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| By | AQUEDUCT INNER | |
| SOUTHERN SLEW 12/23/2009 3:40:14 PM | I am a new Jcapper member from Queens, New York, I have been using the program for about 3 months and I can honestly say it’s the absolute best handicapping software I have ever used, its far superior to most of the other name brand programs that most of you are aware of. Credit must be given to the creator of this software, the mathematical handicapping genius Prof. Jeff Platt, probably the best handicapper on the planet in modern times, a true gentleman and an outstanding individual. I am somewhat of a specialist in that I only play the NYRA tracks. I have made a recent observation of the AQU inner track weight profile and would love to hear any comments from other players. Last AQU inner meet which ran from 12/2/08 to 3/29/09 the track profile was Speed Tiring 5.0 (strong), the current meet so far which started 12/2/09 up until 12/13 when they closed for a 2 week break is Speed Friendly 1.0 (strong) but the first week of racing was Speed Tiring. Now your UDM can only be as good as the data that were used to build them. Since it appears that there is a distinct anomaly with last season data compared to the current data, the question I am presenting to this forum is "how effective will your UDM created with speed tiring data be, going forward with a surface that is now speed friendly" So far in my own personal play, I can report that my Business UDM has not been as effective as the one that I used for the Main Track, so my theory that your results can only be as good as the data used to create your UDM has proven to be correct. It turns out that there was in fact a major issue with the inner track surface last winter, as a recent article appeared in the DRF on 12/12/09 on page 12 of the center pullout. The article address the issue that the track surface had last season and the fact that they had to move away from the 3 wheel tractors to the now 4 wheel tractors that has smaller wheels. The surface was too hard because the track was sealed on a nightly basis, horses were getting injured and the trainers were complaining, so the change in equipment changed the surface from speed friendly to speed tiring. In summary it would seem that the best solution would be to either discard the data from the previous inner track meet and use data from the previous 2007-2008 meet when the surface was traditionally speed friendly, or as I have done in my own UDM R&D is to tweak my UDM using speed favoring factors. Steve Sparks
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