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                      -- HANA Horseplayer Monthly 2018 Breeders Cup Issue

"Welcome to the November 2018 Issue:

Breeders' Cup time is here again, and our November issue is dedicated to those championship races, with Q & A's, race previews, and a Breeders' Cup-specific stats pack (2011-17) courtesy of HANA President Jeff Platt to help you with your handicapping!

This issue also includes a look back at harness racing's Breeders Crown and the usual Quick Hits to get you caught up on the news in the industry.

Click here to read that and much more!

"

"BREEDERS CUP 2018 STAT PACKAGE

From a betting perspective, The Breeders Cup is very different than what you get for a typical weekend of racing. In many of the races the fields are large and true contention runs deep.

That means favorites have a lower win percentage than normal.

It also means when you have a valid opinion and one of your contenders wins - you can get paid.

The query results in the following two tables should help illustrate this point.

This first table shows what would have happened had you bet $2.00 to Win, Place, and Show on every starter on Breeders Cup Friday and Breeders Cup Saturday over the past seven years that met the following criteria with no other handicapping whatsoever:

Post Time Odds >= FieldSize divided by 1.5

     query start:         10/23/2018 4:20:36 PM
     query end:           10/23/2018 4:20:37 PM
     elapsed time:        1 seconds

     Data Window Settings:
     Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_BC-CS2.mdb
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None

     SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
           WHERE [DATE] >= #01-01-2011# 
           AND [DATE] <= #12-31-2017# 
           AND ODDS >= CINT(FIELDSIZE/1.5) 
           ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


     Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals     2125.80       1553.00       1549.10
     Bet              -2244.00      -2244.00      -2244.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L               -118.20       -691.00       -694.90

     Wins                   54           107           197
     Plays                1122          1122          1122
     PCT                 .0481         .0954         .1756

     ROI                0.9473        0.6921        0.6903
     Avg Mut             39.37         14.51          7.86

In the table below, I've broken the above Breeders Cup win pool data out by day of week:

     
     By: Calendar Day Of Week

     Day        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     FRI    -272.60     980.00     0.7218      19     490   .0388     0.8057      37.23
     SAT     154.40    1264.00     1.1222      35     632   .0554     1.1507      40.53

Note that the strategy (post time odds greater than or equal to FieldSize divided by 1.5) has actually produced profitable win pool results on Breeders Cup Saturday over the past seven years.

Keep in mind that I'm not advocating this as a strategy. But I do think it's noteworthy.

I wanted to include the above table in this write up because it helps illustrate the way I think about the Breeders Cup:

In many of the races the fields are large, contention runs deep, and there is VALUE to be had."