|
JCapper Message Board General Discussion
|
| Home |
Register
Log In |
| By | Race Volatility/Pace index | |
| JustRalph 5/29/2010 9:30:14 PM | I would like to hear when you think a race is actually "volatile" what number do you use ? 100=120 or higher ? I had one the other day that was a 240 something...... kind of blew me a away....... on pace index......what number do you find starts helping the closers ? I find it has to be > 90 and oddly enough lower than 70..... This seems to be the area where closers can get there, or they stay close enough to get there in the races without pace .... Any comments appreciated..........
| |
| ryesteve 5/30/2010 1:14:35 PM | One thing to keep in mind is that these numbers, particularly RV, look different between BRIS users and HDW users. A rough rule of thumb is that the BRIS RV numbers are about twice as high. When using BRIS, an RV of 140 seemed high... with HDW, something around 75 seems equivalent to that. With PI, honestly, I've never had success correlating it with the potential success of closers. Contrary to what one's intuition would suggest, a low PI can be good for closers because it could suggest the lack of any quality speed in the race. The best use I've made of PI is that high values seem to make the race more chaotic and unpredictable, thus candidates to avoid or at least attack in a completely different fashion, if that's your style.
| |
| jeff 5/30/2010 1:21:30 PM | --quote: "I would like to hear when you think a race is actually "volatile" what number do you use ?--end quote RV The concept behind RV is to provide a mechanical means of identifying playable races. ALL of my business UDMs have a playable race component... I use both RV and Field Size. In the case of RV - once you get the UDM to a certain point - run it through the Data Window with Race Volatility selected as the breakout factor from the factors drop down. If RV makes a difference given the factor makeup of your model you will see it at a glance when you look at the data. Best practice is always let the Data Window tell you where your cutoff(s) should be. RV cutoffs will vary slightly from UDM to UDM depending on the factor makeup of each. Back when I was using Brisnet data, a "loose model" UDM might use an RV cutoff of 95 or higher. A "tight model" UDM would produce a higher quality of selection - and min RV cutoffs would be in the 35-40 range. Currently using HDW data... where RV exists on a scale of 0 to 100. Realistic min RV cutoffs for my "loose model" UDMs seem to run in the 45-55 range... Realistic RV cutoffs for most of my "tight model" UDMs exist in the 25-30 range. PaceIndex PaceIndex is designed to provide a mechanical means of quantifying the amount of pace pressure inherent in a given race. With respect to Brisnet data I agree with your conclusions. The "sweet spot" for most of my UDMs (which tended to be based at least in part on early speed) was in the 75-90 range. The thing about "sweet spot" paced races (especially on speed favoring natural dirt courses) is that the leaders separate from the pack - making it so that not only does the closing horse have to negotiate traffic - but it must make up more ground in such races if it hopes to win the race. Paceless races (as indicated by low PaceIndex numbers) tend to be run in a manner where the closers aren't all that far away from the early leaders... When the real running starts they don't have as much additional ground to make up as they do in "sweet spot" paced races - which results in closers having a greater impact on the outcome such races. -jp .
| |
| jeff 5/30/2010 1:28:40 PM | --quote: "With PI, honestly, I've never had success correlating it with the potential success of closers. Contrary to what one's intuition would suggest, a low PI can be good for closers because it could suggest the lack of any quality speed in the race. The best use I've made of PI is that high values seem to make the race more chaotic and unpredictable, thus candidates to avoid or at least attack in a completely different fashion, if that's your style."--end quote I completely agree with this Steve. The data that I've seen continually bears this out. Yet most players (especially those without access to data) will tell you to look for fast paced races and bet the closers in the hopes that the pace will fall apart. If you study the data, you'll find that such races do exist - However, the win rate of come from the clouds closers in such races doesn't come anywhere close to matching the expectations of players dishing out the advice. -jp .
| |
| JustRalph 5/30/2010 2:38:45 PM | Good Stuff.......Thanks Guys!
| |
| bettheoverlay 5/30/2010 8:11:23 PM | Ralph, I prefer to use ESPraceshape instead of pace index whenever I can. The E-E-E group can be really interesting. I still use paceindex if there aren't enough races in the esp group, going 5 up and 5 down from the pace index number for that race. I break every race down by track-surface-distance and filter my pace user factors (and some others) into them. . ~Edited by: bettheoverlay on: 5/30/2010 at: 8:11:23 PM~
| |
| JustRalph 6/3/2010 8:39:25 PM | Bet, Thanks very much..... something new to tinker with.....again thanks
|
| Reply |
|
Copyright © 2018 JCapper Software back to the JCapper Message Board www.JCapper.com |