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By Overall ROI AQU inner 2011
GUGA
2/13/2011
8:27:42 PM		Ran a Db query on AQU for all races 2011 showing a win ROI of .6458 using HDW data. Anybody else see a result this low? If so, is the takeout at AQU really that bad or am I missing something? Thanks Scott

~Edited by: GUGA  on:  2/13/2011  at:  8:19:36 PM~ and as a side note I broke it down by dist and at 6f a dismal .5986

~Edited by: GUGA  on:  2/13/2011  at:  8:27:42 PM~

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jeff
2/14/2011
4:26:06 PM		Sadly, as field sizes shrink - the numbers from more and more tracks behave that way (low flat bet roi for all starters.)

That said, it's not as if we don't have good factors to work with. Here is what I have for the AQU inner:


query start:         2/14/2011 1:17:19 PM
query end:           2/14/2011 1:17:23 PM
elapsed time:        4 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='AQU' 
      AND INTSURFACE=2
`
`
Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
Mutuel Totals    4042.80   4423.90   4355.40
Bet             -5820.00  -5820.00  -5820.00
Gain            -1777.20  -1396.10  -1464.60
`
Wins                 382       761      1126
Plays               2910      2910      2910
PCT                .1313     .2615     .3869
`
ROI               0.6946    0.7601    0.7484
Avg Mut            10.58      5.81      3.87
`
`
`
****************************************************************************************
Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Win ROI                  Run Date: 2/14/2011 1:17:23 PM
****************************************************************************************
                                       WIN  WIN          WIN               PLACE   PLACE
FACTOR            PLAYS    WINS        PCT  IMPACT       ROI  PLACES         PCT     ROI
****************************************************************************************
RACESTRENGTH F16    390     121     0.3103  2.3638    1.1192    204       0.5231  1.0712  
LATEPACE3 F25       393     92      0.2341  1.7833    1.0374    162       0.4122  0.9338  
UPRMLPROB           380     135     0.3553  2.7066    1.0014    203       0.5342  0.8822  
USERFACTOR5 F35     380     105     0.2763  2.1048    1.0003    179       0.4711  0.9324  
JRATING F29         380     111     0.2921  2.2252    0.9942    170       0.4474  0.8768  
JPRMLPROB           380     132     0.3474  2.6464    0.9762    199       0.5237  0.8772  
JPR                 380     126     0.3316  2.5261    0.9657    190       0.5     0.8772  
USERFACTOR5 F05     402     82      0.204   1.554     0.9517    128       0.3184  0.8331  
CPACE F20           380     104     0.2737  2.085     0.9375    166       0.4368  0.8571  
JPRCLASS F28        380     128     0.3368  2.5657    0.9349    199       0.5237  0.9058  
PRIME F31           414     150     0.3623  2.7599    0.929     226       0.5459  0.8652  
FIGCONSENSUS F13    395     126     0.319   2.4301    0.9043    197       0.4987  0.8801  
PAL F26             385     93      0.2416  1.8405    0.8992    164       0.426   0.8734  
FASTSLOWPACE F06    398     89      0.2236  1.7033    0.8982    157       0.3945  0.8789  
LATECONSENSUS F22   410     94      0.2293  1.7468    0.8971    168       0.4098  0.8402  
POWERCONSENSUS F32  394     126     0.3198  2.4362    0.8846    204       0.5178  0.8844  
FORM F03            400     65      0.1625  1.2379    0.8786    113       0.2825  0.7841  
COMPOUNDLATE F23    380     74      0.1947  1.4832    0.8747    141       0.3711  0.8793  
AFR F01             382     80      0.2094  1.5952    0.8713    135       0.3534  0.8101  
USERFACTOR4 F34     380     110     0.2895  2.2054    0.8703    191       0.5026  0.9642  
USERFACTOR3 F33     380     113     0.2974  2.2655    0.8684    195       0.5132  0.9518  
UPR                 380     109     0.2868  2.1848    0.868     184       0.4842  0.9092  
FASTSLOWFINAL F09   399     114     0.2857  2.1764    0.864     192       0.4812  0.8504  
EARLYCONSENSUS F19  399     98      0.2456  1.8709    0.8596    168       0.4211  0.8422  
POST TIME FAVS      390     154     0.3949  3.0083    0.8585    228       0.5846  0.8544  
MORNINGLINE         383     147     0.3838  2.9237    0.8563    217       0.5666  0.8415  
COMPOUNDSP F24      380     110     0.2895  2.2054    0.8536    189       0.4974  0.928   
PACEFIT F21         381     101     0.2651  2.0195    0.8299    173       0.4541  0.874   
FORMCONSENSUS F07   412     79      0.1917  1.4603    0.8235    141       0.3422  0.8564  
TPACE F11           388     108     0.2784  2.1208    0.8169    176       0.4536  0.8209  
PSCORE_HDW F14      380     99      0.2605  1.9844    0.8142    159       0.4184  0.8204  
CFA F08             380     97      0.2553  1.9448    0.8117    164       0.4316  0.8205  
COMPOUNDAP F18      380     109     0.2868  2.1848    0.8101    182       0.4789  0.8954  
BETTORSTOTEPROB     381     145     0.3806  2.8993    0.8098    218       0.5722  0.8298  
PACEFIG F10         381     102     0.2677  2.0393    0.8092    178       0.4672  0.8857  
BESTE2 F17          395     79      0.2     1.5236    0.8052    137       0.3468  0.7301  
PEDIGREE F15        384     77      0.2005  1.5274    0.7949    148       0.3854  0.8682  
WEIGHTEDFIG F12     381     85      0.2231  1.6995    0.794     151       0.3963  0.8448  
CLASSCONSENSUS F27  414     121     0.2923  2.2267    0.7796    201       0.4855  0.8736  
WOBRILL F04         384     64      0.1667  1.2699    0.7625    122       0.3177  0.8232  
OPTIMIZATION F30    425     94      0.2212  1.6851    0.7539    173       0.4071  0.878   
BASICFITNESS F02    450     70      0.1556  1.1853    0.6698    131       0.2911  0.7933  
****************************************************************************************
42 Factors from file: StarterHistory Table
****************************************************************************************



-jp

.

Reply
GUGA
2/14/2011
6:45:09 PM		I totally agree with the factor assessment! I was just QUITE surprised to see the flat bet all horse ROI at such low numbers. I guess my real question should have been phrased as ......Shouldn't the ROI of betting every horse be 1.00 - the track takeout?

Reply
ryesteve
2/15/2011
10:24:03 AM		No, because you're looking at the results of bets of the same size, and low odds horses win much more often. If you looked at the results of betting in proportion to odds, then in theory you would see something closer to (1 - takeout), except that breakage would knock off a few points, and you'd also see the effect of how efficient the pools are.

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GUGA
2/15/2011
6:35:18 PM		Thanks for the clarification Steve.

Reply
jeff
2/15/2011
7:42:12 PM
--quote:
"No, because you're looking at the results of bets of the same size, and low odds horses win much more often. If you looked at the results of betting in proportion to odds, then in theory you would see something closer to (1 - takeout), except that breakage would knock off a few points, and you'd also see the effect of how efficient the pools are.
"
--end quote


Just an aside... This is one of the things I've pointed out to track execs and horsemen during meetings whenever the takeout is discussed. They are always amazed (read that dismayed) when I show them an "ALL Button Query."

The point being driven home is that large sample data studies paint a ridiculously bleak picture of what new horse players who know absolutely nothing about handicapping face when they visit the track for those first few dozen times.

-jp

.

Reply
JustRalph
2/17/2011
1:44:44 AM		steve,

I like reading your stuff. You have your shit together

Thanks

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