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| By | Universal Question: Which Track to play??? | |
| rosenowsr 4/16/2012 9:36:42 PM | Hawthorne is coming to an end, had a pretty good year there so far(that means I didn't lose to badly). LOL It is not the programs fault , just the way I bet is all. What track should I try next? I prefer a track where the "whales" don't go. I suppose that means a track on the smaller size. The longer there running season the better, but a short one is doable if the race fields are full. Any suggestions will be appreciated. Thanks
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| jeff 4/18/2012 6:19:30 PM | Other than some of the obscure county fair meets (that aren't carried by ADWs) it would be really tough for me to name even one track with zero whale handle in the pools. One of the team leads explained it to me this way: "Except for special event days like the Breeders Cup and Triple Crown races, we are willing to bet up to 2% of our estimate for final pool size." Within the context of the conversation we were having, he was talking about literally every track in North America. If an overlay is suggested by their model - somewhere between 1% and 2% of every pool for that race is generated by them. That said, if you liked Hawthorne, then ask yourself why. Was it the speed favoring nature of the surface? The unpredictable (or predictable) nature of the somewhat cheaper horses? Were you able to get an early read on which outfits had horses that were fit and ready vs. outfits that didn't? Were you able to identify a short list of riders who figured out how to ride the speed favoring surface effectively?... And were you able to identify them early enough in the meet to take advantage? (i.e. Francisco Torres) If you can answer WHY you had a good HAW meet -- Then you should be able to take some of those same ideas and transfer them over to another meet. Plenty of meets to choose from this time of year. Personally, after HAW I'm looking forward to DEL and FLX (Delaware and Finger Lakes) this summer. -jp .
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| Windoor 4/18/2012 7:01:46 PM | If your database is sufficient, can you not break out your UDM by track and see how it did historically? I use this feature a lot. Regards, Windoor
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| rosenowsr 4/18/2012 7:50:25 PM | Thank you Jeff for the reply, you gave me some good points to ponder upon. Windoor: I have the JCapper Silver plan DualData (HDW or Bris), I use Bris data and play only 1 or 2 tracks for the duration of there season. I am what they call a recreational bettor, LOL. I spend 8 hours, usually more trying to figure out where to put my $2.00. I usually end up calculating myself away from the winning horse. Since I started using JCapper that happens less often then before. Again, thanks Jeff. Buy the way Windoor I enjoy reading your posts I find them interesting and insightful.
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| Windoor 4/19/2012 11:33:39 AM | Thank-you for the kind words. It would appear I do not choose my words wisely at times, and as recent events would reveal, they are not accepted very well. Whenever I enjoy some small success, my already big head swells, and I feel the need to shout it to the world. A big mistake, and I am sure the racing Gods will punish me for it, as they have done so in the past. I will not be posting much anymore. I intend to bury myself in research, and spend some time helping the needy, as to ward off the worst of it. I believe in Karma. I will also think very carefully about the words I put down before I hit "Summit". Regards, Windoor ~Edited by: Windoor on: 4/19/2012 at: 11:33:39 AM~
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