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| By | The 2 or the 6 | |
| jager fury 2/16/2009 6:40:30 PM | and I chose the 6 in my pick 3 @ AQU R3 today. Jcapper put me on to the first two horses at AQU this morning, and gave me three horses to choose from in the 3rd. I made my play. $18 was the limit on a pick 3 wager. Just wanted to let off some steam letting it get away. The positive is I finally walked away instead of chasing that $400 I believed I was going to win. Spent $18 on AQU today, and was in the running for a $400 payoff with the post time favorite. Didn't get it this time, but...
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| dvlander 2/16/2009 8:54:06 PM | I also had that 6 horse in AQU 3 on a win bet - just caught at the wire. Then , I had the 3 in the 6th at AQU - just caught at the wire. Finally I had 2 units (for 2 UDM's) on the 9 in the 6th at PHA. Had a 4-length lead going into the stretch and the horse was looking pretty strong but you guessed it, he just got caught at the wire. I was home today and actually watched a few races which I rarely have time to do. Those were three of the first four that I watched. Needless to say, it was not a good day but that's horse racing. You can only hope that these things even out over time. I know redboarding is discussing your winning selections after the race is run. What the term for talking about you tough losses after the fact? Waterboarding? (for the tears in my eyes)? Dale
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| jager fury 2/16/2009 10:53:09 PM | I think waterboarding is a very apt term for it. Good luck next time out.
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| TPW 2/17/2009 7:39:25 AM | Jager/Dale, Misery loves company. I had a $5 Pick 3 (total investment was $50) on Run With The Lark in Aqueduct's 3rd. Pick 3 potential was $2,000 for me. Due to the size of the payout I covered for $100 on the bottom of Coyoteshighestcall and Prince of Iron. Did not like Lord Kipling as I thought he was more suited to go farther. Of course, missed the Pick 3 and the exacta as Run With The Lark was wide throughout and finished 3rd. Fast forward to race 6, had Griffen Avenue singled on the back end of a Pick 3 ($60 invested). 12-1 morning line, opens up at 5-2. I think the horse was getting action on the perceived inside speed bias. After a scratch the Pick 3 was paying $200/$1 and I had a $10, for a potential payout again of $2000. Undaunted, I again covered a $200 exacta with the favourite (Navedano) and also bet $150 to win on both Gatto Nero and See Me. Was hoping to be proved correct as Griffen Avenue led every step except the last one. Did have the exacta for $1450 (we get the extra dime on the rounding here in Canada). I quit for the day after that race as it put me solidly in the black. Wasn't easy though. I have had a tough start to the year and I know I cashed, but when you have the opportunity to hit a nice score (or two) you want to capitalize to the fullest. I wasn't able to do that. Terry
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| ryesteve 2/17/2009 9:36:33 AM | Add me to the Griffen Avenue whine-wagon. Any other year on the Aqueduct inner, this is the kind of horse that wins by 5.
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| jager fury 2/17/2009 10:50:48 AM | We all ran a track weight report recently highlighting a speed tiring track, right? All my front running UDM's are now red flag UDM's this years meet for me. Fortunately I was in the process of retooling everything with the use of the Key Factors Report, By Trainer, By Rider. The new features which Jeff has put in the program. These additions have led to huge time savings at the R/D screen.
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| ryesteve 2/17/2009 11:50:53 AM | Still, the horse still only lost by a half inch, so it's hard to second-guess it THAT much...
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| jeff 2/17/2009 12:16:51 PM | Last night (Mon 2/16/09) MNR R4 Several of my UDMs are pointing out the #8 TRAVELEZE. Race #3 goes off and I watch without betting. During the running of the race my phone rings. Knowing that I have at least 20 mtp for R4 I answer. It's a "friend" of mine who lives in Phoenix and she's telling me that both Snowbowl and Sunrise are getting hammered snow-wise and we should go skiing. Those 20 minutes go by in a blink and they're loading for R4. I frantically key in a hefty WP along with a tiered exacta part wheel and hit the submit button just as I hear Peter Berry say "They're off!" The interface gives me a transmitting wagers message and then displays the bets for that race in red - indicating that they aren't accepted because they weren't received before the race went off. TRAVELEZE pays $27.20 to win by getting up at the wire over BEAU WEEBLE at 70-1 who has AFR 1 and WoBrill 1. I shake my head in disgust when the $2 exacta comes back $771.40. She senses something must be wrong and says "You're not very talkative are you? Don't you want to go skiing with me?" How do you explain to a non horseplayer that picking up the phone and getting distracted at the wrong time just cost you more than a week in Aspen would? -jp .
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| TPW 2/17/2009 7:12:45 PM | This thread is very therapeutic. We all think that only these things happen to us. Terry
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| JackB 2/17/2009 11:28:38 PM | Jeff, go skiing and let her make it up to you at say, even money????
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| jager fury 2/18/2009 6:40:49 PM | Jeff; Aaaannny time you plan on skiing Aspen, you can crash at my pad for free...
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| jager fury 2/18/2009 6:45:35 PM | ...continuing the therapy value of the thread; I have passed on two horses with the same UDM selections because the price looked too good. Mind you, I have just started to create, in my opinion, UDM's which find good plays. They are not the usual reliable chalk which never seem to make me any money. Very scary to trust that single, deadly UDM on a horse that others are letting go in the pools. After you watch your horses pay $12.00-$26.00 you spent three weeks learning to uncover, well, I guess you come around.
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| JustRalph 2/18/2009 11:58:16 PM | "Very scary to trust that single, deadly UDM on a horse that others are letting go in the pools. After you watch your horses pay $12.00-$26.00 you spent three weeks learning to uncover, well, I guess you come around." I went through this phase for a while too. Sometimes it is tough.......easier to add these types to pik3 and DD tickets though. I am learning to take the 10 and 12 dollar horses more often in the WP pools. Doing this very well at AQU on the inner. I have a few UDM's that are killing on the Inner. But the crowd has caught up fast to the change in the track this year
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| jager fury 2/25/2009 8:27:38 PM | Sitting in a coffee shop this weekend, I patiently explained to my friend why you should always bet your 8-1 horse to win. He won, but I didn't cash. I had decided I would much prefer a far juicier payout and played an exacta. I was walking out a loser. And it was because I let my selection go across the wire without my money on his nose. Finished up AQU today a winner. Best play of the day was to sit on my hands after my early P3 hit. The chalk kept coming in except for the two maiden races. Not much money to be had. Reviewing my first monthly totals for February. First analysis is way to many plays. I make to many bets. Bankroll erosion is a major problem, the program seems to be working fine.
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| jeff 3/8/2009 6:25:00 AM | Fri 3/6/09 TAM R5 @1M Turf The #4 Immortal Wink is my UPR 1 horse - gets blocked behind horses on the turn and has to wait for room. Gets clear at the top of the stretch and is getting to the winner but runs out of real estate and finishes 2nd at 47-1. With a clean trip (how do you handicap that in advance?) I have to think there's a legit chance he wins. Backed my opinion by betting WP, used the horse as a single in the Pick3, and had the horse in a couple of smallish exacta boxes but didn't have my horse underneath the 15-1 winner. Still, feeling pretty good about the outcome... $40.80 place mutuels have a way of making an otherwise bad beat turn out ok... And then this morning I get an email from a friend of mine who posts at PA and who helped get HANA kick started... He tells me he hit the tri in this race (it paid $14k for $2) and got paid for having 3 of 4 in the super several times... although his super consolations were of the 10 cent variety... but it still paid surprisingly well ($13k for $1) for 3 of 4 because the odds for the top 4 were: 15-1, 47-1, 65-1, and 12-1... He cashed for $19k on this race. His strength? He's pretty sharp when it comes to identifying chaotic races and backing his opinion of such races when he feels an overbet favorite will not hit the board. Fri 3/6/09 TAM R5 @1M Turf If you're looking for a race that fits the description of a potential value race - this would be one of them. -jp .
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| jager fury 3/8/2009 9:38:14 PM | funny, just decided to check up on this post. I had my Feb. total added up and wanted to post it. Finished -$20.80 for the month. Not bad, because I had three spastic days accounting for over $600.00 in losses. Tracks played are TAM, TUP, and AQU. Today I played all three cards, but quit after I was up $58.00. So my last plays were in AQU4, and TAM4. The betting strategy I am trying to employ is one where if I find myself fortunate to have double my money at any time it is time to close up shop for the day. The other half of the strategy is to close up shop after I've logged $56-$86 in losses. Making $9-$18 plays is the betting unit I am working within. This is used to construct P3's, Doubles, Win bets as the situation warrents. This means I can be done for the day real quick if I am not careful with my initial plays. I try to run as much of my handle through PTC, but TwinSpires sees a fair amount of bankroll because of the video and tracks I follow. That's it, that is as far as I have developed the horseplaying routine. Jcapper is used for everything else. grind the data, grind the data, grind the data. Find hot horses with good jocks and trainer intents.
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