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data sample - post time favorites

jeff
9/11/2012
10:43:07 AM

--quote:

"Jeff,

I found your site when I was searching for horse racing statistics. I am hoping you may be able to point me in the right direction.

I am trying to learn how often the favorite (or second favorite) wins, or finishes 2nd, 3rd, or 4th and what the impact is when you add horses. I would like to try to see the numbers breakout for races with 8,9,10,11 and 12 runners. Ultimately I am trying to see impact on Superfecta payouts when the favorite hits the board versus when it finishes off of it. Do you know if these statistics exist? If not, would you know of any way to get an excel file of 1,000+ race results to try to calculate it myself?

Any direction at all would be appreciated,

Thanks,

Mike"

--end quote

Easy enough to run.

Link to impact study text file:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/Reports/Impact_Study_FavoritesSinceJan012011.txt

About the data sample:

The data in the above linked to text file is a collection of cut and pastes of output lifted from the JCapper Data Window.

The queries were run in SQL Mode against a JCapper2.mdb file populated with HDW data. The sample spans all thoroughbred races run in North America from Jan 01, 2011 through yesterday Sept 10, 2012 (about 88k races in all.)

The top section of the file shows all starters in the sample broken out by odds rank. From this, it is easy to determine that the post time favorite was the "official race winner" 36.97% of the races, the second public choice won 21.87% of the races, and the third public choice won 14.68% of the races, etc.

The next section in the file shows post time favorites only - further broken out by various factors, including BY FINISH POSITION. Here, you can see that post time favorites were first at the wire 36.97% of the time, second at the wire 20.94% of the time, and third at the wire 13.94% of the time, etc.

Note: Any differences between "official" placement and finish position at the wire are attributable to dead heats and actions taken by the stewards.

I've also included an Exacta Matrix that shows the performance of post time favorites both over and under the 2nd through 8th ranked public choices.

I hope I've been able to help.

-jp

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General Discussion -- data sample - post time favorites

General Discussion
-- data sample - post time favorites