|
JCapper Message Board General Discussion
|
| Home |
Register
Log In |
| By | 2010 Belmont | |
| jeff 6/5/2010 6:26:41 PM | Looking at the horses, my UDMs, the odds... With 10 mtp #8 Game On Dude is 16-1. Have to take a shot here. -jp .
| |
| Charlie James 6/5/2010 9:14:55 PM | Not the worst performing 17-1 shot I've ever seen. 4th beaten about 2L.
| |
| jeff 6/7/2010 3:31:40 PM | Belomnt Stakes Day 2010 Snap Shots: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=71379 Nice pics posted by Stevie Belmont over at PA. Noticed something I didn't pick up on while viewing the post parade/warmp ups live - mainly because Youbet's online streaming video quality has gotten so damn poor these days. I thought it was worth mentioning here - especially to anyone interested in learning more about what "condition" looks like in the flesh. Start at the top and scroll down through the pics until you come to the shot of the post time favorite Ice Box in the paddock. Compare the gleam (or lack of gleam) of his coat to the #7 horse (and 13-1 upset winner) Drosselmeyer. Ice Box's coat looks a lot like the lead pony's coat in that it's not reflecting sunlight at all. Contrast that to Drosselmeyer's coat - which is reflecting sunlight almost to the point to where it appears to shine. It almost looks "wet." But if you were to run your hand over it you'd discover that it's dry to the touch. Scroll down further through the pics to the shot of Drosselmeyer - and you can see a similar coat shine effect happening with #8 Game On Dude who finished 4th. One of the (subtle) things authors like Joe Takach, Bonnie Ledbetter, and others have pointed out in their work is the way the coat of a horse in "condition" reflects sunlight/shines/looks wet while being dry to the touch... Wheras the coat of a horse out of "condition" (more often than not) looks dull or appears to absorb sunlight rather than reflect it. The shot of Ice Box (my opinion) captures this effect perfectly... as did similar paddock shots of Big Brown just before his Belmont Stakes debacle. Now I'm not saying you should stop using a database and start backing every horse with a shiny coat - far from it. What I AM saying is this: If pre race a player was seriously considering loading up on Ice Box... or Big Brown... The appearance of either horse in the paddock gave ample clues (for the player paying attention) to keep the rubber band tightly wrapped around the bankroll. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/7/2010 at: 3:31:40 PM~
| |
| JustRalph 6/7/2010 3:46:09 PM | I spent a whole day on the balcony overlooking the paddock at Keeneland with Dr. Reid Mclellan one day last year. He turned it into an informal class on studying the horses for me. He is a great guy and not often you get to spend time with a certified PHD in race horses. He turned me on to a few things to look for. The coat was the start of everything. Since that day I have actually picked out a few decent winners that I wasn't keen on until I saw them in the post parade and both were via Television if you can believe it. One was a 21-1 shot at Aqu ...... It is actually fun to do.....but very hard to do via television. I deleted the Belmont off my DVR yesterday.....now I am wishing I would have kept it........just to look at Icebox http://www.purplepowerracing.com/mainframe.htm
| |
| jeff 6/7/2010 4:20:00 PM | I can vouch for Reid. He's very knowledgeable when it comes to racing's drug enforcement issues and has helped educate us HANA board members in this area as we push for the eventual adoption of transparency and a national set of drug standards. -jp .
| |
| jeff 6/7/2010 4:20:40 PM | nm ~Edited by: jeff on: 6/7/2010 at: 4:20:40 PM~
|
| Reply |
|
Copyright © 2018 JCapper Software back to the JCapper Message Board www.JCapper.com |