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| By | Anybody get this one at Saratoga on Saturday? | |
| JustRalph 8/3/2013 11:34:26 PM | I was up late last night looking at PP's and wasn't smart enough to bet it...........had a winning day, but missing this one....hurts! Saturday Aug 3rd Race 9 De La Rose Stakes 100k on the inner turf 4 +ASSATEAGUE JPR_RATING_2 Odds 23.30-1 WON 48.60 17.00 6.80 EXA 190.50 .1970(2) # SAEZ LUIS MATZ MICHAEL R
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| Caveat 8/4/2013 7:59:36 AM | JR... I guess you have tweaked your JPR .. I have a JPR = 4 and UPR = 7 I would never get that combo in my UDM's Did you tweak it? Mike ~Edited by: Caveat on: 8/4/2013 at: 7:59:36 AM~
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| Charlie James 8/4/2013 11:31:29 AM | I get JPR4 using an HDW file -- maybe the difference is Ralph using a Brisnet file? IMO, horse was VERY live using an HDW file though. :) 1. The race: From race summary: RV of 50, Field Size of 8, and PaceIndex of 67. All within my sweet spot. Very early on I restricted the races on my html report to only those within my sweet spot. The idea was to avoid wasting time on races that tend to offer little or no value; for example 5 and 6 horse fields. 2. The horse: Bold/Highlight as dominant form in race summary. Early Consensus 2 in race summary. 94 HDW Pscore -- tops in the race. Then there's the more obvious PRating1, Alchemy2, OptPoints2, WtFig3, JPR4, etc. Finally: UPROL 8-1 vs. 20-1 on the toteboard. The key for me goes to mindset. Very few 20-1's are worth it in the long run if UPR-JPR, etc. are your only criteria. But looking at the horse's record in its entirety vs. the 20-1 on the toteboard -- the following thought popped into my head: "Enough race" -- "enough clues for the horse" -- "and the public disagrees with me." From there it wasn't all that hard to get to: "Worth a shot at 20-1." Oddly enough, decisions arrived at in that manner have treated me well over the years. ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 8/4/2013 at: 10:39:18 AM~ ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 8/4/2013 at: 11:31:29 AM~
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| Caveat 8/4/2013 7:09:51 PM | Charlie...I'd wish it would smack me once in a while...:) Mike
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| JustRalph 8/7/2013 3:21:28 AM | bris file.......probably is the difference. Any JPR 2 at 20-1 is worth a look. I should have looked harder........ those kinds can make a month................. onward and upward!
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| Charli125 8/7/2013 5:14:18 PM | Perfect horse that I should've used in the contest. Lots of other folks had it. Good hit to those that did.
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| Charlie James 8/10/2013 7:35:30 PM | Same thought process different day -- SAR R8 Dangerous Lad $35.60
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| Caveat 8/11/2013 7:51:14 AM | Alot of "1" 's for this one including JPR & UPR The question is...Did you have him this time Charlie? LOL Mike
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| Charli125 8/12/2013 11:53:28 AM | I got that one. Hit a small P4, but hit it quite a few times. I've been doing pretty well at the Spa so far. Started out rough, but been hot lately. Good times.
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| Caveat 8/12/2013 12:49:46 PM | thumbs up buddy!!
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