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First Time Starters

Caveat
8/18/2022
6:28:01 AM

These are a few factors that have values for FTS Horses

jpr..alchemy..prating..qrating
ALL the Consensuses..EARLY LATE FORM CLASS FIGS
and
CPACE & PACEFIT

Since there is no race info for them

Is there a reason why?

Thxs

~Edited by: Caveat on: 8/18/2022 at: 6:28:01 AM~

jeff
8/22/2022
12:04:31 AM

The entries for the DEFAULT GroupName in the ImpactValues table reveal JPR is made up of the following primary factors:

• AFR
• CANTRUNXFORMATTRIB
• CFA
• CPACE
• MLINE
• OPT POINTS
• WOSINCE
• XTHSTARTOFFOFLAYOFF

In turn, each of those primary factors is made up of more basic factor inputs.

For example:

AFR is made up of Workouts and Positional Calls.

CFA is made up of Early Pace Figs, Late Pace Figs, and Final Time Speed Figs.

FTS or first time starters do not have positional calls, pace figs, or final time speed figs from running lines.

So FTS horses score out towards the low end of the CFA scale.

First time starters do have morning line odds based on the opinion of the track's morning line odds maker.

A limited few will end up being graded as the morning line favorite.

FTS horses absolutely do have AFR based on their workouts.

The limited few with top workouts often score out towards the high end for both AFR and Opt Points.

Should FTS horses have something other than zero for JPR given that they haven't yet earned a speed or pace fig?

If that is what you are asking, my answer would be:

Look at calendar year 2022 for FTS horses with the data broken out by JPR numeric value and get back to me.

-jp

.

Caveat
8/22/2022
11:53:54 AM

code:

 query start:         8/22/2022 12:43:36 PM
     query end:           8/22/2022 12:43:38 PM
     elapsed time:        2 seconds

     Data Window Settings:
     Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

     SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
           WHERE [DATE] >= #01-01-2022#
           AND [DATE] <= #12-31-2022#
           AND STARTSLIFETIME = 0


     Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals    14218.66      13488.92      12869.30
     Bet             -18438.00     -18438.00     -18438.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L              -4219.34      -4949.08      -5568.70

     Wins                 1013          1983          2921
     Plays                9219          9219          9219
     PCT                 .1099         .2151         .3168

     ROI                0.7712        0.7316        0.6980
     Avg Mut             14.04          6.80          4.41


     By: JPR

       >=Min        < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct   Impact
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   -999.0000      15.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
     15.0000      20.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
     20.0000      25.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
     25.0000      30.0000    -429.40     818.00     0.4751       6     409   .0147   0.1335
     30.0000      35.0000   -1083.52    3982.00     0.7279      79    1991   .0397   0.3611
     35.0000      40.0000   -1125.10    5270.00     0.7865     189    2635   .0717   0.6528
     40.0000      45.0000    -842.00    3230.00     0.7393     170    1615   .1053   0.9580
     45.0000      50.0000    -341.02    2672.00     0.8724     226    1336   .1692   1.5395
     50.0000      55.0000    -169.40     818.00     0.7929      87     409   .2127   1.9358
     55.0000      60.0000    -156.14     794.00     0.8034      98     397   .2469   2.2465
     60.0000      65.0000     -79.86     466.00     0.8286      73     233   .3133   2.8513
     65.0000      70.0000     -10.40     280.00     0.9629      56     140   .4000   3.6403
     70.0000      75.0000      17.70     100.00     1.1770      27      50   .5400   4.9144
     75.0000      80.0000      -0.20       8.00     0.9750       2       4   .5000   4.5503
     80.0000      85.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
     85.0000      90.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
     90.0000      95.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
     95.0000     100.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
    100.0000     105.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
    105.0000    9999.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000



Ending BankRoll:       $39.90
Starting BankRoll:     $500.00
High BankRoll:         $927.70
Low BankRoll:          $39.90
Longest Losing Streak: 50.00
Bet Percentage:        0.0250
Max Bet:               500.00

Yes, for 2022 its looks quite good over VAL >=65
But for 2021 , its same ole story of .87 ROI
as thats another story...

So your saying remnants of some factors end up in the "CONSENSUS" Factors giving them a value of sorts?

jeff
8/23/2022
2:20:20 PM

--quote:

"Yes, for 2022 its looks quite good over VAL >=65
But for 2021 , its same ole story of .87 ROI
as thats another story...

So your saying remnants of some factors end up in the "CONSENSUS" Factors giving them a value of sorts?"

--end quote

Actually, the 2022 JPR data for FTS at my end is a little stronger than what you posted.

Link to a text file that contains Data Window output: here.

Guessing this might have something to do with me having the Data Transformations Setting toggled On in the Enhanced Settings Module.

The only way to really know would be to compare all settings.

But that's a separate discussion than the original question posed at the top of this thread:

Why did you (Jeff the JCapper program author) create factors that score FTS horses as having anything except zero for numeric value?

Think of it this way:

Speed Figs and factors other than speed figs such as form, workouts, breeding, rider, trainer, post position, etc. often compliment each other.

Taken alone, each is likely to get you the dreaded 0.87 roi that you posted about.

But each has the ability to improve the other.

When used as building blocks to form a Consensus factor, UserFactor, UPR, or a proper Fundamental Model:

The result can be stronger, and get you closer to +EV, than the individual parts.

Also, hidden beneath the surface of the dreaded 0.87 roi that you posted about:

There are always going to be subsets that inexplicably rise to +EV potential. And just as inexplicably revert back to the mean. While some other subset inexplicably rises to +EV potential for a while.

And every once in a while some of those subsets have longer shelf lives than you might expect.

This has been going on since I first started looking at data back in the mid 1980's.

Imo, the data posted in this thread shows:

Factors that score out FTS horses as other than zero based on workouts, breeding, rider, trainer, post position, etc. have the ability to be stronger than factors that simply score out FTS horses as zero.

This isn't just true for some of the Consensus factors in JCapper and JPR.

It's also true for custom factors you can create in JCapper such as Alchemy, PRating, QRating, UserFactors, UPR, UPRMLProb, and BettorsToteProb, etc.

-jp

.

JCapper Message Board

General Discussion -- First Time Starters

General Discussion
-- First Time Starters