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| By | Breeders Cup files now up | |
| jeff 10/31/2012 10:03:10 AM | Files for this year's Breeders Cup (both Fri and Sat) are now available for download at the HDW site. Hint: Using JCapper's HDW File Download Tool, click the Queue Data Files button. The Fri race card is SA1102J.ZIP and the Sat card is SA1103J.ZIP. -jp .
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| Charli125 11/1/2012 11:08:36 AM | From what I remember of previous Breeder's Cups, Class, Form, and Pscore were key. I remember Jeff coming up with something really simple that involved Pscore and MLOR3 which showed a flat bet profit for BC weekends. Given that, there are a few horses that jump out to me using only jcapper. Before wagering I'll look at the PP's and workout reports to see if I missed anything, but these are my jcapper only thoughts. Friday Races Race 4: Super Ninety Nine(5) looks very strong though not at great odds. If I play the P5, I'll key him heavily. Top class, top form, and top Pscore. Race 5: I like Eldaafer(10) with 2nd Pscore, top class, and top form. I don't think Commander(11) will be able to wire the field but there's a chance. Race 6: I'll have to pass this one because I don't know enough about the foreign horses. I do know foreign horses win at a high percentage in turf routes from past database work, but I'll leave this race. Race 7: The favorite, ExecutivePrivilege(2) looks good to me here, but I'd have to look at the 1, 8, and 4 as well. Race 8: Zagora(2) and In Lingerie(12) jump out to me at good prices. Again though, the foreign horses throw me off. I'll tread lightly here. Race 9: Royal Delta(6) looks strong, but I'll play My Miss Aurelia(2) as well as Class Included(3), and Awesome Feather(5) Race 10: Leaving the 2 & 7 to be looked at separately because they're foreign, I end up with Smart Ellis(4) with top form, top Pscore, and good late numbers. I think Huntsville(9) won't have enough to wire them, especially from the 9 hole, but he and All Squared Away(5) will also be contenders in my book. One other horse in this race that is interesting is Power Foot(3). Good form numbers, good late numbers, and out of a British sire so deserves a 2nd look in a turf route. Anyone have advice on playing foreign horses? As for betting, I plan on playing the P5, the late P4, and will go with some exotics throughout the card when I see value. Good luck everyone!
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| Charli125 11/1/2012 11:32:03 AM | Again, remember, these are my jcapper only thoughts. Haven't looked at the PP's or workout reports yet. Saturday Races Race 1: If this wasn't in the P5 sequence, I wouldn't play it. 5 horse field to start the P5 on BC day? Come on guys. I think Unusual Way(4) and Truly Marie(3) have a shot to upset the favorite. Race 2: Going to have to check out the foreign horses, but Mico Margarita(12) and Gabriel Charles(5) figure in terms of form, pscore, and class. Race 3: It's the BC, the hell with the favorites! While Mile High Magic(4) looks tough here, and I'll have him in my P5, I'll try to beat him with PoliticallyCorrect(3), Private Zone(5), and possibly Our Lucky Son(2). Race 4: Continuing the trend of form, class, and pscore, I end up with Gervinho(4), and Joha(10). Wouldn't leave Balance the Books(8) off my exotics though. Race 5: Groupie Doll(9) is the closest thing to a single on this card in my opinion, but since it's the BC, I'll try to beat her with Dust and Diamonds(3) and Great Hot(7). Race 6: I like Shackleford(6) in the exotics, but not to win. I'll be playing Jersey Town(3) heavily, with Emcee(7) a close 2nd. In the exotics I'll also add in Delegation(2) and Fed Biz(5). Race 7: This one looks very wide open to me. I'll spread in exotics if I play any, but will lean towards California Flag(1), Mizdirection(11), and Reneesgotzip(7). The favorite has to figure as well and you'll probably get good odds. Race 8: Power Broker(9) has to get crushed at the windows with his connections, but I like him and Shanghai Bobby(4). Doubt we'll get a price in this race. Race 9: I've made and lost a lot of money on Dullahan(9), so I'm hesitant here. But, it's the BC, so I'm going to be betting him. While I love Turbo Compressor(2), and will use him in vertical exotics, Bravo will have to have a great ride to not get caught at a mile and a half distance. This is one that I'll have to look at the track bias report to see what his chances are. Race 10: This race should pay a ton. I really don't have my mind made up just looking at jcapper, but I have to give Trinniberg(9) and Poseidons Warrior(13) a good shot. I also like Smiling Tiger(10), and Amazombie(11) is no slouch. This race is going to be expensive for me, but it could make a season. Race 11: The foreign horses look tough here, and everything I'm hearing from my Euro friends says that Excelebration(6) is a single for them. I'm certainly not on the Wise Dan(2) train, so I'll try to beat him with Mr. Commons(1) who is top form, top Pscore, good late, and good figs. I'll also have Jeranimo(4) in there who rates well in most consensus categories. Race 12: Last race. I'm already tired and this is just my initial run through! While Game On Dude(5) does figure, I'll try to beat him, and he's by no means a lock in my opinion. I'll be playing Mucho Macho man (11) due to his form, class, figs, etc. I'll also play To Honor And Serve(12) who is the top jpr, upr, and consensus class horse. Might be that the 5 and 12 battle too much for the lead and get worn out which will play well to the 11, but will cause me to add Flat Out(2) and Pool Play(1) since they look like the strongest closers. In vertical exotics, I'll also have Nonios(8), but I wouldn't call him a win candidate. I hope you guys don't mind me clogging up this thread. It helps me to type out my thoughts. Would love any feedback you folks have.
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| jeff 11/2/2012 4:28:28 PM | Interesting insights Charlie... This year I did something that I've wanted to do for a long time. I made the effort to acquire a complete set of comma delimited data files (Breeders Cup only) for as far back as they were available. Overview The Breeders Cup is very different than the typical race cards most of us contend with on a daily basis. Historically, contention runs deep in most of the Breeders Cup races. Large fields of closely matched horses are the order of the day. The public pours tons of uninformed money into the pools - creating special situations that do not exist on normal days. In so doing, the public overemphasizes speed figs while ignoring form. About the Database For this project, I compiled a database spanning the past 14 years of Breeders Cup data files. I would have preferred to use HDW files for this project. (They are what I use for my everyday live play.) My own (carefully kept) wager history indicates better overall results with HDW data than with Brisnet data. My thinking about why this is so runs in the direction that fewer pairs of eyes see HDW speed and pace figs each day than their Brisnet counterparts. Consider, Brisnet currently gives their speed and pace figs away in the form of free PDF past performances to anyone using their Twinspires ADW. In addition, the track feeds for CDI owned tracks now contain graphics pointing out the top pace, fig, class, and prime power horses in each race. (In my opinion, the days of Brisnet speed and pace figs providing hidden value to the player have now largely become a thing of the past.) However, the oldest back JCapper files that HDW has available run from January 01, 2009 going forward. (HDW first began offering JCapper files in March, 2010.) Brisnet has been offering comma delimited data files for a very long time. In fact, the Brisnet Archive Server contains DRF Single Files and matching XRD Results Files from calendar year 1997 going forward. For purposes of this write up I thought 15 years of back Breeders Cup data might be more relevant than 3 years of back HDW data. Accordingly, I chose Brisnet for this specific project instead of HDW. I obtained the data used for this project by emailing Bobby Rosenburg at Brisnet.com. He was kind enough to put together a Breeders Cup File Archive - DRF Single Format Data Files and Matching XRD Results Files for every Breeders Cup Card for calendar years 1997-2011 (15 years in all.) Note: There was one glitch in the files emailed out to me. Breeders Cup Saturday back in 1997 was on November 08, 1997. The archive emailed to me contained the correct 1997 XRD file - but the DRF Single File included in the archive was the HOL card for the previous day - Fri HOL1107.DRF. It is for that reason that the data presented in my write up illustrates public betting trends for the past 14 years of Breeders Cup history and not the 15 years I had initially intended. Folder Structure I would have preferred to use a single folder for this project. However, that was not possible. The files are from different years. Because of that, and because the Breeders Cup is run at the same group of tracks at the same time of year each year - the possibility exists that a set of files from one year will have identical file names as the set of files from a later year. Because of that, I decided on the following folder structure for this project: C:\BC_Hist C:\BC_Hist\1997 C:\BC_Hist\1998 C:\BC_Hist\1999 C:\BC_Hist\2000 C:\BC_Hist\2001 C:\BC_Hist\2002 C:\BC_Hist\2003 C:\BC_Hist\2004 C:\BC_Hist\2005 C:\BC_Hist\2006 C:\BC_Hist\2007 C:\BC_Hist\2008 C:\BC_Hist\2009 C:\BC_Hist\2010 C:\BC_Hist\2011 My folder structure for this project can best be described as: A top level Breeders Cup folder with sub folders underneath for each of the individual years. The 1997 files were extracted onto the C:\BC_Hist\1997 folder; the 1998 files were extracted onto the C:\BC_Hist\1998 folder; the 1999 files were extracted onto the C:\BC_Hist\1999 folder, etc. – until the files for each of the years had been extracted onto the correct folder. Nuts and Bolts From there, I temporarily renamed my current c:\JCapper\Exe\JCapper2.mdb file to preserve it and get it out of the way. I then grabbed a fresh blank copy of the file from my c:\JCapperBuild folder and copied it to my c:\JCapper\Exe folder. The final step was to import everything except StarterHistory table data out of my old file into my new file. With that out of the way, I now had a JCapper2.mdb file that was ready to have its StarterHistory table populated with Breeders Cup data for the past 14 years. The next (required) step that I did was to go into the User System Definitions Screen and persist my Data Vendor setting as Brisnet. From there, I built the first folder (C:\BC_Hist\1998) using Mode 3 - and then built the folders for each successive year using Mode 4. Once the database builds had been completed, I renamed the C:\JCapper\Exe\JCapper2.mdb file that now contained Breeders Cup history data in its StarterHistory table from C:\JCapper\Exe\JCapper2.mdb to C:\JCapper\Exe\ JCapper2_BC_Hist.mdb - and then renamed my current JCapper2.mdb file (that had been renamed above to get it out of the way) back to JCapper2.mdb so that it could once again be used for current R&D and daily live play. At this point, with all prerequisite work for this project complete - the time has now come to use the Data Window and dive into some public betting trends on Breeders Cup day. Link to BC Hist Impact Study text file: --click here-- Enjoy, -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 11/2/2012 at: 4:28:28 PM~
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| Charli125 11/2/2012 6:14:56 PM | Great stuff Jeff.
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| STUBALL 11/3/2012 7:02:32 AM | amazing info that not many have....we are so lucky to have access to this info...thanks
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| Charli125 11/3/2012 6:53:36 PM | Profitable day. Would've been much more profitable if any of the 2-4th finishers beat Wise Dan. Damn, watching that P4 price is going to hurt.
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| Charli125 11/3/2012 7:23:52 PM | Reminds me of some of the best advice I've ever received. When you're right, make sure you get paid. I crushed the first two legs of the P4, and didn't make a dime on them. Unfortunately, I didn't keep that in mind today and losing a big P4, on BC day, to a 5.20 winning favorite, is the perfect example of why that advice is so important.
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| Charlie James 11/4/2012 12:27:01 PM | Jeff, Thanks for posting some great info. I took a diifferent approach than most. Built a udm based on hot stakes riders and trainers LEADING UP TO the BC. I ran stakes only Oct 1 thru Nov 1 broken out by rider sorted by # of wins. The top 5 names all had 5 or more wins so that's what I used. I generally use about 3X the number of trainers as riders in my udms. The same time period -- stakes only -- broken out by trainer -- sorted by wins -- showed plenty of trainers with stakes wins. A head count suggested 2 or more wins was about right. From there I used the sql name selection tool to get a list of trainers with 2 or more wins and a 1.00 roi and pasted the formatted names into my BC udm. Over the two days:
Not bad. Zagora on day1. Little Mike on day2. I've used similar strategies [with success] in the past leading up to stakes at specific meets but never the BC before. I plan on doing similar work ups for the past several BC's just to verify -- but am of the opinion that the 2 day BC is a separate high quality meet -- one where the best riders and trainers 'should' rise to the occasion. ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 11/4/2012 at: 12:27:01 PM~
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| Charlie James 11/5/2012 1:18:27 PM | @Stuball -- Q. Is that you who finished 4th with a 2.62 roi in the BC challenge contest at paceadvantage?
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