|
JCapper Message Board General Discussion
|
| Home |
Register
Log In |
| By | How many feet off the rail at time of call | |
| Windoor 5/28/2012 6:14:48 AM | Probably just wishful thinking, but does anyone, anywhere, list the calls of the race along with how many feet off the rail the horse was at the time of the call? I have been watching a few races over the holiday weekend and made some notes on some horses I played and lost. One of the tracks I play usually has a dead rail. When I see a horse I had an interest in, that was stuck on the rail (and close to the front) at the top of stretch and lose, I am very much interested in this horse the next time it runs. Especially with a more favorable post position and or jockey. Unfortunately I can not watch all the races I play and had a thought that this would be some useful information to have. As long as I am wishing, an accurate variant number per call, based on the above information would be ideal. Then you could probably make more accurate fractional numbers. If a horse was running on a known section of the track that was slow, it should show a higher variant here, and then you could make adjustments to the fraction numbers. I place a high value on 1/2 and 3/4 mile times. Anything that would improve the accuracy of these numbers would be a benefit. Regards, Windoor
| |
| jeff 5/28/2012 8:01:19 PM | I'm not aware of a service that sells or publishes that type of info. Even if there were, in my opinion, there's nothing like watching a race - or replays - and trusting your own two eyes. Also, in my opinion, time spent watching replays is time very well spent. You might want to consider using JCapper's TripNotes Module to record the following: 1. A Daily Track Profile Note for each race card. This can be a brief description of anything (not necessarily glaring) but out of the ordinary you notice about the card - provided in your opinion that something affected race outcomes throughout much of the card. Here are a few examples: DIRT- WET -DEAD RAIL - SPEED TIRING DIRT- DRY - GOLDEN RAIL - SPEED FRIENDLY TURF - TEMP RAIL 22FT - SPEED OK TURF - NO TEMP RAIL - CLOSERS PARADISE 2. From there, you may want to consider recording trip notes for individual horses on that card. If paths wide, or where a horse raced on the surface, or how the surface (or a rider's decision) influenced a race outcome - and if that type of thing has meaning to you when a horse comes back to race again, then write that into your trip notes for the individual horse. Here is a Daily Track Profile Note that I recorded while watching yesterday's card at EMD: ********************************************************************** Here are two trip notes from a race I played yesterday at EMD:
Imho, when Exclusive Diva comes back to race again, her running line from yesterday's race is going to look quite a bit better in the pps to the betting public than it really was. She got a clean front running trip on a speed favoring strip - and imho, the rider of her only real pace foe in the race (Lady Hokelea) mishandled his mount - and in do doing handed Exclusive Diva an ideal trip. Conversely, when Lady Hokulea comes back to race, her running line in the pps from yesterday's race is going to look quite a bit worse to the betting public than it actually was. IMHO, she was the fastest early horse in the race - and if her rider had sent immediately (instead of putting her under a hammerlock and allowing the rest of the field to get away from the gate before allowing her to run) the two of them could have gone to the lead (even after breaking awkwardly) and taken Exclusive Diva completely out of her game instead of the other way around. In my opinion, the rider's actions at the break resulted in Lady Hokulea getting a terrible trip - one that won't be easy for the public to glean from the running line as shown in the pps. If these two were to meet again within the next 45 to 60 days - and please understand that may or may not actually happen - I'd expect the public to make Exclusive Diva 6/5 and Lady Hokulea about 5/1. If that does happen, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the order of finish between the two reversed. Trust your eyes. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 5/28/2012 at: 8:01:19 PM~
| |
| jeff 5/28/2012 3:03:13 PM | On a normal (make that fair) track surface, ground loss based on paths wide on turns can be evaluated using the following template: • One length equals X number of feet. I've seen coherent arguments made for 10 feet as well as 8 feet. (Take your pick.) • A typical 1 mile track layout has 2 turns - each describing a half circle with a diameter of about 840 feet (or a radius of about 420 feet.) Note that radius of turns does vary from one track to another. • Each horse has a "width" of approximately 3 feet. Each "width" or path wide adds about 3 feet to the radius. • The formula for circumference of a circle is: (Pi) x (2) x (radius) • Geometrically, each turn is a half circle. Distance traveled negotiating one turn, can therefore (and this is approximate) be calculated using the following formula: (Pi) x (radius) Using the above template, where 1 length equals 8 feet, a horse that is 3 paths wide on a single turn travels roughly 3.5 lengths further than a horse that is 0 paths wide. Calculations for Distance Traveled: Horse at 0 paths wide: D = (Pi) x (Radius) D = (3.1416) x (420) D = 1319.47 feet traveled - one turn Horse at 3 paths wide: D = (Pi) x (Radius) D = (3.1416) x (429) D = 1347.75 feet traveled - one turn Difference in lengths: DL = (1347.75 - 1319.47) / 8 DL = 3.53 -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 5/28/2012 at: 3:03:13 PM~
|
| Reply |
|
Copyright © 2018 JCapper Software back to the JCapper Message Board www.JCapper.com |