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| By | After 9 full weeks of stakes races in the PAIHL contest at paceadvantage.com | |||
| Charlie James 3/8/2011 12:35:00 AM | The two JCapper teams are still one-two in money earned. Standings/points thru 3-5: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1063646&postcount=40 Standings/money earned thru 3-5: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1063646&postcount=40
Each team bets $30 on 8 stakes races each week. $240 total wagered per week. Times 9 weeks = $2160. Subtract $30 for the race they lost when FGX cancelled this past Sat: break even point = $2130. 12 of the 50 teams are over break even. To me, that in itself is remarkable and screams how tough the competition in this thing is. The fact that both JCapper teams are well above break even after 9 full weeks speaks volumes about the JCapper program and its author. Congrats so far gentlemen and good luck the rest of the way! Chuck ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 3/7/2011 at: 4:56:48 PM~ ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 3/8/2011 at: 12:35:00 AM~
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| STUBALL 3/8/2011 9:57:16 AM | It has been a great ride being with JCapper and having Bill and Charlie as my immediate teammates. Proud of what both teams have accomplished in the tournament...this is a long tournament make no bones about it..it requires a lot of dedication and cooperation with your teammates. We are talking about 4 months long. People go thru a lot of stuff in 4 months..Jcapper is the glue that holds our team together...a long way to go. Other contestants have made statements about JCapper being better for High Class races but if anything I would say it is at least equally as good for whatever class of races that are put before you----if you do the work in the data window...the data window is key...never before have we had a tool such as this to do the research and then turn the research into program instructions and let JCapper do the hard work on race days... I am just now getting healthy again so after the new update I will be back to the data window...some would say I don't have the time..I said that when I first signed on with JCapper..but you want to win you have to make time...Jeff is a great mentor and there are others willing to help..but there is no magic bullet without dedication and hard work..I will now step off my soap box..thank you for reading this...........I would like to set up a seminar type meeting this summer somewhere central usa. Anybody interested? just to get the ball rolling so to speak. Stuball
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| notchback 3/8/2011 3:48:16 PM | It's been a lot of fun so far. Long way to go yet, but we are starting to build a nice cussion. If other teams keep hitting $500 exactas that could erode our lead very quickly, but hey, maybe we will hit a few as well. I'm not sure what to attribute it to, maybe the HDW data, but I am having a good year so far for me. Sitting on a positive ROI for the last couple of months. Maybe I am finally starting to figure this thing out. Who knows... Still lot's to learn :-)
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| Charli125 3/9/2011 1:20:22 PM | I too am pleased with what both teams have done so far, and I agree with the previous poster that it doesn't matter the class of races we're playing. If the contest included other classes of race, I believe we'd still be out front or at least close to the front like we are now. In my personal play(before I lost all of my UDM's!), I actually did much better in the middle claiming races. I stunk at Maidens, and wasn't too great at Graded Stakes, but made my money on claiming races and some allowance races. I think it's just a product of how you put together your UDM's, what factors you focus on, etc.
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| ryesteve 3/10/2011 11:00:59 AM | "Other contestants have made statements about JCapper being better for High Class races" Sounds like sour grapes to me. Like Charlie said, I generally stink at stakes races, which is why I wasn't eager to join in on this. Didn't think I'd be any help. I wish other folks could just say, "Good going, guys", instead of looking for reasons to minimize how well you guys are doing.
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| STUBALL 3/11/2011 7:42:06 AM | I don't think that is going to happen with some individuals...some say it's all luck to win a contest..we can only hope these same individuals are betting into the pools...LOL Stuball
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| Charlie James 3/12/2011 9:49:35 PM | Both Jcapper teams profitable again. Week 10 results: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1066864&postcount=73 Team 17: Team Jcapper (jcapper.com) 358.00 / 240.00 = 1.49 roi Team 46: Jcapper Afternoon Stroll (jcapper.com) 256.20 / 240.00 = 1.07 roi Nice work gentlemen!
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| Charlie James 4/10/2011 11:17:26 AM | PAIHL Standings Update After 14 weeks, both JCapper teams are still one two in total money returned. Text File Results to Apr 09 - Week 14 results and totals: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1080768&postcount=89
Team 17: Team Jcapper (jcapper.com) 4852.30 / 3330.00 = 1.46 roi Team 46: Jcapper Afternoon Stroll (jcapper.com) 3739.90 / 3330.00 = 1.12 roi Nice work gentlemen! ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 4/10/2011 at: 11:08:39 AM~ ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 4/10/2011 at: 11:13:02 AM~ ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 4/10/2011 at: 11:17:26 AM~
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| Charli125 4/11/2011 4:29:47 PM | Wow, are there really only 7 teams in positive territory? That's incredible. Now, stop trying to Jinx us Mr. James! Last time you wrote something positive Stuball ended up in the hospital and my laptop got stolen!
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| STUBALL 4/11/2011 6:49:35 PM | Fagitaboudit I am not going back to the hospital....that was upsetting..and hang on to your computer we need it..tough road ahead and we have to be at our best...what a ride so far... Stuball
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| Charlie James 4/12/2011 12:27:10 AM |
Please, call me Chuck. Not my intent to put the kibosh on you guys. I'm pulling for you guys in every way. To me the fact that there are still 7 roi positive teams after 14 weeks shows how deep the competition in this thing runs. I've been at this game for 40+ years. Deep down in my gut I believe there are maybe 3 or 4 players in 100 that can beat this game consistently. I think the fact that you guys are one-two in total money earned after 14 weeks is no accident. It's a testament to your own ability and work ethic as well as the tool set Jeff has given us to work with. I have a few random thoughts about this contest, the results so far, and the marketing schtick being posted all over the PA site by some of the "authorized advertisers." Head over to the private forum if you are so inclined. Stuball: Sorry to hear about your setback. Glad to hear that you are still at it -- and competitive too.
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| Charlie James 4/16/2011 9:51:26 PM | Team 17 JCapper.com contest picks at paceadvantage.com: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1083958&postcount=56 Congrats on nailing the 25-1 winner of the Arkansas Derby in event #6. Nice! Question for Jeff or someone else: Could you talk a little bit about your decision to toss the favorite? You guys have done that several times over the course of this contest (and ended up being right.) ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 4/16/2011 at: 9:51:26 PM~
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| parshooter 4/17/2011 8:55:33 AM | We toss out the favorite, usually on advice from Jeff. Contests like this one are won with price horses. Catching a favorite especially on top end of exacta play likely won't result in a large payout. We would prefer to risk a higher payout chance and give up less ground if the favorite does prevail. I hope that makes sense. This was Jeff's advice and we all agree.
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| jeff 4/17/2011 11:05:47 PM | When playing for cash on a daily basis, your job as a player is to find and bet overlays only. It doesn’t matter if you occasionally pass (or miss) overlays. If the bulk of money wagered is wagered on overlays: The player’s overall play will carry a positive expectancy. With daily cash play, the player (in theory) has a time horizon that approaches infinity. Given an extremely large number of plays at a positive expectancy, the player will (eventually) find himself (or herself) in the black. Contest play requires a different strategy. In contest play, being in the black is completely irrelevant. In a contest, the player’s time horizon has a predetermined limit. In contest play, the goal is to outscore the other contest players, period. Analysis of real world case histories from contest play shows that almost all contest winners won because they were able to cash on horses at odds of 6-1 and higher during the time period of the contest. It doesn’t matter if the long run expectancy of prime contest plays is negative – cash enough winners at 6-1 and up during a contest – and you’ll find your name on the leader board. I approached this contest somewhat differently than most. We knew going in that the PAIHL contest was going to be limited (primarily) to stakes races. In mid December 2010, I did a few hours of Data Window R&D - and then used JCapper’s UPR Tools interface to create a stakes specific UPR. In the initial "strategy" email exchange I told my teammates: "Unless there is reason to select otherwise, my recommendation would be that our primary selection mechanism be: Rank each contest race field by UPR and simply list the UPR1 horse first, the UPR2 horse second, etc." That strategy paid off. Over the time horizon of the contest (15 weeks) Team JCapper finished first among the 50 contest teams with an overall roi of 1.48. Chuck, your question takes us into the area of "Unless there is reason to select otherwise…" Many of the contest races involved horses just like The Factor who at first glance were likely to be odds on at post time. The strategy of putting 4/5 shots on top in contests is a proven loser. The reason it's a losing strategy is that each time one of these horses loses a race – somebody else in the contest almost always has the (longer paying) horse that won. Players with the longer paying race winner gain separation from those who played the 4/5 shot. When a horse at odds on does win a contest race, the amount of separation gained for those who played the 4/5 shot is minimal. A winning "contest" horse is generally worth anywhere from 6 to 15 chalk horses. The first order of business whenever I looked at a contest race involving a horse likely to be odds on was to draw a line through that horse and evaluate the others. In the Arkansas Derby that’s exactly what I did. Win or lose, I realized The Factor was going to be odds on. I immediately drew a line through him and looked at the others. Saratoga Red was the UPR2 horse. However, HDW had him as an E run style. I tossed him because the first thought running through my head when I saw what he looked like on my HTML Report was strictly need to lead breaking from the #12 hole. (Hint: Do a database query of E runners breaking from far outside posts in 2 turn route races 1870 yds or longer at OPX and you’ll likely reach the same conclusion that I did.) That left the UPR3 and UPR4 horses: #9 Archarcharch and #8 Dance City. Those became our two contest selections. They ran 1st and 3rd at long odds. I hope I managed to explain the thought process in a way that makes sense. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 4/17/2011 at: 11:05:47 PM~
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| Charlie James 4/18/2011 12:38:27 AM | Crystal clear Jeff. Thank you.
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| STUBALL 4/18/2011 9:24:54 AM | Thanks Jeff I love when you let us crawl into your head and see what you see...what a wonderous place this is -- each time you do this we learn a little more than we knew before...We are behind your team for a reason...we have to go back to the basics. Thanks again Don
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| jeff 4/30/2011 11:21:41 PM | Just wanted to say THANKS to those of you from the JCapper commumity who stepped up for this. Bill, Don, Charlie, Wayne, Doug... and anyone I missed who played for another team - You guys carried the load for 17 weeks - and hopefully learned a few things, cashed a few tickets, and had fun along the way. Proud of you, -jp .
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