Program Update Week of 3-20-2009
I have been working on cranking out the next program update for some time now. I had hoped to have it ready by end of day Thurs 3-19-2009. It's just after midnight - and although much of it is ready to go right now - there's still more to be done before everything in the update can be considered tested and ready for general use. Rather than release the update as is I'm going to take another few days to finish things to 100 percent completion before it goes to general release.
Here's what you guys can expect to find when the release date arrives:
1. Data Window Exacta Matrices - You will be able to run any Data Window query (ALL button or UDM button) and see your data broken out by sections that represent an exacta matrix. The two that are completed so far are EXA MATRIX BY ODDS RANK and EXA MATRIX BY UPR RANK where you will see data that looks very much like this for Odds and UPR Ranks 1 through 8:
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2008\pl_2008_EXA.txt
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Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 5645.10 4787.40 4339.20
Bet -4374.00 -4374.00 -4374.00
Gain 1271.10 413.40 -34.80
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Wins 360 677 956
Plays 2187 2187 2187
PCT .1646 .3096 .4371
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ROI 1.2906 1.0945 0.9920
Avg Mut 15.68 7.07 4.54
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Exacta Matrix Odds Rank = 1
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV1/FAV2 000003 000086 0.0349 000100.60 -000172.00 -000071.40 0.5849
FAV1/FAV3 000009 000086 0.1047 000342.70 -000172.00 000170.70 1.9924
FAV1/FAV4 000003 000086 0.0349 000124.20 -000172.00 -000047.80 0.7221
FAV1/FAV5 000003 000086 0.0349 000186.70 -000172.00 000014.70 1.0855
FAV1/FAV6 000001 000086 0.0116 000071.40 -000172.00 -000100.60 0.4151
FAV1/FAV7 000001 000083 0.0120 000063.50 -000166.00 -000102.50 0.3825
FAV1/FAV8 000003 000075 0.0400 000311.00 -000150.00 000161.00 2.0733
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FAV1/X 000023 000588 0.0391 001200.10 -001176.00 000024.10 1.0205
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV2/FAV1 000002 000086 0.0233 000057.80 -000172.00 -000114.20 0.3360
FAV3/FAV1 000003 000086 0.0349 000118.60 -000172.00 -000053.40 0.6895
FAV4/FAV1 000002 000086 0.0233 000116.80 -000172.00 -000055.20 0.6791
FAV5/FAV1 000003 000086 0.0349 000174.80 -000172.00 000002.80 1.0163
FAV6/FAV1 000000 000086 0.0000 000000.00 -000172.00 -000172.00 0.0000
FAV7/FAV1 000001 000083 0.0120 000359.20 -000166.00 000193.20 2.1639
FAV8/FAV1 000001 000075 0.0133 000086.20 -000150.00 -000063.80 0.5747
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X/FAV1 000012 000588 0.0204 000913.40 -001176.00 -000262.60 0.7767
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Exacta Matrix Odds Rank = 2
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV2/FAV1 000013 000209 0.0622 000325.00 -000418.00 -000093.00 0.7775
FAV2/FAV3 000010 000209 0.0478 000502.40 -000418.00 000084.40 1.2019
FAV2/FAV4 000007 000209 0.0335 000395.50 -000418.00 -000022.50 0.9462
FAV2/FAV5 000003 000209 0.0144 000211.90 -000418.00 -000206.10 0.5069
FAV2/FAV6 000005 000209 0.0239 000530.10 -000418.00 000112.10 1.2682
FAV2/FAV7 000005 000182 0.0275 000561.70 -000364.00 000197.70 1.5431
FAV2/FAV8 000001 000148 0.0068 000176.60 -000296.00 -000119.40 0.5966
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FAV2/X 000044 001375 0.0320 002703.20 -002750.00 -000046.80 0.9830
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV1/FAV2 000023 000209 0.1100 000499.70 -000418.00 000081.70 1.1955
FAV3/FAV2 000007 000209 0.0335 000320.00 -000418.00 -000098.00 0.7656
FAV4/FAV2 000004 000209 0.0191 000251.40 -000418.00 -000166.60 0.6014
FAV5/FAV2 000005 000209 0.0239 000464.80 -000418.00 000046.80 1.1120
FAV6/FAV2 000000 000209 0.0000 000000.00 -000418.00 -000418.00 0.0000
FAV7/FAV2 000003 000182 0.0165 000604.00 -000364.00 000240.00 1.6593
FAV8/FAV2 000001 000148 0.0068 000178.50 -000296.00 -000117.50 0.6030
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X/FAV2 000043 001375 0.0313 002318.40 -002750.00 -000431.60 0.8431
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Exacta Matrix Odds Rank = 3
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV3/FAV1 000032 000458 0.0699 001236.10 -000916.00 000320.10 1.3495
FAV3/FAV2 000021 000458 0.0459 000848.00 -000916.00 -000068.00 0.9258
FAV3/FAV4 000014 000458 0.0306 000996.60 -000916.00 000080.60 1.0880
FAV3/FAV5 000013 000458 0.0284 000993.40 -000916.00 000077.40 1.0845
FAV3/FAV6 000002 000458 0.0044 000269.80 -000916.00 -000646.20 0.2945
FAV3/FAV7 000004 000387 0.0103 000514.20 -000774.00 -000259.80 0.6643
FAV3/FAV8 000002 000285 0.0070 000449.50 -000570.00 -000120.50 0.7886
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FAV3/X 000088 002962 0.0297 005307.60 -005924.00 -000616.40 0.8959
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV1/FAV3 000035 000458 0.0764 000829.40 -000916.00 -000086.60 0.9055
FAV2/FAV3 000014 000458 0.0306 000619.80 -000916.00 -000296.20 0.6766
FAV4/FAV3 000008 000458 0.0175 000774.50 -000916.00 -000141.50 0.8455
FAV5/FAV3 000007 000458 0.0153 000924.80 -000916.00 000008.80 1.0096
FAV6/FAV3 000008 000458 0.0175 001206.00 -000916.00 000290.00 1.3166
FAV7/FAV3 000003 000387 0.0078 000675.20 -000774.00 -000098.80 0.8724
FAV8/FAV3 000002 000285 0.0070 000888.40 -000570.00 000318.40 1.5586
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FAV1-8/FAV3 000077 002962 0.0260 005918.10 -005924.00 -000005.90 0.9990
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Exacta Matrix Odds Rank = 4
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV4/FAV1 000022 000495 0.0444 000977.60 -000990.00 -000012.40 0.9875
FAV4/FAV2 000017 000495 0.0343 001036.50 -000990.00 000046.50 1.0470
FAV4/FAV3 000015 000495 0.0303 000954.60 -000990.00 -000035.40 0.9642
FAV4/FAV5 000014 000495 0.0283 001380.10 -000990.00 000390.10 1.3940
FAV4/FAV6 000005 000495 0.0101 000716.80 -000990.00 -000273.20 0.7240
FAV4/FAV7 000008 000416 0.0192 002003.70 -000832.00 001171.70 2.4083
FAV4/FAV8 000001 000302 0.0033 000287.20 -000604.00 -000316.80 0.4755
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FAV4/X 000082 003193 0.0257 007356.50 -006386.00 000970.50 1.1520
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Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
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FAV1/FAV4 000034 000495 0.0687 000895.20 -000990.00 -000094.80 0.9042
FAV2/FAV4 000014 000495 0.0283 000673.00 -000990.00 -000317.00 0.6798
FAV3/FAV4 000020 000495 0.0404 001211.80 -000990.00 000221.80 1.2240
FAV5/FAV4 000004 000495 0.0081 000418.20 -000990.00 -000571.80 0.4224
FAV6/FAV4 000005 000495 0.0101 000644.00 -000990.00 -000346.00 0.6505
FAV7/FAV4 000003 000416 0.0072 000593.90 -000832.00 -000238.10 0.7138
FAV8/FAV4 000001 000302 0.0033 000000.00 -000604.00 -000604.00 0.0000
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X/FAV4 000081 003193 0.0254 004436.10 -006386.00 -001949.90 0.6947...
This has been a long time coming and represents an incredible amount of detail oriented programming work. This new feature should go a long way towards dispelling more than a few widely held myths about exacta play.
2. FastSlowPace - This new factor is the result of a little research I've been doing where pace of the most recent race is compared against par pace for the level. The theory behind this is that horses coming out of fast pace races tend to end up with running lines that are distorted and extra ugly. Such running lines may not be representative of what the horse may be able to achieve in today's race when facing different competition or a different pace match up today.
I experimented by comparing the par values used by Bris in the fields in the data file listed as "Bris Race Shape" against a simple proprietary mechanical par calculation that I devised. Large sample data studies show that the mechanical pars produced a better roi than Bris race shape pars - so that's what I used.
Expect to find FastSlowPace as a fully grabbable factor in the UDM Wizard.
3. FastSlowFinal - This new factor is an offshoot of the same research that produced FastSlowPace. FastSlowFinal is the result of comparing the horse's final time based speed fig from its most recent race against par for the level. The theory behind this is that horses coming out of exceptionally strong races tend to end up with running lines that are distorted and ugly. Such running lines may not be representative of what the horse may be able to achieve in today's race facing different competition.
Again, I experimented by comparing the par values used by Bris in the fields in the data file listed as "Bris Race Shape" against a simple proprietary mechanical par calculation that I devised. And again, large sample data studies show that the mechanical pars produce a better roi than Bris race shape pars - so that's what I used.
Expect to find FastSlowFinal as a fully grabbable factor in the UDM Wizard.
4. Bug Fixes -
TSN Trainer Names
RyeSteve reported a problem where names for the same trainer are listed differently in multiple places within TSN data files. Bris lists their names in a uniform manner so Bris users have not been impacted by this. Expect to find the problem addressed in the coming program update.
LRBF Preset Filters
Arnold D (a brand new JCapper user) discovered a bug in the LRBF (last race bris fig) preset filters where filter codes were "aliasing." Aliasing refers to code or logic in the program mistaking one filter code for another. Filter codes designed to remove LRBF ranks 10 and above... filter codes LRBF10+, LRBF11+, and LRBF12+ were being picked up by logic in the program that handles filter code LRBF1. Long story short LRBF10+ would remove ranks 10 and above AND rank 1. The issue is addressed in the coming program update.
Expect the update to be out in a few days. Thanks for your patience.
-jp
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PS. If you are a new customer and haven't received a premananet user id yet expect me to email it to you once the new program update is ready. The updated program will recognize your new user id. Until then continue to use the temp id that I gave you.
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