General Overview
Presented below are results of some benchmark tests using JCapper to look at the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of some of the factors found in the program.
2012 YTD HDW Numbers Generated from JCapper Silver:
Link to a text file that contains 2012 YTD numbers for a handful of factors generated using the FREE HDW enabled version of JCapper Silver:
click here.
Player's Expectation:
Link to a text file that contains numbers showing the player's expectation based on making a flat $2.00 wager on every thoroughbred
starter in every thoroughbred race run in North America during calendar years 2011 and 2012:
click here.
All older results presented below were derived using JCapper and Bris single format drf data files.
Foundations of Database Handicapping
This Help Doc contains calendar year 2006 Benchmark Tests for many of the newer factors found in JCapper2007 and illustrates how
database handicapping can help your game. To read this help doc
click here.
Initial Benchmark Tests from Jan-Feb, 2004
During the first two months of 2004, I ran some benchmark tests for quite a few of the factors found in JCapper under a variety of conditions.
To see the results of those initial benchmark tests, click here.
Calendar Year 2004 Benchmark Tests
One of the things I did during calendar year 2004 was compile Starter Database Files for each of the following 12 tracks:
During the compilation of these starter database files I made every attempt to include every race card for the entire year for each of the tracks
listed above.
JRating vs Bris Prime Power
Here's what I have for the tracks listed above (every race in the Starter Database - all distances, surfaces, and classes) based on a flat $2.00 win bet with no further handicapping whatsoever and no attempt to break ties:
All Odds Ranges - By JRating Rank
Rank
Gain
Bet
Roi
Wins
Plays
Pct
1
-377.30
16558.00
0.9772
2025
8279
.2446
2
-2754.10
16564.00
0.8337
1422
8282
.1717
3
-3700.10
16526.00
0.7761
1197
8263
.1449
All Odds Ranges - By Prime Power Rank
Rank
Gain
Bet
Roi
Wins
Plays
Pct
1
-2703.40
16912.00
0.8401
2518
8456
.2978
2
-2271.10
17008.00
0.8665
1698
8504
.1997
3
-2490.70
17122.00
0.8545
1270
8561
.1483
6-1 and up - By JRating Rank
Rank
Gain
Bet
Roi
Wins
Plays
Pct
1
705.60
4690.00
1.1504
218
2345
.0930
2
-872.70
6774.00
0.8712
248
3387
.0732
3
-2486.60
8260.00
0.6990
232
4130
.0562
6-1 and up - By Prime Power Rank
Rank
Gain
Bet
Roi
Wins
Plays
Pct
1
-150.70
1288.00
0.8830
58
644
.0901
2
-647.00
4100.00
0.8422
171
2050
.0834
3
-1007.80
7568.00
0.8668
304
3784
.0803
Out of the Box UDMs
Here's a recap based on a flat $2.00 win bet on every horse selected by the two Out of the Box UDMs using JCapper's AProb Odds Line for calendar year 2004 at
each of the 12 tracks listed above:
DS_JCapper_OOB - with the AProb OL
Data Summary
Win
Place
Show
Mutuel Totals
3343.80
3061.70
2839.80
Bet
-3160.00
-3160.00
-3160.00
Gain
183.80
-98.30
-320.20
Wins
258
513
724
Plays
1580
1580
1580
PCT
.1633
.3247
.4582
ROI
1.0582
0.9689
0.8987
Avg Mut
12.96
5.97
3.92
By Odds Range-
Min
Max
Gain
Bet
Roi
Wins
Plays
Pct
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
1.50
2.00
-15.00
54.00
0.7222
7
27
.2593
2.00
2.50
-12.10
154.00
0.9214
22
77
.2857
2.50
3.00
-32.40
236.00
0.8627
28
118
.2373
3.00
3.50
-43.10
262.00
0.8355
26
131
.1985
3.50
4.00
-23.20
212.00
0.8906
20
106
.1887
4.00
4.50
-50.60
238.00
0.7874
18
119
.1513
4.50
5.00
56.00
194.00
1.2887
22
97
.2268
5.00
5.50
35.80
186.00
1.1925
18
93
.1935
5.50
6.00
21.80
152.00
1.1434
13
76
.1711
6.00
6.50
55.40
146.00
1.3795
14
73
.1918
6.50
7.00
19.00
134.00
1.1418
10
67
.1493
7.00
7.50
-21.00
120.00
0.8250
6
60
.1000
7.50
8.00
34.60
70.00
1.4943
6
35
.1714
8.00
8.50
18.60
110.00
1.1691
7
55
.1273
8.50
9.00
29.00
78.00
1.3718
6
39
.1538
9.00
9999.00
111.00
814.00
1.1364
35
407
.0860
And, for anyone interested, here's a link to the complete list of plays selected by
the UDM using the AProb OL during calendar year 2004:
DS_JCapper_OOB.txt
DR_JCapper_OOB - with the AProb OL
Data Summary
Win
Place
Show
Mutuel Totals
1427.90
1358.70
1235.80
Bet
-1260.00
-1260.00
-1260.00
Gain
167.90
98.70
-24.20
Wins
106
217
309
Plays
630
630
630
PCT
.1683
.3444
.4905
ROI
1.1333
1.0783
0.9808
AvgMut
13.47
6.26
4.00
By Odds Range-
Min
Max
Gain
Bet
Roi
Wins
Plays
Pct
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.0000
0
0
.0000
1.50
2.00
-1.60
30.00
0.9467
5
15
.3333
2.00
2.50
-23.90
82.00
0.7085
9
41
.2195
2.50
3.00
-15.30
120.00
0.8725
14
60
.2333
3.00
3.50
9.50
108.00
1.0880
14
54
.2593
3.50
4.00
-4.60
80.00
0.9425
8
40
.2000
4.00
4.50
-13.60
86.00
0.8419
7
43
.1628
4.50
5.00
19.20
60.00
1.3200
7
30
.2333
5.00
5.50
-39.20
76.00
0.4842
3
38
.0789
5.50
6.00
-2.40
70.00
0.9657
5
35
.1429
6.00
6.50
31.60
56.00
1.5643
6
28
.2143
6.50
7.00
-12.80
74.00
0.8270
4
37
.1081
7.00
7.50
5.60
44.00
1.1273
3
22
.1364
7.50
8.00
-28.00
28.00
0.0000
0
14
.0000
8.00
8.50
-9.20
28.00
0.6714
1
14
.0714
8.50
9.00
-6.20
26.00
0.7615
1
13
.0769
9.00
9999.00
258.80
292.00
1.8863
19
146
.1301
And, for anyone interested, here's a link to the complete list of plays selected by
the UDM using the AProb OL during calendar year 2004:
DR_JCapper_OOB.txt
Assigned Probability
Here is a calendar year 2004 recap for all 12 tracks (over 75,000 starters - every race in the Starter Database - all distances, surfaces, and classes) broken out by Assigned Probability Number. The accuracy of the program's Assigned Probability number
in this sample speaks for itself.
