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HDW Derby File is up

jeff
5/2/2013
2:28:32 PM

Let the madness begin. As always...

-jp

.

Charli125
5/2/2013
8:08:25 PM

I like it. The two horses I liked originally(Normandy Invasion and GoldenCents) look good on jcapper.

jeff
5/3/2013
12:09:21 PM

First glance look at the Derby itself...

Pace Index is 94.

That's tilted enough on the high side that it appears (to me) the likely pace setters including Verrazano who is 4/1 on the ML will be up against it.

Looking specifically at Verrazano's running lines (from the bottom up) I see the following:

• 01Jan13GP2 6.5f - MSplwt - much the best/drew off at will on a speed favoring surface at 9/5.

• 02Feb13GP5 8.0f - AOC54k nw1-N - much the best/drew off at will on a speed favoring surface at 1/5.

• 09Mar13TAM10 8.5f - TampaDbyG2 - LONE pacesetter on a VERY speed favoring surface/won by 3L at 2/5.

However, the runner up that day (Java's War) made a nice rally from off the pace and was gaining on the leader at the end. His against the bias move that day was eye catching enough to me that I included him as a horse to watch in my trip notes should he face Verrazano again especially at a longer distance. FYI, Java's War won the Blue Grass in his next start at 9/2.

• 06Apr13AQU11 9.0f - WoodMemG1 - Set the pace on a speed favoring surface that day and won by 0.75L as the 4/5 favorite.

In that same race, Normandy Invasion closed into the speed bias to get runner up honors. His move was eye catching enough to me that I included a comment about him in my trip notes to the effect that had there been more distance that day he and not Verrazano would have been best.

In that same race Vyjack was 3rd. However, he lost position in the stretch after stalking the pace - and for that reason I am tossing him from contention for the Derby.

From the Wood Memorial, NORMANDY INVASION makes my contender list - while at the same time I am tossing both Verrazano and Vyjack.

From the Tampa Bay Derby, JAVA's WAR makes my contender list - while at the same time I am tossing Verrazano.

More to come...

-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff on: 5/3/2013 at: 12:09:21 PM~

jeff
5/4/2013
3:02:05 PM

Hunting through data folders on different machines, I was able to scrape together 7 sets of Derby files... 2006-2012.

From there I put each on its own folder, and built a database in mode 1 on each folder.

From there I used Data Window Export to create a quick index file for the starters in those 7 derby day cards only.

From there I used Data Window Export to load the starters from those 7 Derby cards into the starterhistory table of a fresh blank JCapper2.mdb file.

Admittedly, 7 races makes for a small sample. That said, I came up with a simple sql UDM (Hey, it's probably a complete back fit) that managed to peg 6 of the last 7 Derby winners...


query start:         5/4/2013 11:53:05 AM
query end:           5/4/2013 11:53:05 AM
elapsed time:        0 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_Derby.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRACK='CDX' 
      AND DIST=2200 
      AND INTSURFACE <= 3 
      AND FCYCLE <= 2 
      AND LEN2CALL >= 0.5 
      AND LEN2CALL < 3.75 
      AND XTHSTARTRIDER <= 4
      AND XTHSTARTLASIX <= 7
`
`
Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      218.60        115.40         87.80
Bet                -58.00        -58.00        -58.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                160.60         57.40         29.80
`
Wins                    6             7             9
Plays                  29            29            29
PCT                 .2069         .2414         .3103
`
ROI                3.7690        1.9897        1.5138
Avg Mut             36.43         16.49          9.76

The 5 horses it pegged this year? I just might have to

#3 REVOLUTIONARY 45.00 (ML 10)
#5 NORMANDY INVASION 74.47 (ML 12)
#7 GIANT FINISH 45.00 (ML 50)
#13 FALLING SKY 45.00 (ML 50)
#20 VYJACK 45.00 (ML 15)

Just for fun, I edited the above factor constraints for dirt races at all tracks everywhere and ran it through the Data Window. Here's what I have for the races of calendar year 2013 only:


query start:         5/4/2013 12:30:49 PM
query end:           5/4/2013 12:30:55 PM
elapsed time:        6 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
`
SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE INTSURFACE <= 3 
      AND FCYCLE <= 2 
      AND LEN2CALL >= 0.5 
      AND LEN2CALL < 3.75 
      AND XTHSTARTRIDER <= 4 
      AND XTHSTARTLASIX <= 7 
      AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2013# 
      AND [DATE] <= #12-31-2013# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
`
`
Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals     5844.70       5630.50       5727.70
Bet              -7426.00      -7426.00      -7426.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L              -1581.30      -1795.50      -1698.30
`
Wins                  756          1322          1828
Plays                3713          3713          3713
PCT                 .2036         .3560         .4923
`
ROI                0.7871        0.7582        0.7713
Avg Mut              7.73          4.26          3.13

Note that both samples have almost identical win rates (but vastly different roi.)

Could it be that 20 horse fields and tons of money from casual fans make them pay more in the Derby?

And could the "they pay more in the Derby" effect be true in the long run for just about any UDM or decent contender methodology many of us might devise?

Food for thought.

-jp

.

Charlie James
5/5/2013
11:16:06 AM

At least you called the hot pace right.

Wish I had. My pick was Golendcents [west coast connections] -- Ughh.

I just now watched a replay of Golden Soul's trip in his Derby prep race the Louisiana Derby.

He made a nice closing move vs. the field of 14 while about 8 wide on the turn.

In that same race, there was a crush of traffic in the upper stretch that I'd have to say cost Palace Malice 5-6 lengths.

In retrospect, trying to put a number on those two events --

I'd take the speed fig Golden Soul earned in the Louisiana Derby and adjust it upward by 6-7 lengths for ground loss on the turn. I'd also elevate the speed fig that Palace Malice earned in that same race by 5-6 lengths.

I think a lot of people recognized what happened to Palace Malice in the Louisiana race because they made him 9/2 for his next out in the Bluegrass.

But I think a lot of people missed Golden Soul's wide rally in his Derby prep race and simply took his speed fig in that race at face value.

I know that's what I did.

Huge mistake.

By the way, Jeff, I liked your On this day I am a fan post at the HANA blog.

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General Discussion -- HDW Derby File is up

General Discussion
-- HDW Derby File is up