Database Handicapping Software- JCapper

JCapper Message Board

          General Discussion
                      -- Favourites

Home Register
Log In
By Favourites
TPW
3/8/2009
10:40:43 PM		I've noticed that alot of favourites have been winning recently and even heard Andy Serling speaking about some heavy hitter that has been stepping in early and pounding some Aqueduct horses to unreasonable levels.

Decided to have a look at Odds Rank from 2006 through today's races. Here is what I found;


code:
Data Window Settings:
     Divisor = 999      Odds Cap: None
     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2006\pl_profile.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals  178350.30 176398.80 175225.30
     Bet           -228616.00-228616.00-228616.00
     Gain           -50265.70 -52217.20 -53390.70

     Wins               14330     28481     41949
     Plays             114308    114308    114308
     PCT                .1254     .2492     .3670

     ROI               0.7801    0.7716    0.7665
     Avg Mut            12.45      6.19      4.18


     By: Odds Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
                   1   -5201.20  30048.00    0.8269   5101  15024   .3395     2.7083  
                   2   -5024.00  28258.00    0.8222   2943  14129   .2083     1.6615  
                   3   -5260.80  28482.00    0.8153   2140  14241   .1503     1.1987  
                   4   -5754.60  28134.00    0.7955   1497  14067   .1064     0.8489  
                   5   -6030.10  27798.00    0.7831   1079  13899   .0776     0.6193  
                   6   -5599.90  26110.00    0.7855    737  13055   .0565     0.4503  
                   7   -6248.20  21744.00    0.7126    415  10872   .0382     0.3045  
                   8   -5590.40  16158.00    0.6540    207   8079   .0256     0.2044  
                   9   -2073.30  10616.00    0.8047    127   5308   .0239     0.1909  
                  10   -2268.30   6364.00    0.6436     50   3182   .0157     0.1253  
                  11   -1020.60   3050.00    0.6654     20   1525   .0131     0.1046  
                  12     -52.50   1540.00    0.9659     12    770   .0156     0.1243  
                  13    -142.00    218.00    0.3486      1    109   .0092     0.0732  
                  14      12.20     84.00    1.1452      1     42   .0238     0.1899  
                  15      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  16      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  17      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  18      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  19      -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000     0.0000




code:
Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2007\pl_profile.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals  204138.40 203123.60 201073.70
     Bet           -265444.00-265444.00-265444.00
     Gain           -61305.60 -62320.40 -64370.30

     Wins               15823     31472     46556
     Plays             132722    132722    132722
     PCT                .1192     .2371     .3508

     ROI               0.7690    0.7652    0.7575
     Avg Mut            12.90      6.45      4.32


     By: Odds Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
                   1   -5829.40  32772.00    0.8221   5477  16386   .3342     2.8037  
                   2   -5251.90  31176.00    0.8315   3262  15588   .2093     1.7553  
                   3   -6186.90  31176.00    0.8015   2317  15588   .1486     1.2468  
                   4   -6614.30  31104.00    0.7873   1672  15552   .1075     0.9018  
                   5   -6196.10  30940.00    0.7997   1212  15470   .0783     0.6572  
                   6   -7540.00  29556.00    0.7449    800  14778   .0541     0.4541  
                   7   -6899.90  25540.00    0.7298    502  12770   .0393     0.3297  
                   8   -5253.60  20038.00    0.7378    292  10019   .0291     0.2445  
                   9   -3262.00  14244.00    0.7710    169   7122   .0237     0.1990  
                  10   -2435.70   9486.00    0.7432     85   4743   .0179     0.1503  
                  11   -2982.20   5464.00    0.4542     27   2732   .0099     0.0829  
                  12   -2066.30   3058.00    0.3243      7   1529   .0046     0.0384  
                  13    -473.30    576.00    0.1783      1    288   .0035     0.0291  
                  14    -298.00    298.00    0.0000      0    149   .0000     0.0000  
                  15      -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000     0.0000  
                  16      -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000     0.0000  
                  17      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  18      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  19      -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000     0.0000




code:
Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2008\pl_profile.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals  250798.00 247974.20 246405.60
     Bet           -324886.00-324886.00-324886.00
     Gain           -74088.00 -76911.80 -78480.40

     Wins               19552     38894     57544
     Plays             162443    162443    162443
     PCT                .1204     .2394     .3542

     ROI               0.7720    0.7633    0.7584
     Avg Mut            12.83      6.38      4.28


     By: Odds Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
                   1   -6834.30  40542.00    0.8314   6834  20271   .3371     2.8010  
                   2   -7242.80  38496.00    0.8119   3952  19248   .2053     1.7059  
                   3   -7764.80  38390.00    0.7977   2824  19195   .1471     1.2223  
                   4   -7792.30  38472.00    0.7975   2109  19236   .1096     0.9109  
                   5   -7745.90  38316.00    0.7978   1532  19158   .0800     0.6644  
                   6   -7856.10  36460.00    0.7845   1029  18230   .0564     0.4690  
                   7   -8486.80  31172.00    0.7277    600  15586   .0385     0.3198  
                   8   -5570.10  24190.00    0.7697    360  12095   .0298     0.2473  
                   9   -6094.20  17052.00    0.6426    172   8526   .0202     0.1676  
                  10   -3322.00  11408.00    0.7088     94   5704   .0165     0.1369  
                  11   -3201.40   6260.00    0.4886     29   3130   .0093     0.0770  
                  12   -1587.20   3388.00    0.5315     15   1694   .0089     0.0736  
                  13    -431.10    506.00    0.1480      1    253   .0040     0.0328  
                  14    -147.00    222.00    0.3378      1    111   .0090     0.0748  
                  15      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  16      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  17      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  18      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  19      -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000     0.0000



code:
 Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2009\pl_profile.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals   55194.30  55682.50  55296.40
     Bet            -73912.00 -73912.00 -73912.00
     Gain           -18717.70 -18229.50 -18615.60

     Wins                4373      8715     12864
     Plays              36956     36956     36956
     PCT                .1183     .2358     .3481

     ROI               0.7468    0.7534    0.7481
     Avg Mut            12.62      6.39      4.30


     By: Odds Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct     Impact
                   1   -1236.50   9054.00    0.8634   1615   4527   .3567     3.0149  
                   2   -1586.60   8618.00    0.8159    883   4309   .2049     1.7318  
                   3   -2116.30   8644.00    0.7552    613   4322   .1418     1.1986  
                   4   -2103.00   8570.00    0.7546    437   4285   .1020     0.8619  
                   5   -1976.70   8572.00    0.7694    327   4286   .0763     0.6448  
                   6   -2223.60   8220.00    0.7295    217   4110   .0528     0.4462  
                   7   -2073.20   7138.00    0.7096    134   3569   .0375     0.3173  
                   8   -1667.00   5682.00    0.7066     78   2841   .0275     0.2320  
                   9   -1160.70   4122.00    0.7184     43   2061   .0209     0.1763  
                  10    -776.90   2854.00    0.7278     20   1427   .0140     0.1184  
                  11   -1108.60   1586.00    0.3010      5    793   .0063     0.0533  
                  12    -652.60    816.00    0.2002      1    408   .0025     0.0207  
                  13     -30.00     30.00    0.0000      0     15   .0000     0.0000  
                  14      -6.00      6.00    0.0000      0      3   .0000     0.0000  
                  15       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  16       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  17       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  18       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  19       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000



Sure enough a huge percentage of winning favourites and ROI is up substantially as well. I guess this means that those of us that like to bet against favourites should be rewarded as this normalizes over the course of the year.

Just found the data interesting.

Terry

~Edited by: TPW  on:  3/8/2009  at:  10:40:43 PM~

Reply
Reply
Copyright © 2018 JCapper Software              back to the JCapper Message Board              www.JCapper.com