I look at PMI as simply being a good indicator of early speed - or put another way: a primary speed factor (with EarlyConsensus and CPace being two other primary speed factors.)
| --Quote: | "
Q. If I had a PMI rank=1 with a CPace rank=5 horse, what would that mean to me as a handicapper?"
"
--End Quote. |
Here is a recent data sample taken from my Q4 2012 folder, all tracks everywhere since Oct 01, 2012, using HDW data files - PMI rank=1 broken out by CPace rank:
UDM Definition: JustPMI
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*
`
PMI: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 1 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL
`
`
query start: 10/20/2012 11:45:16 AM
query end: 10/20/2012 11:45:46 AM
elapsed time: 30 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:
`
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2012\Q4_2012\pL_profile.txt)
`
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 4590.70 4417.20 4356.30
Bet -5048.00 -5048.00 -5048.00
Gain -457.30 -630.80 -691.70
`
Wins 723 1184 1484
Plays 2524 2524 2524
PCT .2865 .4691 .5880
`
ROI 0.9094 0.8750 0.8630
Avg Mut 6.35 3.73 2.94
`
`
By: CPace Rank
`
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -33.50 2336.00 0.9857 396 1168 .3390 1.1836
2 -64.70 1148.00 0.9436 158 574 .2753 0.9609
3 -187.70 756.00 0.7517 90 378 .2381 0.8312
4 -89.40 420.00 0.7871 43 210 .2048 0.7148
5 -48.50 248.00 0.8044 24 124 .1935 0.6757
6 -33.50 140.00 0.7607 12 70 .1714 0.5985
7 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8+ 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
Note that I ran the above query using playlist file mode. I didn't run it in sql mode because I'm not using PMI in my own sql factor setup (although one of the UserFactors that I am using makes for a VERY GOOD alternate.) That said, the above numbers would indicate that win rate for PMI rank=1 horses is stronger when CPace rank is strong too (as opposed to the PMI rank=1 horse with weak CPace.)
Continuing on...
I created an inactive UDM matching up PMI rank=1 with CPace rank=1 or 2. My own experience is that horses flagged by UDMs of this type tend to outrun their odds when they find themselves on surfaces (both dirt and turf at all distances) that are not excessively speed tiring.
Here is the UDM run against the same pl_profile.txt file with the query results broken out by surface:
UDM Definition: PMI_Test
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*
`
CPace: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 2 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
PMI: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 1 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL
`
`
query start: 10/20/2012 11:50:35 AM
query end: 10/20/2012 11:51:01 AM
elapsed time: 26 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:
`
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2012\Q4_2012\pL_profile.txt)
`
`
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 3385.80 3231.10 3051.70
Bet -3484.00 -3484.00 -3484.00
Gain -98.20 -252.90 -432.30
`
Wins 554 892 1065
Plays 1742 1742 1742
PCT .3180 .5121 .6114
`
ROI 0.9718 0.9274 0.8759
Avg Mut 6.11 3.62 2.87
`
`
By: Surface Today
`
Surface Today Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 Unknown
1.00 -198.80 3014.00 0.9340 486 1507 .3225 1.0141 Outer/Main Dirt Course
2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 Inner Dirt Course
3.00 4.80 142.00 1.0338 25 71 .3521 1.1072 Off the Turf
4.00 74.00 306.00 1.2418 39 153 .2549 0.8015 Outer/Main Turf Course
5.00 21.80 22.00 1.9909 4 11 .3636 1.1434 Inner Turf Course
Continuing on...
I added a T* surface constraint to the UDM and reran it against the same pl_profile.txt file with the query results broken out by track code:
UDM Definition: PMI_Test
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: T*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*
`
CPace: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 2 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
PMI: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 1 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL
`
`
query start: 10/20/2012 11:52:30 AM
query end: 10/20/2012 11:52:47 AM
elapsed time: 17 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:
`
Turf (All*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2012\Q4_2012\pL_profile.txt)
`
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 423.80 343.00 311.00
Bet -328.00 -328.00 -328.00
Gain 95.80 15.00 -17.00
`
Wins 43 67 83
Plays 164 164 164
PCT .2622 .4085 .5061
`
ROI 1.2921 1.0457 0.9482
Avg Mut 9.86 5.12 3.75
`
`
****************************************************************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Track Code Run Date: 10/20/2012 11:52:47 AM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
BEL 22 5 0.2273 0.8669 1.2409 9 0.4091 1.1591
CRC 9 5 0.5556 2.119 1.9333 6 0.6667 1.2778
DEL 9 4 0.4444 1.6949 1.9333 5 0.5556 1.1556
GGX 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HAW 6 2 0.3333 1.2712 2.5 2 0.3333 1.4
KEE 21 8 0.381 1.4531 2.0619 11 0.5238 1.4857
LRL 19 4 0.2105 0.8028 0.9842 9 0.4737 1.4211
MED 8 2 0.25 0.9535 0.9375 2 0.25 0.55
MTH 2 1 0.5 1.907 1.45 1 0.5 0.9
PHA 9 1 0.1111 0.4237 0.3111 2 0.2222 0.4667
RPX 20 5 0.25 0.9535 0.775 7 0.35 0.64
SAX 20 5 0.25 0.9535 2.035 6 0.3 1.015
TUP 6 1 0.1667 0.6358 0.5667 2 0.3333 0.6
WOX 10 0 0 0 0 5 0.5 1.04
****************************************************************************************
14 Track Codes from file: C:\2012\Q4_2012\pL_profile.txt
****************************************************************************************
Continuing on...
One way of using PMI (or any early speed indicator) in your handicapping is to look for horses with an advantage in early speed that are:
a. racing on a surface that is not detrimental to their way of going.
b. overlooked (a little) in the odds.
Note that I chose turf for purposes of this example because turf surfaces CAN be speed favoring and in such cases speed on the turf CAN be overlooked.
-jp
.
~Edited by: jeff on: 10/20/2012 at: 2:29:10 PM~
| 