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| By | Takeout Rant | |
| Ishmael 12/22/2009 11:38:38 AM | There are basically three things I keep hearing and reading from certain players. I cant believe this stuff is still going on. 1. Players are not aware of takeout so dont care 2. Players are aware of it, but still dont care 3. Players are aware of it, but since some get rebates not really an issue As far as number one that is simply not true. The HANA survey has proven it, as have numerous posts on these forums. Sure there is an element that "doesn't know" but as far as who is putting the majority of dollars thru the windows, we know. So a faulty premise As far as number two, people misunderstand betting into a high takeout with "not caring" And even if one buys into idea they dont care they are directly impacted in that they would be in the game longer. Or they feel they can beat the game anyway. Its not that they "dont care" Number 3 is the offshoot of the "rebates arent fair" argument- another one that drives me crazy. Some think that because there are alternatives- ie rebates- that issue really isnt significant. That nothing needs fixing. Even with a 5-6% rebate the player is at a big disadvantage with takeout. I think if you asked any high volume player if they would like to bet into a 10% takeout with no rebate they would sign up tomorrow. Why is it so hard for people to understand that reduced takeout will improve handle, and drive growth?
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| jeff 12/22/2009 12:45:23 PM | --quote: Why is it so hard for people to understand that reduced takeout will improve handle, and drive growth? --end quote-- I've been asking myself the same thing for quite some time now. The truth is: It isn't hard to understand. In fact, there's a growing body of evidence to support it. Over the past year, through HANA - we've been working to make industry decision makers aware of it. I can guarantee you one thing at this point: Industry decision makers are VERY much aware of it. FAR more aware than they publicly let on. Change isn't going to happen overnight. Nobody wants to be first. But change IS coming. In 2010 you are going to see a handful of tracks reduce their takeout. Some of this is going to come in the form of new wagers at takeout that is historically lower than takeout in that track's other pools. Right now HANA is working with one major track that is seriously considering doing a takeout reduction with a high profile pool. Other tracks that I know of are currently working on an all pools takeout reduction spanning their full 2010 meets. None of these takeout reductions are going to be drastic... None of them are likely going to make headlines. I'm talking about reduced takeout of a few points at a few tracks for an extended time period -- and monitoring results. When it happens, if players support it -- other tracks will have no choice but to follow. It's a start. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 12/22/2009 at: 12:45:23 PM~
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| Ishmael 12/22/2009 1:03:36 PM | great to hear. Just hope the politicians dont screw it up. Because thats another thing that happens. Back when Barry Schwartz ran NYRA and later Bill Nader they both wanted a significant reduction in takeout. But they couldnt get the politicians to go along. In fact that politicians wanted to go the other way. But step one is getting the tracks themselves on board. If they dont buy in it wont happen. If they do there is hope
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| JimG 12/22/2009 4:19:08 PM | An argument could be made that playing tracks with higher takeouts could be advantageous if many long term winners avoid said tracks due to the high takeout. The value plays could become better value (by virtue of the sharp handicappers not playing and landing on the same horse) and more than overcome the increase in the takeout. I do love the contrarian way of thinking. Jim ~Edited by: JimG on: 12/22/2009 at: 4:19:08 PM~
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| Ishmael 12/22/2009 6:42:08 PM | Jim G, I love contrarian thinking and have wondered about that myself. But the problem can be pool size. And even a few points in takeout make the game so much harder. ~Edited by: Ishmael on: 12/22/2009 at: 6:42:08 PM~
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| jeff 12/22/2009 7:53:06 PM | Something worth considering is the effect of rebates. Someone I correspond with who works for one of the large computer teams recently told me he believes that the top 6-7 teams now account for as much as 20% of total handle at some tracks. Their rebates (as are all rebates) are scaled in proportion to track takeout... The higher the takeout, the higher the rebate. The world's largest players realistically play into effective avg takeouts between 8%-12%... depending on the track signal and wager type. For example, at PEN where the takeout for TRI and SUPER is north of 30%, the rebate for a bona fide whale team churning $300 million a year can be expected to top more than 20%. High takeout may not be a deterrent for price sensitive whale money because of rebates... But high takeout absolutely and without question IS driving the everyday player away from the game. -jp .
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| Acorn54 12/22/2009 11:10:28 PM | i agree that high takeout drives people away. i mean for how long can someone afford to lose significant amounts of money before realizing it doesn't pay to pass the time betting horses. i am talking about the sensible horseplayer not the gambling degenerate of someone that avoids parimutuel reality. take into account the yearly cost of datafiles and we are talking quite a bit of money on a yearly basis to play the horses. one can easily rationalize going into another more rewarding hobby such as putting that money into say stamp or coin collecting. at least then you have a fighting chance of getting around 10 percent yearly roi.
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