|
JCapper Message Board General Discussion
|
| Home |
Register
Log In |
| By | New Factors in JCapper2008 | |
| jeff 4/10/2008 6:24:56 PM | It's starting to look like today is the day. The initial version of JCapper2008 should be available for download sometime later today.
I thought it might be a good idea to start a thread discussing some of the new factors. I'll start with the JCapper Compound Pace Array and come back and post more later as time allows. The JCapper Compound Pace Array One of the significant additions to JCapper2008 is the Compound Pace Array. The Compound Pace Array contains 11 new factors which are detailed below. All of the Compound Pace Array factors appear in the factors drop downs of both the UDM Wizard and the Impact Values Table Wizard. All of them are fully "grabbable" in both UDMs and UPR. I should also point out that "grabbable in UPR" means grabbable when creating any of the five new UPR UserFactors that are also part of JCapper2008. It's very possible that you are completely satisfied with your current handicapping process and results. Maybe you don't want to look at new numbers. I know that describeds ME from time to time. Along those lines I've also added a checkbox to the System Definitions Screen. When the Enable Compound Pace Array Checkbox is checked, numbers for the Compound Pace Array factors for each horse are displayed on the HTML Report. Before diving into a detailed explanation for each of the ten new Compound Pace Array factors I'd like to talk a little bit about how they best might be used. The Compound Pace Array was designed to give the JCapper user a serious set of tools for the purpose of understanding (and using that understanding in your handicapping) the demands that individual surfaces and distances place on the horses you bet on. In Understanding Track Weight I wrote about two extremes of track weight: BEL 2007 which was speed favoring and APX which was speed tiring. This past winter has seen another pair of extremes: AQU which has been so wonderfully speed favoring - and TPX where the surface has been consistently stopping speedsters in their tracks at any distance 6f and longer. Players making the effort to keep track profiles and decision models will always find themselves in a much better position to gain an edge over the crowd than those who don't do this. Perhaps that's as it should be. The Compound Pace Array was designed as a tool set for those willing to do the work. And while factor constraints for factors found in the Compound Pace Array might benefit many of your existing UDMs, my personal opinion is that players likely to derive the most benefit from the Compound Pace Array are those whose primary use of it becomes centered around understanding the demands that individual surfaces and distances place on the horses. All of the factors in the array are compound numbers. Each is created by a very unique algorithm that evaluates each horse's Bris Pace Figures (early and late) from selected pacelines. Here is a description of the factors in the array: CompoundE1 CompoundE1 is a measurement of early speed - ability from the starting gate to the first point of call - the opening quarter mile in sprint races and the opening half mile in route races. CompoundE1 is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected E1 pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. CompoundE2 CompoundE2 is a measurement of early speed - ability from the starting gate to the second point of call - the opening half mile in sprint races and the opening 3/4 mile in route races. CompoundE2 is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected E2 pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. CompoundTT CompoundTT is a measurement of early speed - the ability to accelerate from the first call to the second call. CompoundTT is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected E1 and E2 pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. It is calculated as follows: CompoundTT = (2 * CompoundE2) - CompoundE1 CompoundLate CompoundLate is a measurement of late speed - ability from the the second point of call to the finish line. CompoundLate is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected Late pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. CompoundLateHO Some races (most graded stakes races for example) have several horses in the field capable of running very strong late pace numbers. Other races (Mdn claiming races for example) have very few horses capable of finishing strongly. The "HO" in CompoundLateHO means Highest Other. What is a highest other? Within the context of looking at the current horse, CompoundLateHO is the highest CompoundLate in the race belonging to another horse. If the current horse has the top CompoundLate in the race, then the CompoundLateHO will belong to the second best CompoundLate horse in the race. If the current horse does not have the best CompoundLate in the race, then the CompoundLateHO will belong to the top CompoundLate horse in the field. Combined with CompoundLate rank, numeric value, and gap, CompoundLateHO gives you yet another way of looking at the dynamics of the race - and writing a UDM to take advantage of that race dynamic. CompoundPctE CompoundPctE is a measurement of running style/energy distribution. CompoundPctE is very similar to, but differs slightly from PctE. The original PctE is arrived at by averaging pace figures taken from every running line, while CompoundPctE is arrived at using pace figures from selected running lines only. TE = CompoundE2 + CompoundLate CompoundPctE = (CompoundE2 x 100) / TE CompoundPctM CompoundPctM is a measurement of running style/energy distribution. CompoundPctM is calculated as follows: TE = CompoundE1 + CompoundE2 + CompoundLate CompoundPctM = ((CompoundE1 + CompoundE2 ) x 100) / TE CompoundPctM is similar in nature to, but slightly different from CompoundPctE. CompoundPctM can give you a slightly different perspective than CompoundPctE when evaluating surface/distance requirements and track biases and when creating track profiles. CompoundSP CompoundSP is a measurement that combines both early and late pace. It differs from the original SP found in JCapper. The original SP is based on the horse's single strongest running line. CompoundSP is based on CompoundE2 and CompoundLate. It is calculated as follows: CompoundSP = (CompoundE2 + CompoundLate) / 2 CompoundAP CompoundAP is a measurement of average pace. It is based on CompoundE2, CompoundLate, and CompoundSP. It is calculated as follows: dblCompAP = (CompoundE2 + CompoundSP ) / 2 LateSlant LateSlant is a last line speed figure where finishing ability is emphasisized. LateSlant is designed to give you a way to emphasize last line late speed in UPR and UDMs. You may find it useful at certain distances, on certain turf courses, and certain artificial surfaces. CompoundPaceFit CompoundPaceFit is a number (on a scale of 0-100) that represents favorable vs unfavorable pace scenarios within a race. The higher the number the more favorable the pace matchup is for a given horse in today's race. The lower the number the more the horse is up against it pace-wise today. CompoundPaceFit is not a magic bullet - even though at times it may look like it should be. Sometimes riders assigned horses with pace advantages over their fields decide (or are given instructions by trainers) to ride the horse in a way that destroys the advantage. But overall, and especially after you've spent some time at the Data Window evaluating it, I think you will find CompoundPaceFit to be a VERY NICE addition to the JCapper factor set. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 4/10/2008 at: 12:22:34 PM~
| |
| jeff 4/10/2008 12:35:37 PM | Breeding - The Immediate Family. JCapper2008 now provides the user the ability to require (by name) the following members of a horse's immediate family when writing UDMs: Sire - the horse's father. Sire's Sire - the Sire's father. Dam - the horse's mother. Dam's Sire - the Dam's father. Each of these categories are now available in the factors drop down of the UDM Wizard. -jp .
| |
| ryesteve 4/10/2008 12:46:08 PM | Wow, I'm excited! Can't wait to start playing with these. Is a playlist layout update on the way?
| |
| freddie 4/10/2008 1:21:06 PM | Jeff EXTRAORDINARY!!!!! LIGHT YEARS AHEAD OF ANY PROGRAM AVAILABLE TODAY!!! FREDDIE
| |
| jeff 4/10/2008 2:11:48 PM | Yes, it may take me a few days to get there - but I will be posting the data structure for both the daily export file and the PlayList file as they exist in JCapper2008. -jp .
| |
| jeff 4/10/2008 2:31:06 PM | Continuing on... Userfactors JCapper2008 includes five new UPR Userfactors. All five are available in the factors drop down of the UDM Wizard. Q. What are they? A. They are UPR-like factors that YOU create. Q. How do you create them? A. You create them using the ImpactValues Table Wizard just like you would if you were creating UPR. Q. What do you use for a GroupName? A. If you are creating USERFACTOR1 you would use USERFACTOR1 as your GroupName. If you are creating USERFACTOR2 you would use USERFACTOR2 as your GroupName... and so on up to USERFACTOR5. Q. What factors can I use when I create a USERFACTOR? A. I've tried to make this as easy as possible. All of the valid factors appear in the IVTable Wizard's factors drop down. There are some rules though. The Userfactors build upon each other. You can use an existing Userfactors when you create a new Userfactor. For example, when you are creating Userfactor5 you can use Userfactors 1-4. But it you are creating Userfactor1, you can not use Userfactor2 (or higher) because it doesn't exist yet. Make sense? Q. Can I make my Userfactors visible on my HTML Report? A. Yes. There is a box to enable this on the System Definitions Screen. This means that if there's a factor in the program not displayed on the HTML Report (BF for example) that you'd like to have displayed - you can do so by creating a Userfactor using BF with a translate behavior - and that Userfactor simply becomes BF - and if the box on the Sys Defs Screen is checked to display Userfactos - you'll see BF displayed on your HTML Report. That's just one possible way to use Userfactors. If you want to develop multiple compound UPRs - go to it. It's really up to you. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 4/10/2008 at: 2:31:06 PM~
| |
| jeff 4/10/2008 2:52:04 PM | The Impact Values Table Wizard The IVTable Wizard in JCapper2008 contains several improvements over the wizard in JCapper2007. First, all of the valid factors now appear in a factors drop down. So you no longer have to type out factor names (and risk misspelling them.) Just select a factor from the drop down (or drag n drop it to the factor name textbox) and the correct factor name automatically appears in the factor name textbox. The 2008 Wizard also contains logic that prevents you from making certain bonehead mistakes... like trying to user a non existent Userfactor when creating a new Userfactor. The 2008 Wizard also includes a Reporting Module - meaning that you can now run reports that let you SEE what's actually in your UPR. -jp .
| |
| jeff 4/10/2008 6:29:35 PM | Rebuilding From Scratch Q. After I install JCapper2008, will I need to Rebuild my Databases From Scratch? A. Yes. Q. What about Quick Index Files? A. Yes. You'll need to re-do those too. Sorry. There just isn't a way around this. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 4/10/2008 at: 6:29:35 PM~
| |
| mikejlb 4/10/2008 8:17:14 PM | Some really nice changes, Jeff. I sure made a good investment when I bought this program!
| |
| JimG 4/12/2008 2:53:48 PM | Jeff, You outdid yourself this time. I am sure there are many new items for the researchers. That's great. However, I am delighted to see you did not forget the html users. The UF's are sweet for displaying factors I wanted to display. Thank you, thank you! I am also thilled you added an option for displaying the new compound ratings. You did a great job on this upgrade. Jim
| |
| Cole 4/13/2008 6:43:45 AM | Jeff, Great Job on the update. I love the Compounded Pace Factors and can't wait to get started with them. Thanks Jeff, Bill
| |
| Betchatoo 4/13/2008 3:36:48 PM | Jeff: I'm not sure how I'm missing them but I'm not seeing the compound factors in my UDM dropdown list
| |
| jeff 4/13/2008 5:42:17 PM | Scott... I sent you an email a few minutes ago asking you to give me a call when you get the chance. Easier for me to talk you through it than to post about it. -jp .
|
| Reply |
|
Copyright © 2018 JCapper Software back to the JCapper Message Board www.JCapper.com |