR GRANDFATHER’S TAKEOUT

Some private estimates shared with the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation suggest current HVBS participation in racing wagering could be between 30 to 35 percent. Others believe it is smaller, but approaching that. Publicly, there are no such confirmations. That’s part of the problem."
--end quote



My thinking is the 35% figure in the article refers to single jackpot wagers with big carryovers on mandatory payout days.

I've been told privately the overall number for multi-horse exotics is somewhere between 22% and 25%.


-jp

.


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