• Prob Expressions - General Overview.
• What is a Prob Expression?
• Prob Expression Scoring illustration using Behavior 23
• Prob Expression Syntax - Explained
• The Prob Expressions Tool
• Naming your Prob Expressions
• Testing your Prob Expressions
• Other Considerations
• The SQL CHRON BUILD Setting on the User Sys Defs Screen
• POPULATING THE STARTERHISTORY TABLE
• AVOIDING AFTER THE FACT QUERY RESULTS
• SUPPORTED BEHAVIORS FOR PROB EXPRESSIONS
• Adding Containerless Prob Expressions to your SQL Factor Setup
• Using Containerless Prob Expressions in SQL UDMs
• Implementing a Prob Expression in a UserFactor or UPR GroupName
• How to avoid 'aliasing' between Prob Expressions
• SUPPORTED FACTOR HANDLES FOR PROB EXPRESSIONS

1. Introduce a new concept in JCapper UPR Tools¹ called a Prob Expression.


2. Walk you through Prob Expression sql syntax.


3. Walk you through using the Prob Expressions Tool in UPR Tools to manage Prob Expressions.


4. Point out basic stuff you need to be aware of - such as optimizing query speed, avoiding after the fact results, using the Chron Build Setting, and avoiding aliasing.


5. Take you step by step - complete with screenshots - through the process of assigning a Prob Expression to your SQL Factor Setup. And from there, point out some of the things you need to be aware of when displaying Prob Expressions on your SQL HTML Report.


6. Show you how to add containerless Prob Expressions to your SQL UDMs.


7. Take you step by step through the process of adding a Prob Expression to a UserFactor or UPR GroupName.


8. Present you with a list of valid behaviors and factor handles for JCapper factors that are supported in the Prob Expressions Tool in UPR Tools.

1. Understand what a Prob Expression is.
2. Understand what a containerless Prob Expression is.
3. Understand Prob Expression naming conventions.
4. Understand SQL Syntax for Prob Expressions.
5. Optimize the query speed of your Prob Expressions.
6. Avoid after the fact results.
7. Use the SQL Chron Build Setting to optimize DB Builds for Prob Expressions.
8. Create, edit, clone, and delete Prob Expressions.
9. Have a basic understanding of Prob Expression Factor Handles.
10. Have a basic understanding of Prob Expression Behaviors.
11. Add Prob Expressions to your SQL Factor Setup.
12. Display Prob Expressions on your SQL HTML Report.
13. Use Prob Expressions in your SQL UDMs.
14. Add Prob Expressions to Userfactors and UPR.
15. Avoid aliasing.

1. Prob Expressions that are contained in a UserFactor or UPR GroupName.


2. Prob Expressions that are not contained in a UserFactor or UPR GroupName - but that have been assigned their own F-Slot number in your SQL Factor Setup.
   
   Note: This type of Prob Expression is known as a "containerless" Prob Expression.

• The Prob Expression is executed for each horse in the race - one horse at a time.


• Let's assume for purposes of this example that the first horse in the race happens to be EarlyConsensus rank = 1 and that the returned query results have a Win-Place percentage of 0.4186. The Prob Expression factor score generated by the interface for the first horse in the race would be 0.4186.


• Let's assume for purposes of this example that the second horse in the race happens to be EarlyConsensus rank = 2 and that the returned query results reveal a Win-Place percentage of 0.3103. The Prob Expression factor score generated by the interface for the second horse in the race would be 0.3103.


• Let's assume for purposes of this example that the third horse in the race happens to be EarlyConsensus rank = 3 and that the returned query results reveal a Win-Place percentage of 0.2144. The Prob Expression factor score generated by the interface for the third horse in the race would be 0.2144.


• The interface keeps executing the Prob Expression until every horse in the race has been scored. (And from there, program flow moves on to the next race where the process is repeated.)

	SELECT TOP 80 * FROM STARTERHISTORY 
       		WHERE TRACK = {TRACK}   
       		AND DIST = {DIST}   
       		AND INTSURFACE = {INTSURFACE}   
       		AND RAILPOSITION = {RAILPOSITION}   
       		AND [DATE] < {TODAY}   
       		ORDER BY [DATE] DESC

	SELECT TOP 80 * FROM STARTERHISTORY 

       	ORDER BY [DATE] DESC

	WHERE TRACK = {TRACK}

	AND DIST = {DIST}

	AND DIST = {DIST_TYPE}

• If DIST for the current race is < 1760:
  Distance type for the current race is recognized as Sprint:
  AND DIST = {DIST_TYPE} becomes AND DIST < 1760 prior to execution.


• If DIST for the current race is >= 1760:
  Distance type for the current race is recognized as Route:
  AND DIST = {DIST_TYPE} becomes AND DIST >= 1760 prior to execution.

	AND INTSURFACE = {INTSURFACE}

	AND INTSURFACE = {SURF_TYPE}

• If INTSURFACE for the current race is <= 3:
  Surface type for the current race is recognized as Dirt:
  AND INTSURFACE = {SURF_TYPE} becomes AND INTSURFACE <= 3 prior to execution.


• If INTSURFACE for the current race is >= 4:
  Surface type for the current race is recognized as Turf:
  AND INTSURFACE = {SURF_TYPE} becomes AND INTSURFACE >= 4 prior to execution.

	AND RAILPOSITION = {RAILPOSITION}

• {TRACK}: The Table Schema shows an actual TRACK field.
• {DIST}: The Table Schema shows an actual DIST field.
• {INTSURFACE}: The Table Schema shows an actual INSTSURFACE field.
• {RAILPOSITION}: The Table Schema shows an actual RAILPOSITION field.
• {TODAY}: {TODAY} always refers to the [DATE] field and the Table Schema shows an actual [DATE] field.

	AND [DATE] < {TODAY}

1. On the Main Module click the System Settings button.


2. On the System Settings Interface click the UPR Tools button.


3. On the UPR Tools Menu click the Prob Expressions button.

1. Key valid sql for your Prob Expression into the SQL (or main) textbox.
   Hint: Use the Assist button to get started.


2. NAME your Prob Expression by keying a unique name into the Name textbox.
   Hint: See the section about Naming your Prob Expressions (below.)


3. SAVE your work by clicking the Save button.

1. Select the name of the Prob Expression you want to edit from the Available Prob Expressions drop down.


2. Key any edits you want to make to the Prob Expression's sql into the SQL (or main) textbox.
   Hint: Read the explanation for valid Prob Expression syntax (above) in this help doc.


3. SAVE your work by clicking the Save button.

1. Open the Available Prob Expressions drop down and select the name of the Prob Expression you want to clone.


2. Key any edits you want to make to the Prob Expression's sql into the SQL (or main) textbox.
   Hint: Read the explanation for valid Prob Expression syntax (above) in this help doc.


3. NAME your (new) Prob Expression by keying a (new) unique name into the Name textbox.
   Hint: See the section about Naming your Prob Expressions (below.)


4. SAVE your work by clicking the Save button.

1. Open the Available Prob Expressions drop down and select the name of the Prob Expression you want to delete.


2. Double check the NAME of the Prob Expression you are about to delete by looking at the unique name into the Name textbox.


3. Click the Delete button and answer Yes at the prompt.

AND INSTR('MORELAND THOMAS W', TRAINER) > 0 

AND INSTR('INSTR('MOREL
           AND THOMAS W', TRAINER) > 0', TRAINER) > 0 

1. If a sql expression is not referencing names and it contains many factor constraints - and you want to make it easier to read - feel free to leave auto formatting on (uncheck the box) before saving it.


2. If a sql expression references names - ALWAYS turn Auto Formatting Off (check the box) before saving it.


3. If you don't care what your sql expressions look like in the Data Window - but you DO care that they return accurate results! -- ALWAYS turn Auto Formatting Off (check the box) before saving a sql expression. (That way you never have to worry about whether or not the interface is going to insert line breaks into your sql expressions.)

SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY

SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY WHERE 
	                 STARTSLIFETIME > 0 
                         AND RANKF08 <= 10
                         AND GAPF15 >= -150
			 AND RANKF19 <= 3
			 AND RANKJPR = 1
	

SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY WHERE 
                         RANKJPR = 1
                         AND RANKF19 <= 3
                         AND GAPF15 >= -150
                         AND RANKF08 <= 10
			 STARTSLIFETIME > 0 
	

1. If you have Prob Expressions spanning multiple track codes:
   
   
   • Check the SQL Chron Build box on the User Sys Defs Screen for Mode3 and Mode 4 Build Database Routines.
   
   
   • You can leave the SQL Chron Build box on the User Sys Defs Screen unchecked for daily Mode5 Build Database Routines.
   
   
2. If you don't have Prob Expressions spanning multiple track codes:
   
   
   • You can leave the SQL Chron Build box on the User Sys Defs Screen unchecked for all Build Database Routines.

1. Running Build Database routines in Mode 3, Mode4, or Mode5.



2. Running JCapper2 Import routines to import StarterHistory Table, SQL Mode F-Factor Setup, and SQL Mode Customizable HTML Report Layout data out of a source JCapper2.mdb file into a target JCapper2.mdb file.
   
   Note: If the StarterHistory table in your source JCapper2.mdb contains data fields where Containerless Prob Expressions have been assigned - those data fields must have been populated by running Build Database routines in Mode 3, Mode4, or Mode5.

		AND [DATE] < {TODAY}

		AND [DATE] <= {TODAY}

		AND [DATE] = {TODAY}

		AND [DATE] >= {TODAY}

		AND [DATE] > {TODAY}

• 18 WinPct
• 19 WinRoi
• 20 WinRoiOddsCapped
• 21 WinPwrWt
• 22 WinPwrWtOddsCapped


• 23 WinPlacePct
• 24 WinPlaceRoi
• 25 WinPlaceRoiOddsCapped
• 26 WinPlacePwrWt


• 26.1 WPS 321 PwrWt
• 26.15 WPS 10`5`2 PwrWt
• 26.2 MVP Pct
• 26.3 MVP 321 PwrWt
• 26.4 MVP 10`5`2 PwrWt
• 26.5 ` 1/(RailPos-Bandwith PwrWt)
• 26.6 RailPos-Bandwith PwrWt
• 26.7 FactorByRailPos PwrWt
• 26.75 FactorByRailPos MVP PwrWt
• 26.8 RailPosByFactor PwrWt
• 26.85 RailPosByFactor MVP PwrWt


• 27 WinPlacePwrWtOddsCapped
• 28 Actual Vs. Expected
• 29 Fx


• 30 Log(WinPct
• 31 Log(WinRoi)
• 32 Log(WinRoiOddsCapped)
• 33 Log(WinPwrWt)
• 34 Log(WinPwrWtOddsCapped)


• 35 Log(WinPlacePct)
• 36 Log(WinPlaceRoi)
• 37 Log(WinPlaceRoiOddsCapped)
• 38 Log(WinPlacePwrWt)
• 39 Log(WinPlacePwrWtOddsCapped)
• 40 Log(Actual Vs. Expected)
• 41 Log(Fx)

1. On Screen One of the SQL Factor Setup Wizard - when assigning a Prob Expression its own F-Slot number in your SQL Factor Setup. (A containerless Prob Expression.)


2. In UPR Tools - when adding entries for a Prob Expression to a UserFactor or UPR GroupName. (A Prob Expression contained in a UserFactor or UPR GroupName.)

SELECT TOP 80 * FROM STARTERHISTORY 
       		WHERE TRACK = {TRACK}   
       		AND RIDER = {RIDER}   
       		AND TRAINER = {TRAINER}   
       		AND [DATE] < {TODAY}   
       		ORDER BY [DATE] DESC

1. The above Prob Expression could be assigned to slot number F01 on Screen One of the SQL Factor Setup Wizard using Behavior 23 - causing the interface to score the returned query results for each horse as WIN-PLACE PCT.
   
   You could also add slot number F01 to your customizable SQL HTML Report Layout - with the end result being that WIN-PLACE PCT for the RIDER-TRAINER of each horse now displays on your SQL HTML Report.


2. You could select the above Prob Expression in the Prob Expressions Tool and (using it as a template) save it a second time - using a different (but similar) name.
   
   From there you could assign this second (cloned) instance of the same Prob Expression to slot number F02 on Screen One of the SQL Factor Setup Wizard using Behavior 19 - causing the interface to score the returned query results for this instance of the Prob Expression as WIN ROI.
   
   You could also add slot number F02 to your customizable SQL HTML Report Layout - with the end result being that WIN ROI for the RIDER-TRAINER of each horse now displays on your SQL HTML Report.


3. You could bring up UPR Tools and from there - add either instance of the above Prob Expression to a UserFactor or UPR GroupName. You can do this for as many ImpactValues table entries as you see fit. And so long as you use a valid Prob Expression Behavior - each ImpactValues table entry can have a different Behavior.

1. Launch the Prob Expressions Tool, key the expression, give it a name, click the Save button, and X-out of the Prob Expressions Tool.
   
   Screenshot:
   
   
   
   Note: The above screenshot shows the UPR Tools Prob Expressions Tool after a Prob Expression named _RDR-TNR-80 has been keyed and saved.


2. Launch the SQL Factor Setup Wizard. On Screen One of the SQL Factor Setup Wizard: Add the desired Prob Expression to an open F-Slot Number.


3. Then, single click the (just assigned) Prob Expression to highlight it, and with the Prob Expression highlighted, click the Behavior button to launch the Prob Expressions Behavior Tool. From there, select a valid Behavior (18-39) and click the Apply button to apply the selected behavior and save your work. Then X-out of the Prob Expressions Behavior Tool.
   
   Screenshot:
   
   
   
   Note: The above screenshot shows Screen One of the SQL Factor Setup Wizard after a Prob Expression named _RDR-TNR-80 (highlighted in blue) was assigned to Slot Number F04 with Behavior 23 (WIN-PLACE PCT) applied.

	AND RANKF14 = 1
	AND GAPF14 >= 0.0725
        AND VALF14 >= 0.1725

1. Launch the UPR Tools Classic View and click the New button to initiate the sequence for a new entry.


2. Key a valid GroupName into the GroupName field (or alternately select an existing GroupName from the GroupName drop down.)


3. Check the Active box.


4. Select an existing Prob Expression name from the factors drop down.
   
   
   Important: Read the section (below) for info on how to avoid 'aliasing' between Prob Expressions you are using in a UPR GroupName and Containerless Prob Expressions you are using in your SQL Factor Setup.


5. Click inside the Behavior field. This will cause the Behavior Tool to appear. Open up the Behaviors drop down and select a valid Prob Expression Behavior (from 18 to 41) and then click the Apply button.
   
   --Notes: If you want the interface to score the Prob Expression query results as simple WIN PCT use Behavior 18. If you want WIN ROI use Behavior 19. A complete list of current supported Behaviors for Prob Expressions is shown above. (Use the Behavior that matches the way you want the Prob Expression's query results to be scored.)
   
   --If you open up the drop down in the Behaviors Tool and scroll through the behaviors themselves - you will notice they are broken out into sections - one section for each type of model supported in UPR Tools. You will also notice that Prob Expressions has its own section beginning with Behavior 18 and ending with Behavior 41. Behaviors 18-41 are the only Behaviors you should be using for Prob Expressions in UPR Tools Classic View.
   
   Important: You should avoid using Behaviors 18-41 with standard (non Prob Expression) JCapper factors in UPR Tools Classic View (as the interface is not programmed to handle that.)


6. Key a value into the Weight field. (Use 1.00 if the Prob Expression is the only factor in the GroupName. Otherwise, scale your weights to refelct relative importance among the factors you are using in the GroupName.)


7. Select a valid Surf-Dist option from the drop down.
   
   --Hint: Select ALL * to auto-populate the user interface for all surface-distances.


8. Key entries for min and max Field Size or Dist (optional.)


9. Key any entries for Track, AvoidTrack, or ClassDescriptor (optional.)


10. Key entries for High Score and Low Score/Default Impact.
    
    --Hint: Use 9999 for High Score and -9999 for Low Score/Default Impact. (This works for about 99.9% of all cases.)


11. Click the Save button.

Screenshot:

1. Execute the Prob Expression named "_TNR_TK_TYPE100_b23" (without the quotes.)
2. Score the query results as win-place pct. (Factor Numeric Value is equal to the scored query results.)
3. Calculate Rank and Gap for the scored query results.
4. Write numeric value, rank, and gap for the scored query results to the data fields in the StartersToday table for USERFACTOR6.

• The act of creating or modifying entries in UPR Tools doesn't change existing records in your StarterHistory table.
• You must rebuild databases from scratch before you can use the Data Window to see the effect of changes you've made in UPR Tools!

--Race level factors:

• {TODAY}
• {RACEDATE}
• {TRACK}
• {CLASSDESCRIPTOR}
• {INTSURFACE}
• {SURF_TYPE}
• {DIST}
• {DIST_TYPE}


• {DISTANCE}
• {FIELDSIZE}
• {FTSCOUNT}
• {PACEINDEX}
• {PACEPRESSURE}
• {ESPRACESHAPE}
• {RACEVOLATILITY}

--Horse level factors:
• {POS2CALL}
• {POSFINCALL}
• {DRIVETYPE}
• {CANTRUNXFORMATTRIB}
• {STAGEREADINESS}


• {RAILPOSITION}
• {RUNSTYLE}
• {QSPEEDPOINTS}


• {RANKEARLYCONSENSUS}
• {RANKLATECONSENSUS}
• {RANKCLASSCONSENSUS}
• {RANKFIGCONSENSUS}
• {RANKFORMCONSENSUS}


• {RANKJPR}
• {RANKJPRCLASS}
• {RANKQRATING}
• {RANKALCHEMY}
• {RANKPRIME}
• {RANKPSR}
• {RANKMLINE}
• {RANKPEDRATING}


• {RANKCPACE}
• {RANKV1}
• {RANKCOMPOUNDAP}
• {RANKCOMPOUNDSP}
• {RANKCOMPOUNDLATE}
• {RANKCOMPOUNDPACEFIT}


• {RANKCFA}
• {RANKOPTIMIZATION}


• {RANKUSERFACTOR1}
• {RANKUSERFACTOR2}
• {RANKUSERFACTOR3}
• {RANKUSERFACTOR4}
• {RANKUSERFACTOR5}
• {RANKUSERFACTOR6}
• {RANKUSERFACTOR7}
• {RANKUSERFACTOR8}

--Name based factors:
• {RIDER}
• {TRAINER}
• {OWNER}


• {SIRE}
• {SIRESSIRE}
• {DAM}
• {DAMSSIRE}