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| By | Kentucky Derby 2008 | |||
| theox 4/25/2008 5:11:19 PM | It's time to start building the derby winner's profile. Albeit 5 years of data do not make a solid trend, I have noticed that the derby winner came from within the top 3 AFR in the last 5 runnings ( 2003 to 2007). This limited analysis includes Funny Cide beating Empire Maker(2003), and Giacomo in 2005. Theox.
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| ryesteve 4/28/2008 9:39:11 AM | I recall that Jeff's BC analysis also pointed to AFR as a factor to keep an eye on, so even though I'm the last person who'd ever rely on a 5 race trend, this could very well be a legit observation.
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| bettheoverlay 4/28/2008 2:56:03 PM | With Proud Spell and Behindatthebar out, I get Adriano, Court Vision and Big Brown as the top 3 AFRs. I have Tale of Ekati with some good numbers, 2nd in my UPR behind Big Brown and tagged by 2 Graded Stakes UDMs.
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| jeff 5/3/2008 12:28:00 PM | I've uploaded my own HTML Report for the 08 KY Derby Day card to the server. The report includes early scratches. Here's a link: http://www.JCapper.com/2008/cdx05032008.html While I don't have a strong opinion about the Derby itself, I do have a couple of UDM selections on the undercard. Enjoy, -jp .
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| pdavid6 5/3/2008 3:02:40 PM | Does anyone think Tale of Ekati(highlighted), Court Vision, or Recapturetheglory have a chance?
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| pdavid6 5/3/2008 3:11:10 PM | Jeff, how did you get the order of JPR to show at the bottom of each race on the html report?
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| jager fury 5/3/2008 3:11:19 PM | I'm going with a tri, 12,13/20/2,4 or 12,13/2,4/20. Toying with a show bet on 2 and 17. I like Cpace around 160 as well as compound sp rank 1 at CDX.
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| jager fury 5/3/2008 4:33:38 PM | My pick three is alive! r7 7,8 r8 1,4,5 r9 5 ...and now it is not. Still like the 5 to win in the 9th! ~Edited by: jager fury on: 5/3/2008 at: 4:33:38 PM~
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| jeff 5/3/2008 10:44:07 PM |
That's something new I'm experimenting with... The idea is to save time when "handicapping" off the HTML Report for contenders to include in exotics with UDM selections. I'm thinking of calling it the "Magic Numbers" algorithm for lack of a better name. The first group of numbers are keyed in order using UPR and JPR Class followed by a "~"... The second group of numbers are based on other factors not displayed on the HTML Report such as QRating, Alchemy, and PRating along with CompoundLate in routes followed by a "~"... The final group (if any) is composed of horses I consider dangerous horses (including dangerous first time starters) that may have been missed by the first two screens. Once I get the preference order nailed down to my satisfaction I'll make it available in a future program version and create a checkbox on the System Definitions Screen to enable it. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 5/3/2008 at: 10:44:07 PM~
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