| By |
Breeder's Cup |
parshooter
10/12/2009
12:36:00 PM | Just wondering if anyone has Breeder's cup race specific UDM strategies. Along the lines of the UDM's posted specifically for the Kentucky Derby. I realize that BC moves around tracks. Or would you advise that Santa Anita races would be the best database? Breeder's Cup weekend is so challenging and has such good wagering possiblities any group assistance may benefit all.
Wayne
|
Charlie James
10/12/2009
6:06:46 PM | I think Jeff has a couple of posts over the years where he advocates a strategy of looking deeper for contenders in the BC than you normally would capping a typical Sat race card. I have BC card files for about the past 5 yrs and can second that.
If you simply bet every horse at 10-1 or more in that time I think you'd be a net winner.
If you did something really simple on BC day like limiting contenders to the top half of the field in AFR and apply a divisor of 1.5 or 1.2 your roi goes through the roof.
If I remember right last year Jeff caught Desert Code at 35-1.
Two years ago when the BC was run in the mud at MTH Jeff sat in on a paceadvantage.com panel with Rich Rosa from Handicapping OS, Joe Riddel from PTC, and figure maker John Del Riccio.
I remember listening in. My favorite part was when Jeff gave out Now Now Now and everybody else on the call told Jeff he was nuts. Jeff got the last laugh: I think that horse won the next day at 11-1.
Jeff, I know you're really busy. Speaking strictly for myself I'd love it if you put something together for BC again.
Chuck
~Edited by: Charlie James on: 10/12/2009 at: 6:05:14 PM~
~Edited by: Charlie James on: 10/12/2009 at: 6:06:46 PM~
|
Ishmael
10/16/2009
11:35:33 AM | Just remember they are running on the fake stuff (dont get me started) so going to be real hard comparing to past BC's
|
jeff
11/4/2009
1:04:38 PM | I've compiled a database spanning the past 9 Breeder's Cup cards.... 2000-2008. The database includes both Fri cards from 2007 & 2008.
First, some numbers...
query start: 11/4/2009 9:50:44 AM
query end: 11/4/2009 9:50:46 AM
elapsed time: 2 seconds
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Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
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Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 2353.20 2261.70 2152.40
Bet -2586.00 -2586.00 -2586.00
Gain -232.80 -324.30 -433.60
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Wins 118 234 351
Plays 1293 1293 1293
PCT .0913 .1810 .2715
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ROI 0.9100 0.8746 0.8323
Avg Mut 19.94 9.67 6.13
~
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****************************************************************************************
Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Factor Name Run Date: 11/4/2009 9:50:46 AM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
FACTOR PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
AFR 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 1.6432 30 0.2564 1.2171
ALCHEMY 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.5291 26 0.2222 0.5466
AVGBRISFIG 121 25 0.2066 2.2638 0.7302 38 0.314 0.7851
AVGE1 127 9 0.0709 0.7769 0.622 21 0.1654 0.6043
BESTE2 124 8 0.0645 0.7068 0.1988 25 0.2016 0.8524
BETTORSTOTEPROB 117 38 0.3248 3.559 0.9953 51 0.4359 0.8654
BRIS10 149 24 0.1611 1.7653 0.6419 34 0.2282 0.5674
BRIS3 140 21 0.15 1.6436 0.5043 35 0.25 0.5889
CFA 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.4744 30 0.2564 0.6175
CLASSCOMPOS 124 16 0.129 1.4135 0.6056 31 0.25 0.9504
CLASSCONSENSUS 125 26 0.208 2.2792 0.8224 37 0.296 0.7376
CLOSINGRATIO 125 9 0.072 0.7889 0.3656 18 0.144 0.6468
CMI 117 11 0.094 1.03 0.5731 24 0.2051 0.791
COMPOUNDAP 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.8504 36 0.3077 0.9128
COMPOUNDE1 117 12 0.1026 1.1243 0.6359 27 0.2308 0.9774
COMPOUNDE2 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.7611 32 0.2735 1.1073
COMPOUNDLATE 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.6594 23 0.1966 0.6214
COMPOUNDPERCENTE 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 1.1316 25 0.2137 1.1098
COMPOUNDSP 117 23 0.1966 2.1543 0.8829 36 0.3077 0.8868
COMPOUNDTT 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 1.0021 35 0.2991 1.0406
CONSISTENCY 117 26 0.2222 2.4348 0.9282 37 0.3162 0.7859
CPACE 118 8 0.0678 0.7429 0.5492 19 0.161 0.5657
CXN 117 10 0.0855 0.9369 0.6073 32 0.2735 1.2718
EARLYCONSENSUS 125 14 0.112 1.2273 0.844 30 0.24 1.0512
FASTSLOWFINAL 169 25 0.1479 1.6206 0.6201 42 0.2485 0.7595
FASTSLOWPACE 156 17 0.109 1.1944 1.1157 40 0.2564 1.4381
FIGCONSENSUS 124 22 0.1774 1.9439 0.6202 36 0.2903 0.7004
FORM 129 11 0.0853 0.9347 0.507 23 0.1783 0.6271
FORMCONSENSUS 128 17 0.1328 1.4552 1.6648 29 0.2266 1.2188
JPR 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.5427 33 0.2821 0.6397
JPRCLASS 117 20 0.1709 1.8727 0.6444 31 0.265 0.6705
JPRMLPROB 117 20 0.1709 1.8727 0.5868 33 0.2821 0.6342
JPRTOTEPROB 117 37 0.3162 3.4648 0.9423 52 0.4444 0.8752
JRATING 118 16 0.1356 1.4859 0.561 32 0.2712 0.7767
LASTRACEBRISFIG 140 23 0.1643 1.8003 0.645 40 0.2857 0.8389
LATECONSENSUS 124 15 0.121 1.3259 0.5254 26 0.2097 0.6839
LATEPACE3 257 27 0.1051 1.1516 0.6714 52 0.2023 0.9533
LATEPACEINLAST 126 14 0.1111 1.2174 0.4853 26 0.2063 0.6556
LATESLANT 118 17 0.1441 1.579 0.5699 24 0.2034 0.4678
LOGICALFIG 120 14 0.1167 1.2788 0.75 30 0.25 0.9388
MORNINGLINE 118 35 0.2966 3.25 0.8555 51 0.4322 0.8657
OPTIMIZATION 133 13 0.0977 1.0706 0.5647 26 0.1955 0.7891
PACEFIG 119 17 0.1429 1.5658 1.0021 36 0.3025 1.229
PACEFIG_2F_INLAST 133 8 0.0602 0.6596 0.7395 27 0.203 1.059
PACEFIG_4F_INLAST 124 13 0.1048 1.1484 0.827 33 0.2661 1.2786
PACEFIT 117 12 0.1026 1.1243 0.6359 26 0.2222 0.9551
PACELINE 148 23 0.1554 1.7028 0.552 43 0.2905 0.7139
PAL 128 18 0.1406 1.5406 0.652 29 0.2266 0.7242
PCLASS 118 26 0.2203 2.414 0.9568 40 0.339 0.8627
PCTE 125 7 0.056 0.6136 0.6872 17 0.136 0.5532
PEDIGREE 253 24 0.0949 1.0399 0.949 49 0.1937 1.0136
PMI 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.988 25 0.2137 0.6363
POST TIME FAVS 123 38 0.3089 3.3848 0.9069 56 0.4553 0.9004
POWERCONSENSUS 126 20 0.1587 1.739 0.7087 31 0.246 0.621
PRATING 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.7543 34 0.2906 0.8009
PRIME 233 28 0.1202 1.3171 0.97 59 0.2532 0.9903
QRATING 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.744 36 0.3077 1.0094
QSPEEDPOINTS 300 30 0.1 1.0958 1.0017 58 0.1933 1.0113
RACESTRENGTH 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 0.4261 22 0.188 0.6043
STAMINA 118 14 0.1186 1.2996 1.1623 25 0.2119 0.9559
SUSTAINED 133 21 0.1579 1.7302 0.7707 28 0.2105 0.5515
TPACE 123 17 0.1382 1.5143 0.8654 32 0.2602 1.0451
TURNTIME 124 10 0.0806 0.8832 0.6258 24 0.1935 0.769
UPR 117 22 0.188 2.06 0.8466 32 0.2735 0.7479
UPRMLPROB 117 23 0.1966 2.1543 0.738 33 0.2821 0.6573
UPRTOTEPROB 117 33 0.2821 3.0911 0.8714 44 0.3761 0.7368
USERFACTOR1 117 6 0.0513 0.5621 0.1769 18 0.1538 0.4338
USERFACTOR2 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.6487 30 0.2564 0.7295
USERFACTOR3 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.8791 30 0.2564 1.0761
USERFACTOR4 117 19 0.1624 1.7795 0.8453 29 0.2479 0.7184
USERFACTOR5 166 22 0.1325 1.4519 0.6729 40 0.241 0.8066
WEIGHTEDFIG 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 0.6115 26 0.2222 0.6265
WILLTOWIN 146 18 0.1233 1.3511 0.7301 34 0.2329 0.8692
WOBRILL 123 14 0.1138 1.247 0.987 23 0.187 0.9146
****************************************************************************************
74 Factors from file: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
****************************************************************************************
~
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~
~
****************************************************************************************
Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Impact Value Run Date: 11/4/2009 9:50:46 AM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
FACTOR PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
BETTORSTOTEPROB 117 38 0.3248 3.559 0.9953 51 0.4359 0.8654
JPRTOTEPROB 117 37 0.3162 3.4648 0.9423 52 0.4444 0.8752
POST TIME FAVS 123 38 0.3089 3.3848 0.9069 56 0.4553 0.9004
MORNINGLINE 118 35 0.2966 3.25 0.8555 51 0.4322 0.8657
UPRTOTEPROB 117 33 0.2821 3.0911 0.8714 44 0.3761 0.7368
CONSISTENCY 117 26 0.2222 2.4348 0.9282 37 0.3162 0.7859
PCLASS 118 26 0.2203 2.414 0.9568 40 0.339 0.8627
CLASSCONSENSUS 125 26 0.208 2.2792 0.8224 37 0.296 0.7376
AVGBRISFIG 121 25 0.2066 2.2638 0.7302 38 0.314 0.7851
COMPOUNDSP 117 23 0.1966 2.1543 0.8829 36 0.3077 0.8868
UPRMLPROB 117 23 0.1966 2.1543 0.738 33 0.2821 0.6573
UPR 117 22 0.188 2.06 0.8466 32 0.2735 0.7479
COMPOUNDAP 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.8504 36 0.3077 0.9128
QRATING 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.744 36 0.3077 1.0094
PRATING 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.7543 34 0.2906 0.8009
FIGCONSENSUS 124 22 0.1774 1.9439 0.6202 36 0.2903 0.7004
JPRCLASS 117 20 0.1709 1.8727 0.6444 31 0.265 0.6705
JPRMLPROB 117 20 0.1709 1.8727 0.5868 33 0.2821 0.6342
LASTRACEBRISFIG 140 23 0.1643 1.8003 0.645 40 0.2857 0.8389
USERFACTOR4 117 19 0.1624 1.7795 0.8453 29 0.2479 0.7184
BRIS10 149 24 0.1611 1.7653 0.6419 34 0.2282 0.5674
POWERCONSENSUS 126 20 0.1587 1.739 0.7087 31 0.246 0.621
SUSTAINED 133 21 0.1579 1.7302 0.7707 28 0.2105 0.5515
PACELINE 148 23 0.1554 1.7028 0.552 43 0.2905 0.7139
AFR 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 1.6432 30 0.2564 1.2171
JPR 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.5427 33 0.2821 0.6397
COMPOUNDLATE 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.6594 23 0.1966 0.6214
COMPOUNDTT 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 1.0021 35 0.2991 1.0406
USERFACTOR2 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.6487 30 0.2564 0.7295
BRIS3 140 21 0.15 1.6436 0.5043 35 0.25 0.5889
FASTSLOWFINAL 169 25 0.1479 1.6206 0.6201 42 0.2485 0.7595
LATESLANT 118 17 0.1441 1.579 0.5699 24 0.2034 0.4678
PACEFIG 119 17 0.1429 1.5658 1.0021 36 0.3025 1.229
PAL 128 18 0.1406 1.5406 0.652 29 0.2266 0.7242
TPACE 123 17 0.1382 1.5143 0.8654 32 0.2602 1.0451
JRATING 118 16 0.1356 1.4859 0.561 32 0.2712 0.7767
FORMCONSENSUS 128 17 0.1328 1.4552 1.6648 29 0.2266 1.2188
USERFACTOR5 166 22 0.1325 1.4519 0.6729 40 0.241 0.8066
CLASSCOMPOS 124 16 0.129 1.4135 0.6056 31 0.25 0.9504
USERFACTOR3 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.8791 30 0.2564 1.0761
ALCHEMY 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.5291 26 0.2222 0.5466
PMI 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.988 25 0.2137 0.6363
COMPOUNDE2 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.7611 32 0.2735 1.1073
CFA 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.4744 30 0.2564 0.6175
WILLTOWIN 146 18 0.1233 1.3511 0.7301 34 0.2329 0.8692
LATECONSENSUS 124 15 0.121 1.3259 0.5254 26 0.2097 0.6839
PRIME 233 28 0.1202 1.3171 0.97 59 0.2532 0.9903
STAMINA 118 14 0.1186 1.2996 1.1623 25 0.2119 0.9559
LOGICALFIG 120 14 0.1167 1.2788 0.75 30 0.25 0.9388
WOBRILL 123 14 0.1138 1.247 0.987 23 0.187 0.9146
EARLYCONSENSUS 125 14 0.112 1.2273 0.844 30 0.24 1.0512
WEIGHTEDFIG 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 0.6115 26 0.2222 0.6265
COMPOUNDPERCENTE 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 1.1316 25 0.2137 1.1098
LATEPACEINLAST 126 14 0.1111 1.2174 0.4853 26 0.2063 0.6556
RACESTRENGTH 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 0.4261 22 0.188 0.6043
FASTSLOWPACE 156 17 0.109 1.1944 1.1157 40 0.2564 1.4381
LATEPACE3 257 27 0.1051 1.1516 0.6714 52 0.2023 0.9533
PACEFIG_4F_INLAST 124 13 0.1048 1.1484 0.827 33 0.2661 1.2786
COMPOUNDE1 117 12 0.1026 1.1243 0.6359 27 0.2308 0.9774
PACEFIT 117 12 0.1026 1.1243 0.6359 26 0.2222 0.9551
QSPEEDPOINTS 300 30 0.1 1.0958 1.0017 58 0.1933 1.0113
OPTIMIZATION 133 13 0.0977 1.0706 0.5647 26 0.1955 0.7891
PEDIGREE 253 24 0.0949 1.0399 0.949 49 0.1937 1.0136
CMI 117 11 0.094 1.03 0.5731 24 0.2051 0.791
CXN 117 10 0.0855 0.9369 0.6073 32 0.2735 1.2718
FORM 129 11 0.0853 0.9347 0.507 23 0.1783 0.6271
TURNTIME 124 10 0.0806 0.8832 0.6258 24 0.1935 0.769
CLOSINGRATIO 125 9 0.072 0.7889 0.3656 18 0.144 0.6468
AVGE1 127 9 0.0709 0.7769 0.622 21 0.1654 0.6043
CPACE 118 8 0.0678 0.7429 0.5492 19 0.161 0.5657
BESTE2 124 8 0.0645 0.7068 0.1988 25 0.2016 0.8524
PACEFIG_2F_INLAST 133 8 0.0602 0.6596 0.7395 27 0.203 1.059
PCTE 125 7 0.056 0.6136 0.6872 17 0.136 0.5532
USERFACTOR1 117 6 0.0513 0.5621 0.1769 18 0.1538 0.4338
****************************************************************************************
74 Factors from file: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
****************************************************************************************
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****************************************************************************************
Key Factors Rank = 1 sorted by Win ROI Run Date: 11/4/2009 9:50:46 AM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
FACTOR PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
FORMCONSENSUS 128 17 0.1328 1.4552 1.6648 29 0.2266 1.2188
AFR 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 1.6432 30 0.2564 1.2171
STAMINA 118 14 0.1186 1.2996 1.1623 25 0.2119 0.9559
COMPOUNDPERCENTE 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 1.1316 25 0.2137 1.1098
FASTSLOWPACE 156 17 0.109 1.1944 1.1157 40 0.2564 1.4381
PACEFIG 119 17 0.1429 1.5658 1.0021 36 0.3025 1.229
COMPOUNDTT 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 1.0021 35 0.2991 1.0406
QSPEEDPOINTS 300 30 0.1 1.0958 1.0017 58 0.1933 1.0113
BETTORSTOTEPROB 117 38 0.3248 3.559 0.9953 51 0.4359 0.8654
PMI 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.988 25 0.2137 0.6363
WOBRILL 123 14 0.1138 1.247 0.987 23 0.187 0.9146
PRIME 233 28 0.1202 1.3171 0.97 59 0.2532 0.9903
PCLASS 118 26 0.2203 2.414 0.9568 40 0.339 0.8627
PEDIGREE 253 24 0.0949 1.0399 0.949 49 0.1937 1.0136
JPRTOTEPROB 117 37 0.3162 3.4648 0.9423 52 0.4444 0.8752
CONSISTENCY 117 26 0.2222 2.4348 0.9282 37 0.3162 0.7859
POST TIME FAVS 123 38 0.3089 3.3848 0.9069 56 0.4553 0.9004
COMPOUNDSP 117 23 0.1966 2.1543 0.8829 36 0.3077 0.8868
USERFACTOR3 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.8791 30 0.2564 1.0761
UPRTOTEPROB 117 33 0.2821 3.0911 0.8714 44 0.3761 0.7368
TPACE 123 17 0.1382 1.5143 0.8654 32 0.2602 1.0451
MORNINGLINE 118 35 0.2966 3.25 0.8555 51 0.4322 0.8657
COMPOUNDAP 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.8504 36 0.3077 0.9128
UPR 117 22 0.188 2.06 0.8466 32 0.2735 0.7479
USERFACTOR4 117 19 0.1624 1.7795 0.8453 29 0.2479 0.7184
EARLYCONSENSUS 125 14 0.112 1.2273 0.844 30 0.24 1.0512
PACEFIG_4F_INLAST 124 13 0.1048 1.1484 0.827 33 0.2661 1.2786
CLASSCONSENSUS 125 26 0.208 2.2792 0.8224 37 0.296 0.7376
SUSTAINED 133 21 0.1579 1.7302 0.7707 28 0.2105 0.5515
COMPOUNDE2 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.7611 32 0.2735 1.1073
PRATING 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.7543 34 0.2906 0.8009
LOGICALFIG 120 14 0.1167 1.2788 0.75 30 0.25 0.9388
QRATING 117 21 0.1795 1.9669 0.744 36 0.3077 1.0094
PACEFIG_2F_INLAST 133 8 0.0602 0.6596 0.7395 27 0.203 1.059
UPRMLPROB 117 23 0.1966 2.1543 0.738 33 0.2821 0.6573
AVGBRISFIG 121 25 0.2066 2.2638 0.7302 38 0.314 0.7851
WILLTOWIN 146 18 0.1233 1.3511 0.7301 34 0.2329 0.8692
POWERCONSENSUS 126 20 0.1587 1.739 0.7087 31 0.246 0.621
PCTE 125 7 0.056 0.6136 0.6872 17 0.136 0.5532
USERFACTOR5 166 22 0.1325 1.4519 0.6729 40 0.241 0.8066
LATEPACE3 257 27 0.1051 1.1516 0.6714 52 0.2023 0.9533
COMPOUNDLATE 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.6594 23 0.1966 0.6214
PAL 128 18 0.1406 1.5406 0.652 29 0.2266 0.7242
USERFACTOR2 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.6487 30 0.2564 0.7295
LASTRACEBRISFIG 140 23 0.1643 1.8003 0.645 40 0.2857 0.8389
JPRCLASS 117 20 0.1709 1.8727 0.6444 31 0.265 0.6705
BRIS10 149 24 0.1611 1.7653 0.6419 34 0.2282 0.5674
COMPOUNDE1 117 12 0.1026 1.1243 0.6359 27 0.2308 0.9774
PACEFIT 117 12 0.1026 1.1243 0.6359 26 0.2222 0.9551
TURNTIME 124 10 0.0806 0.8832 0.6258 24 0.1935 0.769
AVGE1 127 9 0.0709 0.7769 0.622 21 0.1654 0.6043
FIGCONSENSUS 124 22 0.1774 1.9439 0.6202 36 0.2903 0.7004
FASTSLOWFINAL 169 25 0.1479 1.6206 0.6201 42 0.2485 0.7595
WEIGHTEDFIG 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 0.6115 26 0.2222 0.6265
CXN 117 10 0.0855 0.9369 0.6073 32 0.2735 1.2718
CLASSCOMPOS 124 16 0.129 1.4135 0.6056 31 0.25 0.9504
JPRMLPROB 117 20 0.1709 1.8727 0.5868 33 0.2821 0.6342
CMI 117 11 0.094 1.03 0.5731 24 0.2051 0.791
LATESLANT 118 17 0.1441 1.579 0.5699 24 0.2034 0.4678
OPTIMIZATION 133 13 0.0977 1.0706 0.5647 26 0.1955 0.7891
JRATING 118 16 0.1356 1.4859 0.561 32 0.2712 0.7767
PACELINE 148 23 0.1554 1.7028 0.552 43 0.2905 0.7139
CPACE 118 8 0.0678 0.7429 0.5492 19 0.161 0.5657
JPR 117 18 0.1538 1.6853 0.5427 33 0.2821 0.6397
ALCHEMY 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.5291 26 0.2222 0.5466
LATECONSENSUS 124 15 0.121 1.3259 0.5254 26 0.2097 0.6839
FORM 129 11 0.0853 0.9347 0.507 23 0.1783 0.6271
BRIS3 140 21 0.15 1.6436 0.5043 35 0.25 0.5889
LATEPACEINLAST 126 14 0.1111 1.2174 0.4853 26 0.2063 0.6556
CFA 117 15 0.1282 1.4048 0.4744 30 0.2564 0.6175
RACESTRENGTH 117 13 0.1111 1.2174 0.4261 22 0.188 0.6043
CLOSINGRATIO 125 9 0.072 0.7889 0.3656 18 0.144 0.6468
BESTE2 124 8 0.0645 0.7068 0.1988 25 0.2016 0.8524
USERFACTOR1 117 6 0.0513 0.5621 0.1769 18 0.1538 0.4338
****************************************************************************************
74 Factors from file: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
****************************************************************************************
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BY RIDER sorted by wins Run Date: 11/4/2009 9:59:27 AM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
UDM PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
VELAZQUEZ J R 82 13 0.1585 1.7368 1.3848 25 0.3049 1.1476
GOMEZ G K 51 10 0.1961 2.1488 1.1255 17 0.3333 1.1049
BAILEY J D 48 7 0.1458 1.5976 0.8146 15 0.3125 0.8833
DETTORI LANFRANCO 40 6 0.15 1.6436 1.68 9 0.225 1.4625
VELASQUEZ CORNELIO 31 5 0.1613 1.7675 2.5758 7 0.2258 1.4032
FLORES D R 27 5 0.1852 2.0294 2.6889 6 0.2222 1.2333
SMITH M E 31 5 0.1613 1.7675 0.4645 9 0.2903 0.8194
PRADO E S 62 4 0.0645 0.7068 0.5524 11 0.1774 1.2161
SOLIS A 37 4 0.1081 1.1845 0.7649 7 0.1892 0.6351
MCCARRON C J 12 3 0.25 2.7394 1.7208 4 0.3333 1.3667
STEVENS G L 28 3 0.1071 1.1736 0.6714 5 0.1786 0.6339
KINANE M J 24 3 0.125 1.3697 0.5542 7 0.2917 0.8688
ESPINOZA V 49 3 0.0612 0.6706 1.3204 7 0.1429 0.9327
VALENZUELA P A 26 3 0.1154 1.2645 2.1654 3 0.1154 0.95
ALBARADO R J 28 3 0.1071 1.1736 0.4607 3 0.1071 0.2214
SANTOS J A 19 2 0.1053 1.1538 2.4737 2 0.1053 0.7947
LEPAROUX JULIEN R 20 2 0.1 1.0958 0.975 4 0.2 1.205
BEJARANO R 37 2 0.0541 0.5928 0.5838 5 0.1351 0.4595
CASTELLANO J J 20 2 0.1 1.0958 0.295 4 0.2 0.495
NAKATANI C S 34 2 0.0588 0.6443 0.5853 6 0.1765 0.7794
DESORMEAUX K J 41 2 0.0488 0.5347 0.178 7 0.1707 0.7976
FALLON KIEREN 10 2 0.2 2.1915 0.58 3 0.3 1.22
PESLIER O 7 2 0.2857 3.1306 1.4 2 0.2857 0.9429
BOREL C H 7 1 0.1429 1.5658 2.3143 1 0.1429 0.9
CASTRO E 11 1 0.0909 0.996 2.3 2 0.1818 1.2182
THERIOT H J II 5 1 0.2 2.1915 0.76 1 0.2 0.36
BEASLEY J A 2 1 0.5 5.4788 19.5 1 0.5 7.4
DOMINGUEZ R A 25 1 0.04 0.4383 1.156 5 0.2 1.968
COA E M 23 1 0.0435 0.4767 0.6913 1 0.0435 0.287
FARINA TONY 5 1 0.2 2.1915 2 2 0.4 1.06
KRONE J A 6 1 0.1667 1.8266 0.55 1 0.1667 0.4
LEZCANO JOSE 6 1 0.1667 1.8266 2.0167 3 0.5 1.8167
MURTAGH JOHN P 18 1 0.0556 0.6092 0.3111 5 0.2778 0.9333
COURT J K 8 1 0.125 1.3697 0.7625 1 0.125 0.35
VALDIVIA J JR 14 1 0.0714 0.7824 0.4357 1 0.0714 0.2286
FRAZIER R L 2 1 0.5 5.4788 13.85 1 0.5 4.55
MOORE RYAN L 2 1 0.5 5.4788 3.4 1 0.5 2.1
DOUGLAS R R 14 1 0.0714 0.7824 0.2571 1 0.0714 0.1643
DAY P 31 1 0.0323 0.3539 0.429 5 0.1613 0.6226
MIGLIORE R 15 1 0.0667 0.7309 2.5 1 0.0667 1.0267
GARCIA A 11 1 0.0909 0.996 1.1545 1 0.0909 0.5182
ROSE J 4 1 0.25 2.7394 1.1 4 1 7.1
SMULLEN P J 8 1 0.125 1.3697 1.675 1 0.125 0.675
BRIDGMOHAN S X 12 1 0.0833 0.9128 0.1083 2 0.1667 0.2833
JARA FERNANDO 2 1 0.5 5.4788 3.85 1 0.5 1.45
TRUJILLO E 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 3 1 0.3333 1.5
SOUMILLON C 8 1 0.125 1.3697 1.225 1 0.125 0.7375
THULLIEZ THIERRY 2 1 0.5 5.4788 13.5 1 0.5 4.55
EGAN JOHN F 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAMBERT C T 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MARTINEZ W 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KAENEL KYLE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARROYO N JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRESCOTT R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BAZE R A 5 0 0 0 0 1 0.2 0.42
DECARLO C P 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JONES JONO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GILLET THIERRY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LANERIE C J 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TURNER T G 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MCKEE J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LUZZI M J 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ELLIOTT S 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAVIOLETTE B S 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MARTINEZ S B 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.8667
CHAVEZ J F 21 0 0 0 0 2 0.0952 0.5952
THOMPSON T J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GARCIA M S 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VEGA H 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RAMSAMMY E 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MELANCON G 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GUIDRY M 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPENCER J P 9 0 0 0 0 1 0.1111 2.0889
HUSBANDS P 6 0 0 0 0 1 0.1667 3.0167
MARTIN E M JR 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BRAVO J 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DAVIS R G 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1.5
MCKNIGHT J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DELAHOUSSAYE E 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BLANC B 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DAMICO A J 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 6.25
WILLIAMS R D 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HILLS RICHARD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MELANCON L 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LANDRY R C 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUGHES RICHARD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MARAGH RAJIV 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TAKE Y 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMACHO ERIC 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VAZ E 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PIMENTEL J 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LOPEZ C C 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 1.55
PENNINGTON F 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TALAMO JOSEPH 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RAZO E JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DIAZ VLADIMIR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BAZE M C 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COTTO P L JR 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KING E L JR 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CASTILLO H JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SMULLEN PATRICK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DOOCY T T 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HILLS R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BAZE T C 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
USKE S 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SUTHERLAND C 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COUTON JULIEN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DELGADILLO A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MARTINEZ MICHAEL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DA SILVA EURICO 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 1.65
MADRID S O 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DOMINGUEZ RAMON 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.7667
GARCIA MARTIN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRYDER A T 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
QUINONEZ ALONSO 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VELEZ J A JR 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 7.4
SORENSON D 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VERGARA O 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 8.8
ROSARIO JOEL 10 0 0 0 0 1 0.1 0.53
PINO M G 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3.8
GRAHAM J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BAIRD J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SAEZ GABRIEL 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4.4
ARAMBULA PEDRO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MECHE D J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SAMYN J L 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRUZ M R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SHEA KEVIN B 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4.8
ODONOGHUE C 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SHEPHERD J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
POTTS C L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MCNEIL F A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BERRY M C 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.8333
PEDROZA M A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PETTINGER D R 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KUNTZWEILER G 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TAYLOR L 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KABEL T K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MARQUEZ C H JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CARMOUCHE K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JOHN K 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHAPA R 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MAWING L A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LUMPKINS J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EDDERY P 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JOHNSTON M T 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ST JULIEN M 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SELLERS S J 8 0 0 0 0 2 0.25 2.4625
LOPEZ J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TORRES F C 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JUDICE J C 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PERRODIN E J 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BOEUF D 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MECHE L J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESPINOZA J L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FOGELSONGER R 5 0 0 0 0 1 0.2 0.78
GANPATH R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GONDRON T D 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CLONINGER W T 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRANDALL A L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RODRIGUEZ O 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HOLLAND D 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
****************************************************************************************
162 Riders from file: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
****************************************************************************************
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BY TRAINER sorted by wins Run Date: 11/4/2009 10:02:28 AM
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WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
UDM PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
BAFFERT BOB 35 8 0.2286 2.5049 0.8257 14 0.4 1.1457
PLETCHER TODD A 64 7 0.1094 1.1988 0.5648 15 0.2344 1.0313
FRANKEL ROBERT J 52 6 0.1154 1.2645 1.0327 12 0.2308 0.8596
ONEILL DOUG 25 5 0.2 2.1915 1.992 6 0.24 1.098
MANDELLA RICHARD E 17 5 0.2941 3.2226 3.3824 7 0.4118 1.8941
LUKAS D WAYNE 30 4 0.1333 1.4607 2.2167 6 0.2 1.0833
OBRIEN AIDAN P 49 3 0.0612 0.6706 0.2714 14 0.2857 1.7357
DUTROW RICHARD E 15 3 0.2 2.1915 1.7 5 0.3333 1.0767
*STOUTE M R 10 3 0.3 3.2873 1.63 3 0.3 1.08
MCGAUGHEY CLAUDE III14 3 0.2143 2.3482 2.6107 4 0.2857 1.3929
SADLER JOHN W 19 2 0.1053 1.1538 1.1895 2 0.1053 0.5421
CANANI JULIO C 13 2 0.1538 1.6853 0.7231 2 0.1538 0.4
JERKENS JAMES A 8 2 0.25 2.7394 1.4125 2 0.25 0.5875
ROBBINS JAY M 2 2 1 10.9576 9.05 2 1 3.85
FABRE ANDRE 10 2 0.2 2.1915 1.68 2 0.2 1.05
DUNLOP EDWARD 5 2 0.4 4.3831 0.86 3 0.6 1.23
ASMUSSEN STEVEN M 19 2 0.1053 1.1538 0.3526 3 0.1579 0.3158
ORSENO JOSEPH F 6 2 0.3333 3.6522 2.2167 2 0.3333 1.15
STEWART DALLAS 11 2 0.1818 1.9921 1.4909 2 0.1818 0.6091
MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P 9 2 0.2222 2.4348 2.2667 3 0.3333 1.4444
GOSDEN JOHN H M 8 2 0.25 2.7394 2.6625 2 0.25 1.425
HOFMANS DAVID 8 2 0.25 2.7394 9.9 2 0.25 4.0125
*BARY P 3 2 0.6667 7.3055 11.1 2 0.6667 4.2
MOTION H GRAHAM 17 2 0.1176 1.2886 1.9588 7 0.4118 2.2059
CERIN VLADIMIR 6 1 0.1667 1.8266 1.2167 1 0.1667 0.6167
HARWOOD DORIS 2 1 0.5 5.4788 13.85 1 0.5 4.55
MARGOLIS STEPHEN R 2 1 0.5 5.4788 11.9 1 0.5 4.95
ZITO NICHOLAS P 23 1 0.0435 0.4767 0.1391 2 0.087 0.4304
VANCE DAVID R 4 1 0.25 2.7394 12 2 0.5 5.475
HENNIG MARK 11 1 0.0909 0.996 0.1636 1 0.0909 0.1182
WARD WESLEY A 7 1 0.1429 1.5658 0.9143 1 0.1429 0.4571
MATZ MICHAEL R 2 1 0.5 5.4788 7.45 1 0.5 3.5
VAZQUEZ GAMALIEL 2 1 0.5 5.4788 1.9 1 0.5 0.9
CHATLOS DONALD JR 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 5.8333 1 0.3333 2.6
BROTHERS FRANK L 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 0.8 1 0.3333 0.5667
NOSEDA JEREMY 7 1 0.1429 1.5658 4.1857 1 0.1429 1.3
MANDELLA GARY 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 1 2 0.6667 2.4333
WOLFSON MARTIN D 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 8.4333 1 0.3333 2.8667
LEWIS LISA L 1 1 1 10.9576 2.5 1 1 1.7
NAFZGER CARL A 7 1 0.1429 1.5658 2.3143 1 0.1429 0.9
WALDEN W ELLIOTT 5 1 0.2 2.1915 2.32 1 0.2 1.14
WARD JOHN T JR 5 1 0.2 2.1915 0.62 2 0.4 1.24
DE SEROUX LAURA 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 0.9333 1 0.3333 0.6
*SUROOR SAEED BIN 21 1 0.0476 0.5216 0.1143 4 0.1905 0.5762
SHIRREFFS JOHN 14 1 0.0714 0.7824 0.1071 2 0.1429 0.25
DRYSDALE NEIL 14 1 0.0714 0.7824 0.3214 3 0.2143 0.7714
HEADLEY BRUCE 8 1 0.125 1.3697 0.3375 1 0.125 0.2375
BIANCONE PATRICK L 19 1 0.0526 0.5764 0.5263 2 0.1053 0.2789
MAKER REBECCA 1 1 1 10.9576 4.4 1 1 2.4
JOHNSON PHILIP G 2 1 0.5 5.4788 22.25 1 0.5 6.7
NIXON JUSTIN 1 1 1 10.9576 2.4 1 1 1.7
MEEHAN BRIAN 5 1 0.2 2.1915 2.36 1 0.2 1.12
STEIN ROGER M 1 1 1 10.9576 6.1 1 1 2.8
HARTY EOIN 11 1 0.0909 0.996 1.1727 2 0.1818 2.4364
PARISEL FRANCOIS 8 1 0.125 1.3697 1.7 1 0.125 0.5375
CATALANO WAYNE M 6 1 0.1667 1.8266 0.6 1 0.1667 0.3833
PAASCH CHRISTOPHER 4 1 0.25 2.7394 0.65 1 0.25 0.4
EVANS BART B 1 1 1 10.9576 39 1 1 14.8
NORMAN COLE 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 2.9667 1 0.3333 1.5333
CASSIDY JAMES 6 1 0.1667 1.8266 0.5667 1 0.1667 0.3333
SHEPPARD JONATHAN E 3 1 0.3333 3.6522 1.9667 2 0.6667 1.9333
HEAD FREDDIE 1 1 1 10.9576 2.8 1 1 2
DIBONA ROBERT S 1 1 1 10.9576 11.9 1 1 4.9
PUYPE MIKE 2 1 0.5 5.4788 5.7 1 0.5 2.35
EURTON PETER 1 1 1 10.9576 3.6 1 1 2.1
BECKETT RALPH 1 1 1 10.9576 13.4 1 1 5.4
BROWN CHAD C 1 1 1 10.9576 12.1 1 1 6.6
STALL ALBERT M JR 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PUHICH MIKE 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HOLLENDORFER JERRY 8 0 0 0 0 2 0.25 0.8625
PHIPPS WILLIAM 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
STIDHAM MICHAEL 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
REVIRIEGO JUAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VARGAS J BUENAVENTUR1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PLESA EDWARD JR 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 1.0333
MOORE STAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PITTS HELEN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CURRIN WILLIAM 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDERS JAMIE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
REINSTEDLER ANTHONY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NICKS RALPH E 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RICE LINDA 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARIAS JUAN D 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KIMMEL JOHN C 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DONK DAVID 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SCHWARTZ SCOTT M 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CASSE MARK 6 0 0 0 0 1 0.1667 3.0167
FERRARO M ANTHONY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VANIER HARVEY L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GOLDBERG ALAN E 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DE ROUALLE JEAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SCHOSBERG RICHARD 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MCGEE PAUL 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHAPMAN JAMES K 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PERKINS BEN JR 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GREELY C BEAU 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AZPURUA MANUEL J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HOLTHUS ROBERT E 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DE GANNES GREGORY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MCKEEVER BILLY C JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*ROUGET J C 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SHIROTA MITCH 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIBAUD ERIC 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RITCHEY TIM F 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2.5
JENSEN DAN M 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MAKER MICHAEL J 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CASCIO C W BUBBA 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TAGG BARCLAY 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TULLOCK TIMOTHY JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PETALINO JOE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VON HEMEL DONNIE K 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KEEN DALLAS 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TROUT C R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OSBORN O J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LOVELL MICHELLE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHEW MATTHEW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
YAMAUCHI KENJI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HINES N J 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPAWR WILLIAM 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SCHULHOFER FLINT S 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SHERMAN ART 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHAPMAN JAMES R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DANNER DOUG 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ALBERTRANI THOMAS 3 0 0 0 0 2 0.6667 1.3667
CONTRERAS GERARDO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BRUNER JACK A 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TERRANOVA JOHN P II 6 0 0 0 0 2 0.3333 0.9083
SHERLOCK GARY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DELEON RAFAEL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PROCTOR THOMAS F 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KIRBY FRANK J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GALLAGHER PATRICK 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GRAHAM ROBIN L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FOLEY GREG 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
INDA EDUARDO 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOTT WILLIAM I 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JONES J LARRY 3 0 0 0 0 2 0.6667 2.7333
STUTE MELVIN F 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE 13 0 0 0 0 1 0.0769 0.3308
LUCARELLI FRANK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HEAD-MAAREK CHRISTIA2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DOLLASE WALLACE 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAPUANO DALE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PEITZ DAN C 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEAHY MICHAEL P 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PINO MICHAEL V 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OBRIEN CHARLES 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WELD DERMOT K 8 0 0 0 0 1 0.125 0.35
VIENNA DARRELL 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE SCOTT A 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 5.5
FAIRLIE SCOTT H 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOREY WILLIAM J JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DIMAURO STEPHEN L 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ROBERTSON HUGH 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.8667
ORMAN J MICHAEL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HERRICK JOE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CARAVA JACK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENNEY JIM 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MAREINA MICHAEL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SMITH MICHAEL R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BOWMAN CARL 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ASMUSSEN CHERYL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LOBO PAULO H 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.7667
STUTTS BENNIE F JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*FUJISAWA K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GORHAM MICHAEL E 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DE KOCK MICHAEL F 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4.8
MCPEEK KENNETH G 8 0 0 0 0 2 0.25 2.1125
WERNER RONNY 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OCALLAGHAN NIALL M 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MCCARTHY SEAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BURKE DONALD J II 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ATTFIELD ROGER 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KORINER BRIAN 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WALLACE JERRY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JOHNSON MURRAY W 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SOLIS WALTHER 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FIGGINS OLLIE L III 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE JAMES 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AMOSS THOMAS F 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHO MYUNG KWON 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIVESAY CHARLIE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*STACK T 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AUTREY CODY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KAPPES STEVEN W 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1.5
GONZALEZ JUAN PACO 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CECIL B D A 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SALZMAN JOHN E 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 2.7
KATRYAN ABRAHAM R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MILLER NORMAN C III 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FANNING JERRY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ZUCKER HOWARD L 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DOLLASE CRAIG 10 0 0 0 0 1 0.1 0.46
SCANLAN JOHN F 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ROHAUT FRANCOIS 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KEOUGH MICHAEL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*CUMANI L M 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ANDERSON PETE D 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FEHR JOHN ALEC 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SCHULHOFER RANDY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
POWELL LEONARD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LOPEZ JASON 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MULLINS JEFF 7 0 0 0 0 2 0.2857 0.8286
KELLY PATRICK J 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PERRY WILLIAM W 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 14.8
WALSH KATHY 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VESTAL PETER M 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*BRITTAIN C E 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SERVIS JOHN C 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ABRAMS BARRY 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAUNSCH JOSEPH J 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 5.7
WILLIS MINDY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HILLS BARRY W 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GREENMAN DEAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MORI HIDEYUKI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HORII MASAHIRO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAFFON-PARIAS CARLOS1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BELL DAVE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FOUT PAUL R 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SCHIERGEN PETER 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PERRETT AMANDA 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BELL THOMAS R II 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JOLLEY LEROY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FLINT BERNARD S 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BLASI SCOTT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KENNEALLY EDDIE 4 0 0 0 0 1 0.25 1.95
WEST TED H 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 3.15
CAIN JOE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
STUTE WARREN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TROMBETTA MICHAEL J 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 1.05
GARCIA JUAN V 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 9.5
LELLOUCHE ELIE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GLATT MARK 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MCANALLY RONALD 8 0 0 0 0 1 0.125 0.875
SAHADI JENINE 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BERNSTEIN DAVID 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MONTELEONE FRANK J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*HAMMOND J E 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MILLER DARRIN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHAPPLE HYAM JANE 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2.6
LODER DAVID 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CANET JULIAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRECIADO GUADALUPE 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MCBURNEY PATRICK B 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SLEETER KEVIN F 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JACKSON KIM 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TARRANT AMY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SALZMAN TIMOTHY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEE GARRY F 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SMITH HAMILTON A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SEEWALD ALAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FOX GREGORY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GAMBOLATI CAM 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DIVITO JAMES P 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BAKER READE 4 0 0 0 0 2 0.5 2.85
VON HEMEL KELLY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KLESARIS STEVE 4 0 0 0 0 1 0.25 4.675
LEVINE BRUCE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DAY-PHILLIPS CATHERI2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JOHNSTON MARK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TAMMARO JOHN J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VOSS THOMAS H 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HILD GLENN L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BREEN KELLY J 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RYAN DEREK S 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLY TIMOTHY J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DUTROW ANTHONY W 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 2.4
POMPAY TERRI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RYERSON JAMES T 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GEIST DAVID W 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CARLESIMO CHARLES JR1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BOTTAZZI PATRICK L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ALLEN RANDY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SACCO GREGORY D 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CROLL WARREN A JR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ZIADIE RALPH 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JERKENS H ALLEN 7 0 0 0 0 1 0.1429 0.9143
ENGLAND PHILLIP 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FROSTAD MARK 6 0 0 0 0 1 0.1667 2.3333
STEWART ALEC 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DELP GROVER G 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AVILA A C 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 8.8
TONER JAMES J 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BALTAS RICHARD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BROWN WILSON L 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.8333
COSTA FRANK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
YOUNG STACY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GLENNEY JOHN 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FRENCH NEIL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DINI MIKE 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RIBAUDO ROBERT J 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SMITH THOMAS V 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JONES MARTIN F 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SCOTT JOAN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUBLEY MARK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
YOUNG BOB 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SHEENA KAMEL S 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HESS R B JR 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HILLS TIMOTHY A 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.8
BARBARA ROBERT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WIGGINS HAL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SHUMAN MARK 7 0 0 0 0 1 0.1429 0.5286
ELLIS RONALD W 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MANNING DENNIS J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
REYNOLDS PATRICK J 4 0 0 0 0 1 0.25 0.625
SKIFFINGTON THOMAS J1 0 0 0 0 1 1 5.7
CENICOLA LEWIS A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BECERRA RAFAEL 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KNIGHT TERRY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESORMEAUX J KEITH 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
KITCHINGMAN ADAM 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEGGIO ANDREW JR 4 0 0 0 0 1 0.25 1.775
GALLUSCIO DOMINICK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BARNETT BOBBY C 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MULHALL KRISTIN 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLLET ROBERT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PEERY CHUCK 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MILLER PETER 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SIMON CHARLES 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VIOLETTE RICHARD JR 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GUILLOT ERIC 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
POLANCO MARCELO 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*PEASE J E 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OXX JOHN M 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MITCHELL MIKE 10 0 0 0 0 4 0.4 1.4
BEATTIE TODD M 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUTLER GERARD A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SULLIVAN LYNN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUSHION MICHAEL E 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ROMANS DALE 7 0 0 0 0 2 0.2857 0.7857
BAILES W ROBERT 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1.7
PENNA ANGEL JR 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 4.4
BUSH THOMAS M 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MITCHELL ANTHONY 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VELLA DANIEL J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HOUGH STANLEY M 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GILCHRIST GREG 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SISE CLIFFORD JR 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 1.65
DUNN STEPHEN D 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BYRNE PATRICK B 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BENSON MACDONALD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
*CECIL H R A 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GAINES CARLA 5 0 0 0 0 2 0.4 1.48
HENDRICKS DAN L 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WACHMAN D 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARNOLD GEORGE R II 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FOLEY VICKIE L 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
****************************************************************************************
348 Trainers from file: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
****************************************************************************************
~
~
~
~
~
By: 21 TheOdds
~
>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -1.40 4.00 0.6500 1 2 .5000
0.50 1.00 -8.50 30.00 0.7167 6 15 .4000
1.00 1.50 -10.80 30.00 0.6400 4 15 .2667
1.50 2.00 7.90 40.00 1.1975 9 20 .4500
2.00 2.50 6.30 64.00 1.0984 11 32 .3438
2.50 3.00 -9.80 76.00 0.8711 9 38 .2368
3.00 3.50 -17.60 60.00 0.7067 5 30 .1667
3.50 4.00 -51.00 88.00 0.4205 4 44 .0909
4.00 4.50 -61.00 82.00 0.2561 2 41 .0488
4.50 5.00 -7.20 70.00 0.8971 6 35 .1714
5.00 5.50 -8.20 70.00 0.8829 5 35 .1429
5.50 6.00 32.60 48.00 1.6792 6 24 .2500
6.00 6.50 -16.80 60.00 0.7200 3 30 .1000
6.50 7.00 -6.80 38.00 0.8211 2 19 .1053
7.00 7.50 -35.60 52.00 0.3154 1 26 .0385
7.50 8.00 -30.20 48.00 0.3708 1 24 .0417
8.00 8.50 0.80 54.00 1.0148 3 27 .1111
8.50 9.00 -38.40 58.00 0.3379 1 29 .0345
9.00 9999.00 22.90 1614.00 1.0142 39 807 .0483
to be continued...
|
jeff
11/4/2009
1:40:09 PM | My BC strategy - a high level look...
More often than not Breeder's Cup means big fields, contention that runs deep, lots of interest from casual players, and very large pools. These elements work to present us with opportunities that don't exist on a typical Saturday race card.
The numbers speak for themselves. Over the past 9 years, a flat $2.00 win bet on every CLEAN starter in every race on both Breeder's Cup days would have returned a 0.93 roi. A flat $2.00 win bet on every starter with no handicapping whatsoever would have returned 91 cents for every $1.00 bet. That's about 16 cents per dollar higher than racing in general - something I find significant.
Over the years my BC strategey has evolved into a willingness to go DEEP into races to identify CONTENDERS... coupled with a willingness to bet any contender provided the public doesn't like that contender.
The strategy could be defined as one that uses two rules:
1. Use minimal handicapping
2. Wait for and bet obvious public mistakes
I need to point out that this approach won't work on races in general... mainly because the elements of large deep fields combined with large pools fueled by money from casual fans is no longer present when you look at races in general.
But on BC day when these elements are present... I'll make the argument that a different strategy is called for.
-jp
.
to be continued...
|
jeff
11/4/2009
2:01:20 PM | BC Strategy continued - what works / what doesn't work / and why...
Over the years on BC day the public has had a strong tendency to overbet final time based speed figs. At the same time the public has had a strong tendency to underbet form.
Here are all starters in the database broken out by both CFA and AFR:
query start: 11/4/2009 10:47:32 AM
query end: 11/4/2009 10:47:34 AM
elapsed time: 2 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (
From Index File: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
~
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 2353.20 2261.70 2152.40
Bet -2586.00 -2586.00 -2586.00
Gain -232.80 -324.30 -433.60
~
Wins 118 234 351
Plays 1293 1293 1293
PCT .0913 .1810 .2715
~
ROI 0.9100 0.8746 0.8323
Avg Mut 19.94 9.67 6.13
~
~
By: CFA Rank
~
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -123.00 234.00 0.4744 15 117 .1282 1.4048
2 -105.20 236.00 0.5542 13 118 .1102 1.2072
3 -101.90 254.00 0.5988 10 127 .0787 0.8628
4 -29.00 236.00 0.8771 11 118 .0932 1.0215
5 19.40 238.00 1.0815 11 119 .0924 1.0129
6 64.20 234.00 1.2744 11 117 .0940 1.0302
7 68.80 224.00 1.3071 14 112 .1250 1.3697
8 -134.60 200.00 0.3270 4 100 .0400 0.4383
9 -88.20 218.00 0.5954 7 109 .0642 0.7037
10 196.00 176.00 2.1136 13 88 .1477 1.6187
11 59.00 184.00 1.3207 6 92 .0652 0.7146
12 -8.30 102.00 0.9186 3 51 .0588 0.6446
13 -40.00 40.00 0.0000 0 20 .0000 0.0000
14 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000
~
~
~
~
~
By: AFR Rank
~
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 150.50 234.00 1.6432 18 117 .1538 1.6858
2 97.10 234.00 1.4150 19 117 .1624 1.7794
3 -4.70 236.00 0.9801 15 118 .1271 1.3929
4 -53.40 232.00 0.7698 9 116 .0776 0.8502
5 -159.80 238.00 0.3286 6 119 .0504 0.5525
6 -15.40 226.00 0.9319 7 113 .0619 0.6788
7 -118.40 222.00 0.4667 6 111 .0541 0.5923
8 51.00 214.00 1.2383 11 107 .1028 1.1265
9 -66.00 196.00 0.6633 7 98 .0714 0.7827
10 -13.40 178.00 0.9247 8 89 .0899 0.9850
11 -25.60 148.00 0.8270 5 74 .0676 0.7404
12 -5.90 118.00 0.9500 5 59 .0847 0.9286
13 -42.80 84.00 0.4905 2 42 .0476 0.5218
14 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000 0.0000
Notice that the win rates for both factors follow the general trend of being higher the better the horse is rated by that factor.
However, the public appears overly focused on final time based speed figs. As a result, the avg win mutuel from horses showing the best speed figs is NOT where I'll be looking for overlays.
-jp
.
to be continued...
|
jeff
11/4/2009
2:17:14 PM | Here are all starters in my BC database where E~BettorsToteProb is greater than or equal to 1.0... which represents theoretical overlays in the Live Play Module...
The data is broken out by a handful of factors that I've found to be a good source of both hidden and obvious positives on BC day:
query start: 11/4/2009 10:43:38 AM
query end: 11/4/2009 10:43:40 AM
elapsed time: 2 seconds
~
Data Window Settings:
E~ BettorsToteProb >= 1.00 Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\BreedersCupHistory\BC2\pl_BreedersCup_00-08.txt
~
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 1292.40 1182.50 1120.60
Bet -1382.00 -1382.00 -1382.00
Gain -89.60 -199.50 -261.40
~
Wins 34 78 133
Plays 691 691 691
PCT .0492 .1129 .1925
~
ROI 0.9352 0.8556 0.8109
Avg Mut 38.01 15.16 8.43
~
~
By: AFR Rank
~
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 152.50 156.00 1.9776 8 78 .1026 2.0845
2 94.00 152.00 1.6184 8 76 .1053 2.1393
3 -23.00 140.00 0.8357 3 70 .0429 0.8710
4 5.40 126.00 1.0429 4 63 .0635 1.2904
5 -136.00 136.00 0.0000 0 68 .0000 0.0000
6 14.80 122.00 1.1213 3 61 .0492 0.9995
7 -69.40 128.00 0.4578 1 64 .0156 0.3176
8 17.60 116.00 1.1517 2 58 .0345 0.7008
9 -9.00 106.00 0.9151 4 53 .0755 1.5339
10 -58.00 58.00 0.0000 0 29 .0000 0.0000
11 -58.00 58.00 0.0000 0 29 .0000 0.0000
12 23.50 40.00 1.5875 1 20 .0500 1.0162
13 -32.00 32.00 0.0000 0 16 .0000 0.0000
14 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
~
~
~
~
~
By: JPR Rank
~
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -75.30 116.00 0.3509 3 58 .0517 1.0512
2 49.40 144.00 1.3431 8 72 .1111 2.2582
3 40.20 134.00 1.3000 5 67 .0746 1.5167
4 53.20 134.00 1.3970 4 67 .0597 1.2133
5 -71.80 126.00 0.4302 2 63 .0317 0.6452
6 109.00 132.00 1.8258 5 66 .0758 1.5397
7 -71.00 142.00 0.5000 2 71 .0282 0.5725
8 19.60 114.00 1.1719 2 57 .0351 0.7131
9 -92.00 92.00 0.0000 0 46 .0000 0.0000
10 45.60 88.00 1.5182 2 44 .0455 0.9238
11 -66.00 66.00 0.0000 0 33 .0000 0.0000
12 -48.00 48.00 0.0000 0 24 .0000 0.0000
13 29.50 34.00 1.8676 1 17 .0588 1.1955
14 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000
~
~
~
~
~
By: QRating Rank
~
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -54.10 118.00 0.5415 5 59 .0847 1.7223
2 39.40 112.00 1.3518 4 56 .0714 1.4517
3 128.80 132.00 1.9758 6 66 .0909 1.8476
4 -69.40 130.00 0.4662 3 65 .0462 0.9380
5 53.00 150.00 1.3533 6 75 .0800 1.6259
6 47.20 126.00 1.3746 3 63 .0476 0.9678
7 -35.00 122.00 0.7131 2 61 .0328 0.6663
8 -118.00 118.00 0.0000 0 59 .0000 0.0000
9 -29.00 104.00 0.7212 1 52 .0192 0.3908
10 -40.40 96.00 0.5792 1 48 .0208 0.4234
11 2.00 76.00 1.0263 1 38 .0263 0.5348
12 -25.60 46.00 0.4435 1 23 .0435 0.8836
13 21.50 42.00 1.5119 1 21 .0476 0.9678
14 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000
~
~
~
~
~
By: CFA Rank
~
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -83.30 124.00 0.3282 3 62 .0484 0.9834
2 -77.40 154.00 0.4974 5 77 .0649 1.3197
3 -38.60 164.00 0.7646 5 82 .0610 1.2392
4 24.00 114.00 1.2105 3 57 .0526 1.0697
5 0.60 138.00 1.0043 3 69 .0435 0.8836
6 39.60 130.00 1.3046 3 65 .0462 0.9380
7 4.60 118.00 1.0390 3 59 .0508 1.0334
8 -60.20 90.00 0.3311 1 45 .0222 0.4516
9 -116.00 116.00 0.0000 0 58 .0000 0.0000
10 158.60 76.00 3.0868 5 38 .1316 2.6741
11 71.00 82.00 1.8659 2 41 .0488 0.9914
12 17.50 46.00 1.3804 1 23 .0435 0.8836
13 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000 0.0000
14 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
Notice where the opportunity for profit exists?
1. With the top AFR horses.
2. Not with the top ranked power rating horses... but with ranks 2-6.
3. Not with the top ranked speed fig horses... but with ranks 4-7.
I have a handful of simple BC UDMs based on the above.
Again - keep it simple... Don't over handicap. Instead, identify and bet obvious public mistakes.
BC has been one of the few days each year where large deep fields combined with huge pools fueled by money from casual players has historically created some very unique wagering opportunities.
Good Luck to you,
-jp
.
|
ArlJim78
11/4/2009
3:22:01 PM | great information Jeff. thanks.
|
bettheoverlay
11/4/2009
7:07:11 PM | The new FormConsensus factor ranked 1-3 won 7 of the 9 synthetic stakes at Santa Anita last year on the 2 Breeders Cup days. Also R1 tagged Desert Code in the turf sprint. PClass R1-5 won 6 of the 8 turf routes and R1 tagged RavensPass in the Classic. Consistency also good, as it and PClass will tag the Euro horses.
|
Charlie James
11/7/2009
9:50:40 PM | Jeff,
I certainly hope you took some of your own advice :)
afr 1-4 with divisor = 1.2 produced 2 longshot winners on the bc card:
R4
Winner $52.60 $19.20 $12.00
Runner Up $13.20 $8.60
Show horse $9.20
$1 exa $227.90
$1 tri $2145.90
R7
Winner $44.60 $18.40 $9.60
All I can say is muchas gracias my friend,
Chuck
|
capperlou
11/8/2009
12:47:59 PM |
Charlie: I'll second your words and praise. I was intently watching AFR and thus it was a great day.
I had the exacta in the 52+ winner race. Followed that up with the #2 44.60 winner with a saver on the #3 which finished 3rd.
Thanks very much Jeff for providing the key factors info. It made the difference.
Jcapper just keeps on amazing me at what it can do for those of us who USE IT instead of our old theories and methods from years back.
~Edited by: capperlou on: 11/8/2009 at: 12:47:59 PM~
|
parshooter
11/9/2009
11:46:56 PM | Thank You Jeff. Really appreciate your assistance.
|
