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| By | Tampa Opening Day Dec 08 | |
| JustRalph 12/15/2008 1:49:11 AM | I was away from the computer playing poker the last few days......looks like I picked the wrong weekend to take off from playing the ponies. I am updating files and databases tonight.....and find this. GAME N LAUGHIN OPTIM_Pnts1 MLOR_HiLite_TOP_AFR Cpace1_pfit1 AFR_TOP_3 L3_2nd JPR_Rating_1 *Pace1* **Points10+ ***QRating*** ****Ped_Rating Odds 29.70-1 WON 61.40 19.60 9.60 EXA 314.60 Anybody catch this 30-1 shot on Tampa's first card of the season? Race 10 Lightning City Stakes. This is what it looked like on my HTML report (dat file) Damn, I should have stayed home..........
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| jeff 12/15/2008 3:17:51 AM | I kind of made a nice little score on that one Ralph. In addition to the presence of "Business UDMs" of the type outlined in Finding An Edge (similar to what you're pointing out) the horse was also flagged by some "Layering UDMs" I use as ++confidence builders. Specifically: 1. A rider UDM - Dean Butler has some talent when it comes to judging pace and getting overlooked CPace horses home on top in sprint races. 2. A track surface UDM - based on a track profile I kept for the prior TAM meet where E and EP horses won more than their fair share of turf sprints. UDMs converging on the same horse from many different directions always gets my attention. -jp .
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| Jens 12/15/2008 11:47:38 AM | Ralph- I wish you wouldn't have reminded me of last Saturday. I'm still in need of therapy to recover from what happened on the last four races at Aqueduct that day. Race six started with a solid upr1 udm that hit at 20-1, race 7 went to the J1 horse at 65-1!!!!!!!!! Hopefully some jcapper played it straight. At this point I'm already gagging because, not only did I just finish a 2 out of 3 pick 3 but I didn't play the double. The good news (I hoped) was that I had a $3660 pick3 live to another solid upr1 udm as well as the pick 4 live to that same horse plus two additional udm horses in the closing race. Unfortunately I hoped wrong. My udm horse in the 8th got caught late and ran a close second. The horse that won was another J1. Sometimes I play too tight for my own good. To add insult to injury my Wobrill udm horse took the lead late in the final race and then got caught as well for another close 2nd. After being edged out by a 3-1 horse over my 8-1 horse in the 8th and then being edged out by a 5-1 horse over my 12-1 horse in the 9th the pick 4 still paid over $165,000!!!!! Anyhow, I'm off to see my therapist. Hope some jcapper hit that 65-1 shot. ~Edited by: Jens on: 12/15/2008 at: 11:47:38 AM~
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