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| By | Hawthorne Race 5 4-17-10 | |
| JustRalph 4/17/2010 11:16:47 PM | Jos Finale jpr 1 12 optimization points jpr of 75 Highlighted as a huge overlay Maiden race on the turf I just couldn't bet the horse looking at the PP's ...... goes off at 24-1 and wins it...... woulda coulda shoulda ........ I hate these overlayed horses in Maiden races....just can't find a flag as to when to bet them..........
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| Tom C 4/18/2010 2:30:58 AM | Ralph, I'm pretty sure that I have posted this before, but I try not to look at the PPs because this has cost me many mutuels like the one you stated. Now I have to explain to my friends how I could bet horses like this and see them win and just shrug my shoulders and say the program said this horse was a play. They shake their heads is disbelief. I don't know if this happens to others who use JCapper but I have learned my lesson. Being a skeptic, it took a long time, but I am now convinced that I should not doubt the power of this program. Tom C
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| ryesteve 4/18/2010 7:47:44 AM | "I try not to look at the PPs" Same here, for the same reasons. Here's an easy justification for not looking: As Jeff has hammered into our heads, it's all about finding "hidden positives"... so if they're hidden, what exactly are we looking to see in the PPs?
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| bettheoverlay 4/18/2010 12:00:18 PM | Dave Schwartz made a rather forlorn comment on a PA thread recently that the one factor he can not come up with a satisfactory number for is current form/condition. I continue to look at PPs, especially when a high odds horse has good numbers, does the horse really fit into the unique conditions of the race at hand? Does she really look like she can run today against this group of horses? If the horse has many positives, like the Hawthorne horse, why is the public dismissing her at such high odds? Her record is pretty dismal. Relying on power ratings for longshots - JPR Rank1 at 12/1 or better is 3 for the last 86 in my db (opt pts 2,3,and 11 on winners), my UPR R1 is 2/76. The intangibles on the Hawthorne race - only horse in the field with an in the money finish on the turf (her only ITM finish in 11 starts), on a similiar firm surface, against similiar, highest Bris ped # for turf, and as a 4 year making first start of the year, eligible to improve off the only good race in her 3yo record. Like Ralph, I would have passed her too. And maybe passed the next 25 horses at 20/1 with similiar record and watch them lose. Of course, if you have a compelling UDM on her that you are confident in at high odds, thats another story. Hopefully this thread can go in the private section. ~Edited by: bettheoverlay on: 4/18/2010 at: 11:58:25 AM~ ~Edited by: bettheoverlay on: 4/18/2010 at: 12:00:18 PM~
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| JustRalph 4/18/2010 5:04:55 PM | Thanks guys....... good stuff Jeff....when you get back from Keeneland would love to hear from you ~Edited by: JustRalph on: 4/18/2010 at: 5:04:55 PM~
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| jeff 4/19/2010 4:08:18 PM | Actually Ralph I didn't go to Keeneland. I was here in CA the whole time. Read the thread about the 4/15/2010 CHRB meeting in the off topic area... I think you'll understand why. -jp .
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| JustRalph 4/19/2010 5:19:44 PM | sorry, thought you were in KY So what do you think of the horse in this thread ?
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| jeff 4/20/2010 11:42:40 PM | I actually bet the runner up using one of my own UDMs. Thought I was home and cooled out at the 1/16th pole. Sigh. -jp .
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| bettheoverlay 5/25/2010 11:57:00 AM | Another catchable bomb last night at Indiana Downs 6th race #1 $114.60! I had a early speed longshot UDM tagging it, my only UDM in the race, and the only one I have some confidence in at those kind of odds. Also,#1 and hi-lited in Form Consensus, #1 in Early Consensus, #1 in JRating. Peeking at the PPs, as I am wont to do, I noticed 2 big wins at the distance, and although I don't normally do IND, I would assume early speed from the #1 post at distance races does well there. I missed the exacta, had the favorite boxed, he finished 3rd, 2 of 3 in two P3, luckily I had a few sheckles on the win. .
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| Stranded 5/29/2010 9:31:28 AM | two things.first a horse can not read the tote board.second there is a reason the horse has a jpr 3 #1 ranking.
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