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| By | derby picks | |
| rkskipster 5/5/2012 7:44:38 AM | who do you like? I am leaning toward dullahan or el padrino . rick
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| Ishmael 5/5/2012 10:54:01 AM | funny i like the same two myself
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| parshooter 5/5/2012 11:02:32 AM | My JCapper derby UDM's point to the likely favorite Bodemeister, with a possible play of Alpha FWIW. Good Luck
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| jeff 5/5/2012 1:33:47 PM | Link to my HTML Report: http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/reports/cdx05052012.html Mark Chars/UDM Naming and Color Schema: "A" UDMs Names of my "A" UDMs begin with the characters "0_A-" so as to make them sort on top of the UDM list. I used Mark Chars on the Modify UDM Screen to drive background color to make them stick out on the report. (Instead of looking for UDM names on the report I simply look for "color.") Examples: "B" UDMs Names of my "B" UDMs begin with the characters "0_B-" so as to make them sort just beneath the "A's" on the UDM list. I used Mark Chars on the Modify UDM Screen to drive background color to make the "B's" stick out separately on the report. Examples: The track was listed as SY and then MY early on today. The CDX strip dries fast and (rightly or wrongly) was later upgraded to FT. From what I can see so far, the moisture in the track does not appear to be overly compromising the chances of horses possessing early speed. Looking at the Derby itself, no horses are flagged by an "A" UDM. That said, BODEMEISTER towers over the field figure wise. On last night's HANA conference call Mike Maloney talked about the possibility of BODEMEISTER being a freak. HDW has him as an "E" run style horse and the speed points algorithm I wrote for JCapper gives him 7 early speed points (making him an E7.) There is other speed in the race in TRINNIBERG and HANSEN. In my opinion, the question is "Can Smith get BODEMEISTER to rate? Even just a little? If so, then I think that trip gets them the roses. If horse and rider find themselves fighting the other speed horses for the lead then I think that trip gets them underneath honors in the tri and super. As I type this current odds for BODEMEISTER are 9-2. Current Derby odds can be found here: http://www.kentuckyderbyonline.com/odds.html Good luck to all, -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 5/5/2012 at: 1:33:47 PM~
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| bettheoverlay 5/5/2012 2:54:03 PM | All the power ratings (Bris) including my own 2 are tagging Hansen as Rank1. Also is R1 in my early speed factor and early consensus. Somehow I can't see him lasting the distance, but at 13/1 over my 4/1 uprml its tough to pass him up. My ml has Bodemeister 4.9 so he is also a o/l at 7/1 currently. I have a middle speed user factor that does well at longer distances turf or dirt and that is tagging Take Charge Indy R1. My handicapping instincts has in order Union Rags. El Padrino, Alpha.
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| jeff 5/6/2012 1:47:51 PM | Derby Day Card Wrap Up A few of you reported that Twinspires was down for a time yesterday. Funny how Groundhog Day comes once a year for racing on the first Saturday in May. Not funny because players risk not being able to bet the Derby through the ADW owned by the host track. No excuse. Shameful. BODEMEISTER impressed the hell out of me even in defeat. Setting the pace in fractions of 22.1 and 45.1 he still had a chance to win it a furlong out. I nearly pulled off a betting coup but it was not to be. On the HANA call Fri night, John Doyle and Mike Maloney talked about horses they liked on the undercard. Two of those horses were HUNGRY ISLAND ($13.20) in R8 and GROUPIE DOLL ($8.20) in R9. Some background is in order first. I have spent enough time track-side with both John and Mike to know both those guys are the real deal. Both play what can best be described as a complete game. (Very much like a grand master can be said to play a complete game in the Chess world.) Based on their comments about those two horses while on the call (and partly because I did not have strong opinions in R8 and R9 of my own) I decided to give those two horses a second look and created DD and P4 tickets around them. My tickets looked like this: DD 10 5,6 P4 10 5,6 ALL - 6 My thinking behind the ticket structure went something like this: If I could be "live" in the P4 to BODEMEISTER as a single in the Derby, and if BODEMEISTER could win the race, I could reasonably expect a significant premium in the odds vs. the 4-1 or 5-1 available on that same horse in the win pool. The P4 ticket was an extended version of a win bet on a single horse one with potential to pay off in a big way if the horse could win the race. The P4 will pays that I saw had the $1.00 payoff to the 6 in the Derby at $8515.00. Doing some basic math, that will pay (if correct) to the 6 in the Derby was the same as odds of 386-1. Compare that to BODEMESITERs win pool odds of 4.20 to one. The double ticket was a hedge bet designed to cover the cost of the P4 ticket (and then some) in the event the expected hot pace in the Derby took its toll (which it did.) The 10 6 double paid $81.40 for $2.00. Funny thing When I saw BODEMEISTER shortening stride in the final sixteenth (and realized my bet was toast) I in no way felt cheated. I felt like the horse had run his race that I had made the correct play and that I would gladly do it all over again given the same or similar set of circumstances. One other comment: With all the bad press about racing in the weeks leading up to the Derby the articles in the NY Times about drugging and break downs the Takeout Gate scandal at NYRA Robby Albarado being arrested - Yesterday's Derby went off without a hitch. The headlines ended up being about an underdog horse and jockey and record Derby day handle and attendance - and not about the darker side of racing. Of that I am glad. -jp .
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| Charlie James 5/7/2012 8:46:10 PM | Bodiemeister's race got me to thinking about a horse named Spend A Buck who wired em in the derby while setting fast fractions. Seems like yesterday but it was 27 years ago --1985 to be exact. Google news story -- thanks Jeff for helping out with the formatting -- link: http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=2199&dat=19850505&id=qC0yAAAAIBAJ&sjid=ZeUFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6343,1190818 The nostalgia kicks in as soon as I look at the horse's past performance record. Spend A Buck's 3 year old campaign: 20Apr85 GS 1 1/8 M... wire job by 9 1/2 in the Garden State 6Apr85 GS 1Mile... wire job by 10 1/2 in the Cherry Hill Mile 23Mar85 Aqu 7f... 3rd in the Bay Shore His derby campaign? Three races in a row on or near the lead in what? 6 weeks? He raced 8 times as a 2 year old too. The derby was career start #12 for him. The thing that makes me sick is that was the norm for the horses of his day. Outfits RACED horses to get them into condition! Now, lifetime starts for this year's crop going into the derby: Daddy Long Legs 5 LTS Optimizer 9 Take Charge Indy 6 Union Rags 6 Dullahan 8 Bodiemeister 4 Rousing Sermon 9 Creative Cause 8 Trinniberg 7 Daddy Nose Best 10 Alpha 6 Prospective 8 Went The day Well 5 Hansen 6 Gemologist 5 El Padrino 6 Done Talking 7 Sabercat 8 I'll Have Another 5 Lliason 7 Is there anyone who can look me in the eye and tell me WTF is really going on here? 14 out of 20 horses -- 70% -- under 8 starts! Has durability been completely bred out of the gene pool in so short a time? The more I think about today's "horsemen" the more I want to puke. ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 5/7/2012 at: 8:45:06 PM~ ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 5/7/2012 at: 8:46:10 PM~
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