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Strong-weak favorites

JimC
3/13/2012
6:54:08 PM

Hi guys. I am relatively new to jcapper, and am a bit puzzled by the filters legit and vul favorite. I thought that perhaps they meant that the projected race favorite was either strong or weak by some formula.

However, I put those filters into a couple of UDM's. I then starting seeing some races that showed both strong favorite and weak favorite in them. So obviously my guess was wrong.

I cant seem to find their definitions so can somebody help me to understand them.

Jim

jeff
3/15/2012
9:38:33 PM

The Vulnerable Favorite indicator in JCapper is a "canned" factor that has just two values: 0 to indicate a legit post time favorite and 1 to indicate a vulnerable post time favorite.

To illustrate, here is a data sample spanning the past (rolling) 14 months (give or take a day or two.) The sample results (about 59k races) are post time favorites only with the data broken out by the Vulnerable favorite indicator:


query start:         3/15/2012 6:27:05 PM
query end:           3/15/2012 6:29:04 PM
elapsed time:        119 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKODDS = 1
`
`
Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
Mutuel Totals   99901.50 104666.00 105474.50
Bet           -118520.00-118520.00-118520.00
Gain           -18618.50 -13854.00 -13045.50
`
Wins               21835     34194     41463
Plays              59260     59260     59260
PCT                .3685     .5770     .6997
`
ROI               0.8429    0.8831    0.8899
Avg Mut             4.58      3.06      2.54
`
`
By: Vulnerable Favorite
`
VFav       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
   0   -9502.00  73524.00    0.8708  14843  36762   .4038     1.0958  Legit Favorite
   1   -9116.50  44996.00    0.7974   6992  22498   .3108     0.8435  Vulnerable Favorite

-jp

jeff
3/15/2012
10:08:39 PM

--Quote:

"

...However, I put those filters into a couple of UDM's. I then starting seeing some races that showed both strong favorite and weak favorite in them. So obviously my guess was wrong...

"
--End Quote.

There are several odds and results based factors in JCapper and the Vulnerable Favorite indicator is one of them.

Odds and results based factors (such as Odds, Finish Position, Mutuel Payoffs, and the Vulnerable Favorite indicator) work well in the Data Window because final post time odds are known.

However, when the Calc Races button is clicked on race day the odds are not (yet) known by the Profile Marker. For that reason, any UDMs where odds or results based factors have been added to the UDM Definition will fail. (I'm guessing that's what you are alluding to in your post.)

The only place outside of the Data Window where odds and results based factors can be applied is the Live Play Module in JCapper Platinum. (The html report generated by the Live Play Module does invoke the algorithm for the Vulnerable favorite indicator which highlights the saddle cloth number of any vulnerable favorite with a red background.)

How should you use the Vulnerable Favorite indicator?

In my experience the decision whether or not to use the Vul Fav indicator is UDM dependent.

Some UDMs perform well when horses selected by them are not the post time favorite and are in races where the post time favorite is tagged as "vulnerable."

Other UDMs perform well (roi-wise) when horses selected by them are not the post time favorite and are in races where the post time favorite is tagged as "legit." Experience tells me this is tends to be the case when both of the following conditions exist: A. horses flagged by this type of UDM have strong (hidden) positive attributes. B. The "legit" post time favorite is even money or less - artificially inflating the odds for all of the other horses in the race. In cases where UDM horse manages a win the race pays out inflated mutuels.

The only way to tell whether or not to use the Vulnerable Favorite indicator is to run your UDMs through the Data Window... of course I'm talking about races where the UDM horse is not the post time favorite... with the data broken out by the Vulnerable Favorite indicator.

One other related thought... The vulnerable favorite flag is a "canned" factor included with the program. Quite a few of you have emailed in UDM Definitions that do a much better job of tagging favorites (or near favorites) as either vulnerable or legit. My point being that it's not terribly difficult to improve on the "canned" indicator if you devote some time to it.

Hope I explained most of that in a way that makes sense,

-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff on: 3/15/2012 at: 10:08:39 PM~

JimC
3/17/2012
9:44:30 AM

Now I understand. Thanks much Jeff.
Jim

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JCapper 101 -- Strong-weak favorites

JCapper 101
-- Strong-weak favorites