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-- CRC and Delaware?

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CRC and Delaware?

DeanT
4/20/2008
11:14:48 PM

Should I download some old data and play? Are these tracks kind to Jcapper?

Just wondering, as I figure I might take a stab.

ryesteve
4/21/2008
9:46:11 AM

My own personal experience is that CRC is tough (lots of short-priced winners and "value" horses don't pan out) and DEL isn't awful, but it's not all that great. I'd put DEL in the same category as FL, which is also getting started now.

Two observations which might be more helpful: there seems to be no reason to be afraid of KEE anymore. I can't say I've had the courage to have been betting them, but my UDMs have been performing ridiculously well. And a small track that most people probably don't bother with, but seems especially predictive Jcapper-wise, is Fonner.

DeanT
4/21/2008
10:34:07 AM

Thanks Steve. I have been fortunate that I have gotten to play around with some Calder data this morning. Is this what Gordon Pine calls a "inside money" track?!

The data I have looked at seems to fit your description perfectly.

I am having trouble finding what wins here in a profitable way. It seems to be a bit all over the map. Altho last year cpace 1 in sprints looks to be slightly profitable and a UDM or two I have for dirt sprints on speed favoring are around break-even. I'll give it one more sweep with a favorites index file, that's about it.

Thanks for the heads up on both tracks. And agree on KEE. Amazing what a little bit of speed back in the fold does for my udm's there.

JimG
4/21/2008
1:43:25 PM

I'm not sure you can play Calder online at this time, even if you wanted to. Guess the horseman's association wants us to go to the track to play. Kind of a long drive from VA to spend the day in Miami. Maybe I should check the flight prices.

Jim

bettheoverlay
4/21/2008
3:07:29 PM

I played around with both DEL and CRC last fall. DEL is well below average in ROI for both JPR and my UPR. A steady stream of short fields, lots of scratches and low win prices. And because they have implemented a steroid ban starting this year, they will probably have even smaller fields with fewer shippers.

CRC dirt seemed inconsistent and below average in ROI as well, but I need to give it another look. I highly recommend CRC turf races though. Last quarter of 2007 I have JPRClass Rank 1 as 31/119 ROI 1.19.

Hdcper
4/21/2008
6:42:03 PM

From 2007, it looks like Cpace rank 1 is a good starting point for Calder Sprints.

There were 284 winners out of 1031 races with an ROI of 1.11.



Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     Dirt (All*)  SPRINTS  (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\ZDATABASE2007FINALYR\pL_profile.txt)
     Track: CRC 

     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals   11940.40  11557.10  11734.90
     Bet            -15726.00 -15726.00 -15726.00
     Gain            -3785.60  -4168.90  -3991.10

     Wins                1035      2062      3071
     Plays               7863      7863      7863
     PCT                .1316     .2622     .3906

     ROI               0.7593    0.7349    0.7462
     Avg Mut            11.54      5.60      3.82


     By: CPace Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
                   1     232.00   2062.00    1.1125    284   1031   .2755     2.0927  
                   2    -519.80   2066.00    0.7484    177   1033   .1713     1.3017  
                   3    -629.80   2082.00    0.6975    166   1041   .1595     1.2114  
                   4    -500.00   2078.00    0.7594    131   1039   .1261     0.9579  
                   5    -533.60   2072.00    0.7425    101   1036   .0975     0.7406  
                   6    -680.20   1912.00    0.6442     73    956   .0764     0.5801  
                   7    -604.80   1486.00    0.5930     51    743   .0686     0.5215  
                   8    -456.80    906.00    0.4958     23    453   .0508     0.3857  
                   9    -115.40    554.00    0.7917     15    277   .0542     0.4114  
                  10      91.80    304.00    1.3020     10    152   .0658     0.4998  
                  11     -40.00    140.00    0.7143      3     70   .0429     0.3256  
                  12     -27.00     62.00    0.5645      1     31   .0323     0.2451  
                  13      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  14       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  15       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  16       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  17       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  18       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  19       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000

DeanT
4/24/2008
10:55:40 AM

Thanks for that fellas again.

I have decided not to do either track this year. Caler for other reasons. Gosh they make me scratch my head.

I have done some work at HOL. Seems speed held well yesterday. Jeff's pick in the seventh was a monster. Not often you see a 30-1 shot limbed four and five wide around the turn win like that. That trainer obviously had him ready.

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General Discussion -- CRC and Delaware?

General Discussion
-- CRC and Delaware?