JCapper Message Board

JCapper 101
-- Expected Values

Home	Register Log In

Expected Values

busseb
7/26/2011
4:35:13 PM

Tried to use some expected values in SQL UDMs and wasn't sure if any/all are dependent on raceday tote odds.

upropinionprob
uprzscoreprob
euprzscoreprob

and this one wouldn't work (need correct spelling):
euptoteprob

Thanks!
ElPaso

jeff
7/26/2011
5:06:50 PM

Probability estimates before the odds are known:

UPROpinionProb
UPRZScoreProb
UPRMLProb
JPRMLProb

Numbers after the odds are known:

BettorsToteProb
EBettorsToteProb
EUPRZScoreProb
JPRToteprob
OR3

-jp

.

busseb
8/5/2012
11:04:06 AM

Is there a way to get rank and gap for:

(Probability estimates before the odds are known:)
UPROpinionProb
UPRZScoreProb
UPRMLProb
JPRMLProb

in SQL mode?

jeff
8/5/2012
2:00:51 PM

Cut and paste from the Table Schema:
http://www.jcapper.com/helpdocs/starterhistorytableschema.html


mline			number single	morning line odds
rankmline		number integer	rank morning line odds
mlor			number single	MLOR - morning line odds ratio
mlor2			number single	MLOR2 – morning line odds ratio 2
mlor3			number single	MLOR3 – morning line odds ratio 3

bettorstoteprob		number single 	BettorsToteProb - prob based on proprietary algorithm and post time odds
rankBettorsToteProb	number integer	rank BettorsToteProb

jprtoteprob		number single 	JPRToteProb - prob based on JPR and post time odds
uprtoteprob		number single 	UPRToteProb - prob based on UPR and post time odds
uprzscoreprob		number single 	UPRZScoreProb - prob based on normalized ZScore distribution of UPR
upropinionprob		number single	UPROpinionProb - prob based on rank and gap of UPR

aprob			number single 	AProb (JRating enabled users only)
rankaprob		number integer	rank AProb
gapaprob		number single	gap AProb

jprmlprob		number single 	JPRMLProb
rank jprmlprob		number integer	rank JPRMLProb
gap jprmlprob		number single	gap JPRMLProb

uprmlprob		number single 	UPRMLProb
rank uprmlprob		number integer	rank UPRMLProb
gap uprmlprob		number single	gap UPRMLProb

or3			number single	OR3 Odds Ratio 3
ebettorstoteprob	number single	Expected Value BettorsToteProb
euprzscoreprob		number single	Expected Value UPRZScoreProb	
ejptoteprob		number single	Expected Value JPRToteProb	
euptoteprob		number single	Expected Value UPRToteProb

JPRMLProb: Yes
Use RANKJPRMLPROB and GAPJPRMLPROB as your sql expression handles.

UPRMLProb: Yes
Use RANKUPRMLPROB and GAPUPRMLPROB as your sql expression handles.

UPROpinionProb and UPRZScoreProb: No

-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff on: 8/5/2012 at: 2:00:51 PM~

busseb
8/5/2012
8:05:00 PM

On the no's -

not even as a if I use translate
for a UserFactor?

And if I wanted to ditch one of my UserFactors,
how would I find out which UDM's currently have
UF5 in the criteria? Is there an easy way?

El Paso

~Edited by: busseb on: 8/5/2012 at: 8:05:00 PM~

jeff
8/6/2012
4:48:14 PM

No. (That's the short answer.)

No. It's a chicken or the egg type of thing. You can't pull an egg out of thin air unless you have a chicken first because the chicken has to make the egg.

That might be a little deep. But it's the non technical short version of the long answer.

For anyone who might be interested, here's the technical version:

You can't use UPROpinionProb and UPRZScoreProb as inputs for UserFactors and UPR because doing so would violate the chain of events executed by the program when you click the Calc Races or Build Database buttons.

UPROpinionProb and UPRZScoreProb are two of the very last things created by the program's event chain. Both get created after UserFactors and UPR are created - and both UPROpinionProb and UPRZScoreProb require UPR as an input before they can be created.

Here's a link to an older thread where the topic of the program's event chain is presented:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=770&forum=JCapper%20101

-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff on: 8/6/2012 at: 4:48:14 PM~

jeff
8/6/2012
5:12:15 PM

--quote:

"And if I wanted to ditch one of my UserFactors,
how would I find out which UDM's currently have
UF5 in the criteria? Is there an easy way?

El Paso"

--end quote

When you run a UDM through the Data Window, the UDM Definition gets displayed in the header area as part of your results.

So pick a UDM, run it through the Data Window - and take a look at the UDM Definition. You should be able to see at a glance if you've included a UserFactor as part of the UDM Definition.

-jp

.

JCapper Message Board

JCapper 101 -- Expected Values

JCapper 101
-- Expected Values