Database Handicapping Software- JCapper

JCapper Message Board

          General Discussion
                      -- Workload

Home Register
Log In
By Workload
jeff
8/14/2008
12:48:21 AM		I posted this at the PA site. On the surface it's kind of general not very advanced material - but I think the subject deserves serious consideration. There's a reason I decided to write it up and post it which I'll get to in a minute.

quote:
Workload

How many tracks can the player effectively "handle" (no pun intended) at one time?

Are you better off playing one track? The downside is fewer plays. But you should be able to keep up with current scratches and changes. And that means you should have an easier time when it comes to playing mistake free.

Or are you better off playing many tracks? The obvious upside is lots of plays. The downside is that it will be more difficult to keep up with scratches and changes. And when several races you want to play go off on top of each other - increasing the likelihood of getting shut out - playing mistake free suddenly becomes a lot more difficult.

A few things to consider:

1. Profit equals edge times handle.

2. Fewer plays means less handle. Thus, fewer plays means less total profit at the end of a season.

3. Lots of plays means more handle. Therefore, a great number of plays translates into greater profits over the course of a season - provided the player does in fact have an edge.

Also, there's another effect going on. It's called the law of large numbers. Simply put: The greater the number of plays made with an edge, the greater the likelihood of generating a profit.

4. But it's not always easy. Mistakes eradicate edge. Too many mistakes multiplied across a large number of plays can translate into losses over the course of a season instead of profits.

Is there a right answer when it comes to deciding how much workload to bear?

My belief is that somehow a balance must be struck. The player has to weigh the number of plays vs. mistakes and its effect on edge and arrive at a workload that is... well, workable.



For some this next part is going to come off as a redboard... so be it.

Wed 8/13/08 R4 ELP - Wild Sign wired his field and paid $20.80 to win.

Horse was flagged by several of my own UDMs and was highlighted on my HTML Report and was well above my own target value cutoff points in the Live Play Module.

Horse was also CPace1/JPR4 and highlighted on my HTML Report before scratches.

Still, this horse was not as easy a horse to get as I'm making it sound.

I strictly play horses flagged by my own UDMs. It's my game plan. And above all else I pride myself on maintaining the discipline to stick to my own game plan.

I want to point out that pre scratches I had no UDMs pointing at this horse at all.

When I first looked at the race in the live play module, I had a couple of UDMs pointing at the #7 horse Kandinsky but quickly decided to pass because of low odds/no value and an S run style that was contrary to my ELP 5f track profile.

I minimized the Live Play Module and continued working away on a piece of code for the next program update.

My Live Play Module "dinged." I knew that a late scratch had been announced. I kept working away on the code snippet. A few minutes later I pulled up the Live Play Module and saw that there was about 2 mtp.

Quickly X-ed out of the Live Play Module and re-ran a full Calc Races. Clicked OK and brought up the Live Play Module again.

Once the Live Play Module was up I saw 5 UDMs pointing out Wild Sign - brightly highlighted - and well above my target value cutoffs.

With the scratch he was now JPR2 and UPR1 for me instead of JPR4 and UPR3. My UDMs liked him now. In fact, after scratches the horse made the HTML Report look just like one of those examples straight out of the Reading the Reports Help Doc.

Got my bet in just as the horses started loading.

The point I'm trying to make here is that every year I always catch (and miss) a couple dozen overlays because of circumstances exactly like this.

I had just 3 tracks loaded when this happened. Had I been following 7 or 8 tracks (or not lucked out and left the Live Play Module pointed at Ellis) I have no doubt I would have whiffed on this one.

Workload matters.


-jp

.





~Edited by: jeff  on:  8/14/2008  at:  12:48:21 AM~

Reply
Reply
Copyright © 2018 JCapper Software              back to the JCapper Message Board              www.JCapper.com