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Looking at Kee cxn rankings?

kingfish
10/9/2009
3:03:48 PM

How does cxn rank horses on the first day of the kee meet. When their is no trainer or jockey stats to base the rankings on. The first two races the winners were in the top three cxn rankings. I know you can't reveal the formula for the cxn rankings. But when should we trust the cxn rankings for a new meet?

kingfish

jeff
10/9/2009
4:03:29 PM

Designed the algorithm so that it includes both meet to date stats and overall stats. Obviously during the first few days of a new meet, every rider and trainer is going to have a limited number of starts meet to date and wins meet to date. Without giving away the specifics of the algorithm, when riders and trainers have very few (or none) meet to date starts and wins, greater emphasis has to be placed on overall numbers.

When can you trust it?

Interesting way of phrasing things... Can you really ever trust anything?

Tell you what... I'm curious too.

I'll go through my data folders for calendar year 2009 and "grab" a handful of data and results files for opening day cards only... and past them into a new folder named c:\OpeningDay... and then run a database build from scratch on that folder.

I'll come back and post some results later as time allows.

-jp

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jeff
10/9/2009
5:26:18 PM

Nothing too scientific... Surfed through my quarterly folders and just grabbed the first 15 opening day cards that I saw for tracks that I'm following this year. Pasted the files into a new folder, and built a database on that folder from scratch.

Here's what it looks like broken out by CXN Rank:


     query start:         10/9/2009 2:10:08 PM
     query end:           10/9/2009 2:10:10 PM
     elapsed time:        2 seconds
     ~
     Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) 
     From Index File: C:\2009\OpeningDay\pL_profile.txt

     ~
     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals    2002.70   1987.00   1851.90
     Bet             -2414.00  -2414.00  -2414.00
     Gain             -411.30   -427.00   -562.10
     ~
     Wins                 141       281       415
     Plays               1207      1207      1207
     PCT                .1168     .2328     .3438
     ~
     ROI               0.8296    0.8231    0.7671
     Avg Mut            14.20      7.07      4.46
     ~
     ~
     By: CXN Rating Rank
     ~
     Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
        1       7.90    312.00    1.0253     35    156   .2244     1.9206  
        2      -5.50    322.00    0.9829     32    161   .1988     1.7014  
        3    -152.80    284.00    0.4620     16    142   .1127     0.9645  
        4     -94.10    330.00    0.7148     16    165   .0970     0.8301  
        5     -69.10    292.00    0.7634     10    146   .0685     0.5863  
        6    -122.20    262.00    0.5336      8    131   .0611     0.5228  
        7       7.80    186.00    1.0419     10     93   .1075     0.9205  
        8     -64.80    150.00    0.5680      5     75   .0667     0.5707  
        9     -91.20    114.00    0.2000      2     57   .0351     0.3004  
       10     114.00     94.00    2.2128      4     47   .0851     0.7285  
       11      48.90     50.00    1.9780      2     25   .0800     0.6848  
       12       9.80     18.00    1.5444      1      9   .1111     0.9511

By way of comparison, here's the same query covering the first half of calendar year 2009:


     Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) 
     From Index File: C:\2009\Q1_2009\pl_2009_0716_June30.txt

     ~
     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals  168396.40 167657.70 167899.10
     Bet           -224064.00-224064.00-224064.00
     Gain           -55667.60 -56406.30 -56164.90
     ~
     Wins               13772     27440     40336
     Plays             112032    112032    112032
     PCT                .1229     .2449     .3600
     ~
     ROI               0.7516    0.7483    0.7493
     Avg Mut            12.23      6.11      4.16
     ~
     ~
     By: CXN Rating Rank
     ~
     Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
        1   -5208.10  28000.00    0.8140   3210  14000   .2293     1.8652  
        2   -4929.10  27362.00    0.8199   2522  13681   .1843     1.4996  
        3   -5927.90  27466.00    0.7842   1959  13733   .1426     1.1604  
        4   -6162.40  27426.00    0.7753   1791  13713   .1306     1.0624  
        5   -7149.40  27156.00    0.7367   1415  13578   .1042     0.8477  
        6   -6174.10  25722.00    0.7600   1130  12861   .0879     0.7147  
        7   -6424.60  21294.00    0.6983    740  10647   .0695     0.5654  
        8   -4405.50  16128.00    0.7268    511   8064   .0634     0.5155  
        9   -4000.70  11398.00    0.6490    264   5699   .0463     0.3768  
       10   -3331.20   7306.00    0.5440    140   3653   .0383     0.3118  
       11   -1358.10   3434.00    0.6045     69   1717   .0402     0.3269  
       12    -643.40   1198.00    0.4629     16    599   .0267     0.2173  
       13      49.90    138.00    1.3616      3     69   .0435     0.3537  
       14       7.00     26.00    1.2692      2     13   .1538     1.2515  
       15      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
       16      -8.00      8.00    0.0000      0      4   .0000     0.0000  
       17       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
       18       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
       19+      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000

Draw your own conclusions.

-jp

.

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JCapper 101 -- Looking at Kee cxn rankings?

JCapper 101
-- Looking at Kee cxn rankings?