I wanted to post some of my own results for the newly released BettorsToteProb algorithm. I developed it using my own UPR as one of the inputs.
I'm curious about the BettorsToteProb numbers of others - both Bris and TSN users. Did you make a significant effort developing a UPR of your own? If so, are your numbers similar to mine?
Feel free to join in... or email numbers to me if don't feel comfortable making them public.
The following results are from my calendar year 2007 database using Bris data - all races at all tracks everywhere:
First, post time favorites broken out by BettorsToteProb:
query start: 7/22/2008 9:34:03 PM
query end: 7/22/2008 9:34:42 PM
elapsed time: 39 seconds
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Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\2007\pl_Favorites_1.txt
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Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 47457.30 49986.80 50293.20
Bet -57852.00 -57852.00 -57852.00
Gain -10394.70 -7865.20 -7558.80
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Wins 9965 15889 19509
Plays 28926 28926 28926
PCT .3445 .5493 .6744
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ROI 0.8203 0.8640 0.8693
Avg Mut 4.76 3.15 2.58
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By: BettorsToteProb
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>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.05 0.10 -36.80 56.00 0.3429 2 28 .0714 0.2073
0.10 0.15 -11.40 40.00 0.7150 3 20 .1500 0.4354
0.15 0.20 -563.60 2216.00 0.7457 216 1108 .1949 0.5659
0.20 0.25 -2468.90 9262.00 0.7334 1034 4631 .2233 0.6481
0.25 0.30 -2018.60 10098.00 0.8001 1381 5049 .2735 0.7940
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0.30 0.35 -1896.30 12610.00 0.8496 2049 6305 .3250 0.9433
0.35 0.40 -1662.10 9964.00 0.8332 1855 4982 .3723 1.0808
0.40 0.45 -798.30 5480.00 0.8543 1194 2740 .4358 1.2649
0.45 0.50 -367.90 2790.00 0.8681 653 1395 .4681 1.3588
0.50 0.55 -359.40 2740.00 0.8688 724 1370 .5285 1.5340
0.55 0.60 -38.60 272.00 0.8581 75 136 .5515 1.6008
0.60 0.65 -70.20 1062.00 0.9339 339 531 .6384 1.8532
0.65 0.70 -38.00 480.00 0.9208 159 240 .6625 1.9231
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0.70 0.75 -69.10 622.00 0.8889 211 311 .6785 1.9694
0.75 0.80 7.20 78.00 1.0923 34 39 .8718 2.5306
0.80 0.85 0.60 6.00 1.1000 3 3 1.0000 2.9028
0.85 0.90 -2.30 42.00 0.9452 18 21 .8571 2.4881
0.90 999999.00 -1.00 34.00 0.9706 15 17 .8824 2.5613
Hard for me to tell because of the small sample sizes at both ends of the spectrum... I'll probably give it some fine tuning when the algorithm says probability is over 70 pct and less than 15 pct. But otherwise it's looking pretty much dead nuts accurate.
Check out what happens with post time favorites when BettorsToteProb is under 30 pct:
By: BettorsToteProb
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>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.05 0.10 -36.80 56.00 0.3429 2 28 .0714 0.2073
0.10 0.15 -11.40 40.00 0.7150 3 20 .1500 0.4354
0.15 0.20 -563.60 2216.00 0.7457 216 1108 .1949 0.5659
0.20 0.25 -2468.90 9262.00 0.7334 1034 4631 .2233 0.6481
0.25 0.30 -2018.60 10098.00 0.8001 1381 5049 .2735 0.7940
Here's what the Vulnerable Favorites algorithm flagged during the same time period:
By: Vulnerable Favorite
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VFav Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -5277.20 37814.00 0.8604 7217 18907 .3817 1.1080 Legit
1 -5117.50 20038.00 0.7446 2748 10019 .2743 0.7962 Vulnerable
Now here are Vulnerable Favorites broken out by BettorsToteProb:
By: BettorsToteProb
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>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.05 0.10 -30.80 50.00 0.3840 2 25 .0800 0.2917
0.10 0.15 -11.40 40.00 0.7150 3 20 .1500 0.5469
0.15 0.20 -534.30 1960.00 0.7274 187 980 .1908 0.6957
0.20 0.25 -1889.50 6652.00 0.7160 740 3326 .2225 0.8112
0.25 0.30 -1122.60 4914.00 0.7716 683 2457 .2780 1.0135
0.30 0.35 -737.80 3556.00 0.7925 586 1778 .3296 1.2016
0.35 0.40 -490.50 1846.00 0.7343 333 923 .3608 1.3154
0.40 0.45 -198.60 616.00 0.6776 116 308 .3766 1.3731
0.45 0.50 -50.50 160.00 0.6844 33 80 .4125 1.5039
0.50 0.55 -38.40 164.00 0.7659 41 82 .5000 1.8230
0.55 0.60 -7.20 16.00 0.5500 3 8 .3750 1.3672
0.60 0.65 -2.60 40.00 0.9350 13 20 .6500 2.3699
0.65 0.70 1.40 12.00 1.1167 5 6 .8333 3.0383
0.70 0.75 -3.30 8.00 0.5875 2 4 .5000 1.8230
0.75 0.80 0.60 2.00 1.3000 1 1 1.0000 3.6459
0.80 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.85 0.90 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
0.90 999999.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
The Vulnerable Favorites algorithm has a facet to it where it points out overbet favorites. Note that even though the win rates for some of these Vulnerable Favorites were quite high, the flat win bet roi is much lower than the roi of legit favorites. And for the most part, BettorsToteProb accurately assessed Vulnerable Favorites too.
To be continued....
-jp
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~Edited by: jeff on: 7/23/2008 at: 2:22:58 AM~
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