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| By | New user (Relatively 7 months my experience learning with Jcapper) | |
| Tony_N 3/29/2019 12:35:59 AM | Thought I'd share my experience here, because this really is a good product. I thought I knew things based on things I learned years ago from books and experiences going recreationally to the track (I'm northern California miss Bay Meadows, had ood times there with friends). Excuse me if this is seen as redboarding, ( i'm actually not playing much anymore) but this product Jeff Platt has created is really exceptional. I'll add messages below this to illustrate what I mean.
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| Tony_N 3/29/2019 12:43:03 AM | I tried downloading and exploring data etc back in 2005 (yes that's a long time ago) and came up with a play based on older males in claiming races where they beat each other over the season. I had data for 7 months in 2005 with average number of plays per month at about 180, which meant when my Brother and Law and I went to the track we could expect about 8 or 10 opportunities to score. It worked, we were not serious players but gave us some nice days over the years. I did not have time back then to do further work and the service I used while good left me drowning in data I felt, also kids were still young not much time, so accepted well have a play that can casually use the from for thats fine. Last year as I wrote before it was just not the same. I decided to sign up for Jcapper.
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| Tony_N 3/29/2019 12:50:50 AM | So the old play derived worked like this in 2005. 27.5 percent win rate, average return for a $2.00 bet $2.18 about a 9% return and exactas/doubles were better. By the 7 months it went like this. 2.7, 1.84, 2.35, 1.71, 1.84, 2.87, 2.24. By odds (I dug up the old Database) <1 1.89 1-16 2.15 >16 2.22 So we always played 5 to 1 and up on this, (those divisions I picked to shorten the story)
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| Tony_N 3/29/2019 12:57:41 AM | My first month with Jcapper I wrote a VBA script to extract the data I wanted from the JCP files, put in the rules and got the following. This was some of August/ Early September 2018 data. 131 Plays, 22.4% win rate. Return for $2.00 $1.394. That was ouch, I broke it out by odds. < 1 2.58 1-16 1.425 >16 0 I thought oh well that's no good anymore move on. I experimented in the data window and found lots of good stuff, but failed to see something. The high return at low odds.
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| Tony_N 3/29/2019 1:03:30 AM | After four months use in January this year I decided to revisit it, I was more adept with Jcapper now, could actually get close to my old play in the data window with UDM definitions and noticed the following. The returns for odds on horses in this category for my few weeks of August through January had been. 3.19, 2.94, 2.78, 2.17, 2.19, 2.84. Following this Feb and March so far are 2.25 and 1.96. Nationwide when going off ad odds on there are about 28 to 30 plays a month. The returns with the prior race public favourite in doubles are really the best option.
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| Tony_N 3/29/2019 1:08:39 AM | Now will this hold up, who knows, the win rate is in the 75% range average and does not appear to be affected by the odds. But the point I'd like to make is there is no way I would even be studying this without the use of Jcapper. Also old ideas may no longer apply, especially looking for overlooked longshots (well based on this play). Also I've seen doom and gloom you cannot beat the game (note this is not make a living or retire type performance, but a nice to feel confident play). The ability to look at things old school with nicely laind out past performances is also a plus. Note I have and don't actually bet much anymore but I'm very satisfied with Jcapper as a tool to let me see and learn this, and I still don't fully understand why yet, but I'm confident this tool will help me get there.
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| Tony_N 3/29/2019 1:11:27 AM | So to close, for anyone wondering if they should try computer handicapping, its essential and this product is the way to go, even for casual players. Find a small volume play that is near break even and study it, less is more, you'll learn more.
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