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| By | All button Data Window query - What does flat win bet roi really measure? | |
| jeff 9/8/2013 12:40:15 PM | Q. Is the ROI result of a Starter History ALL button data query for a specific track a good measure of the true track take and breakage? Can I assume that when I see .78 at one track and .74 at another track the first one has more favorable expenses. I try to match them up with the Take list on the HANA report but it seems that other costs are harder to find out and you cannot base things on Take alone. A. No. In my opinion ALL button roi at an individual track is more indicative of bomb potential than anything else. There are a number of factors capable of shaping this: field size, depth of inherent contention or makeup of the fields put together by the racing secretary, in some cases utter dominance by a handful of trainers over the others, and in some cases track surface biases (both early-late and/or inside-outside path) at the individual track. But the end result is this: When the number of longshots getting to the winner's circle is greater than normal: ALL button Data Window query results will show flat win bet roi that exceeds a normal expectation based on takeout alone. Conversely, when favorites dominate the winner's circle: ALL button Data Window query results will show flat win bet roi lower than normal expectation based on takeout alone. Think of it this way: An ALL button Data Window query for all tracks everywhere reveals that flat win bet roi is approximately 0.75. Consider that as a baseline. Tracks where flat win bet roi exceeds the baseline THAT ALSO HAVE DECENT POOL SIZE - at least in my opinion - are for the most part more playable than tracks where flat win bet roi is lower than the baseline. -jp .
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