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JCapper 101
-- Track Payout

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Track Payout

rosenowsr
5/7/2012
8:23:26 PM

Is there anywhere I can get an average mutual payout for each track from the previous season. I have been Googling but coming up empty.

Hana lists the average mutual handle but not the average payout.

I suppose if I knew the average win% per track I could do the math that way.(or not) lol

Any help is appreciated.

jeff
5/7/2012
9:24:01 PM

Two ways to go about it...

I have very close to 100% coverage in my databases for all North American thoroughbred races since 1/1/2009.

I can execute queries for specific tracks/time periods in the Data Window...


query start:         5/7/2012 6:17:36 PM
query end:           5/7/2012 6:17:44 PM
elapsed time:        8 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='CDX' 
      AND [YEAR]=2011
`
`
Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
Mutuel Totals    8205.00   7917.20   7970.90
Bet            -10774.00 -10774.00 -10774.00
Gain            -2569.00  -2856.80  -2803.10
`
Wins                 636      1272      1861
Plays               5387      5387      5387
PCT                .1181     .2361     .3455
`
ROI               0.7616    0.7348    0.7398
Avg Mut            12.90      6.22      4.28

The above displays Avg $2.00 Mutuel for WPS...

--more to come...

-jp

.

jeff
5/7/2012
11:16:29 PM

Armed with a fully populated SterterHistory table, I can also run queries for specific time periods and/or tracks - and break the data out BY TRACK.

Here is a link to a text file where I've pasted Data Window results for calendar year 2011 with the query results broken out BY TRACK:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/reports/impact_study_2011_bytrack.txt

Of course, here you get to see the "canned" report which doesn't include avg win mutuel. Therefore, you have to calculate it separately for individual tracks you are interested in.

The basic formula is:

AvgMut = AmtCollected / HeadCountWinners

Note that all of the needed variables aren't on the report. Each of the missing formula variables can be calculated using info that is on the report.

I'll use CDX as the example track to illustrate...

The report does give you the number of plays which can be multiplied by 2 to arrive at the AmtBet:

AmtBet = 5387 X 2
AmtBet = 10774

The report does give you the ROI. ROI can be used with AmtBet to calculate AmtCollected:

AmtCollected = (ROI x AmtBet) / AmtBet
AmtCollected = (.7616 x 10774) / 10774
AmtCollected = 8205.48

At this point you have everything needed to make the AvgMut calculation and can simply plug stuff into the first formula:

AvgMut = AmtCollected / HeadCountWinners
AvgMut = 8205.48 / 636
AvgMut = 12.9017

For those of you who are adept at Access and Excel... When you run a query with the results broken out BY TRACK, the Data Window populates the SampleSummary Table in the c:\JCapper\Exe\JCapper2.mdb file with the BY TRACK data.

From there, pop the table open in Access and cut and paste the table data to Excel where a column can be added to the sheet and then used to make the Avg Mut calculation.

-jp

.

JCapper Message Board

JCapper 101 -- Track Payout

JCapper 101
-- Track Payout