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JCapper 101
-- Impact Definition

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Impact Definition

joe_muller
11/30/2016
11:32:05 PM

It's crazy, but I just realized I don't really know what the definition is for the factors listed in the "impact" column of the results table when you run a UDM in the data window? Is it betting pool impact value? what's the calculation? I've looked around the message board and training materials but can't find it.

Thanks,
Joe M.

jeff
12/1/2016
5:55:02 PM

Impact value is simply win rate for the data point being examined divided by win rate for the total sample.

Example - the following cut and paste from the Data Window shows the month of Nov, 2016 with the data broken out by odds rank:


query start:         12/1/2016 3:41:56 PM
query end:           12/1/2016 3:42:08 PM
elapsed time:        12 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE [DATE] >= #11-01-2016#
      AND [DATE] <= #11-30-2016#
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
`
`
Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals    36247.40      37021.50      36806.80
Bet             -48712.00     -48712.00     -48712.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L             -12464.60     -11690.50     -11905.20
`
Wins                 2965          5910          8722
Plays               24356         24356         24356
PCT                 .1217         .2427         .3581
`
ROI                0.7441        0.7600        0.7556
Avg Mut             12.23          6.26          4.22
`
`
By: Odds Rank
'
Rank       P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1     -781.70    6060.00     0.8710    1148    3030   .3789     3.1123  
 2    -1070.40    5842.00     0.8168     615    2921   .2105     1.7295  
 3    -1193.40    5782.00     0.7936     414    2891   .1432     1.1763  
 4    -1380.30    5786.00     0.7614     287    2893   .0992     0.8149  
 5    -1627.70    5764.00     0.7176     196    2882   .0680     0.5587  
 6    -1841.20    5522.00     0.6666     124    2761   .0449     0.3689  
 7    -1454.50    4748.00     0.6937      87    2374   .0366     0.3010  
 8     -752.10    3672.00     0.7952      52    1836   .0283     0.2327  
 9     -498.30    2574.00     0.8064      30    1287   .0233     0.1915  
10     -703.60    1618.00     0.5651      10     809   .0124     0.1015  
11     -720.80     790.00     0.0876       1     395   .0025     0.0208  
12     -328.60     442.00     0.2566       1     221   .0045     0.0372  
13      -72.00      72.00     0.0000       0      36   .0000     0.0000  
14      -40.00      40.00     0.0000       0      20   .0000     0.0000

Win rate for post time favorites is 0.378878.

Win rate for the total sample is 0.12173591.

Impact value for post time favorites is 3.1123

or:

IV = 0.378878 / 0.12173591

-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff on: 12/1/2016 at: 5:55:02 PM~

joe_muller
12/2/2016
10:51:15 AM

Thanks Jeff!

Joe

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JCapper 101 -- Impact Definition

JCapper 101
-- Impact Definition