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| By | How many active UDM's do you have/ | |
| Windoor 12/20/2011 8:51:08 AM | I haven’t posted (anywhere) in some time, as all of my free time has been spent building databases and using the data window. It is very addictive and a real eye opener when you can see the big picture. Letting go of some long held beliefs was a hard thing to do, but you can’t argue with the data. Just curious as this is my first year with J/Capper, and after cleaning out the closet I still have nineteen active UDM’s. All of them show a positive ROI for the year 2011. Some are variants of a prime factor and others are track specific, but there are still twelve individual “spot” plays. All of this was done for a specific class range of claiming horses. I haven’t started on allowance or stake races yet, nor have I looked at turf races. It seems never ending, but I decided to take what I have into the new year and see how many of them survive the first quarter before I start up again. I may even consider a place wager for the first time in many years, as the data shows most of them can be profitable here, and will do wonders for the losing streaks. Whishing everyone a Merry Christmas and profitable 2012. Regards, Windoor
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| Charlie James 12/20/2011 11:01:46 PM | I have about 30 active udms that collectively make up what I refer to as the 'core' of my play. Most are simple in design and are attempts to model what I see trainers doing to make scores for themselves. Short tangent-- when I first started using jcapper in 2003 I told Jeff I didn't forsee the day when I'd even look at factors like cpace, work brilliance, form rating, jrating, etc. All I orginaly wanted was help automating trainer moves kept in a notebook. -- I'm talking about a manual set of records for things like go-to riders, claims, private purchases, stretch outs, drops, raises, cut backs, equipment changes, etc. For the most part that's still how I operate 8 yrs later; but over the past 2 years I've found it possible to improve the quality of my 'core' udm selections by analyzing them using jcapper factors not normally associated with trainer handicapping. Barring a complete meltdown in the next few days, 2011 will have wound up as another good wagering year for me. 23 of the 'core' udms turned a profit in '11. 7 were losers. But 4 of those 7 were profitable when combined with at least 1 of the 23 good ones. (Thank you sql mode.) I've been capping and betting for 40+ years now. Keep in mind that while the core udm set suggests 20-25 plays a week; I insist on getting value before opening the wallet -- or hitting that submit button. I typically bet 5-8 races a week only. When I make a horse 2/1 and the crowd has it at 5/2 or less, I'll sit and watch. If the crowd makes that same horse 3/1, suddenly I'm interested. If there's one thing I've learned it's this: If you don't think the wager itself represents value you have absolutely no business making the bet. Imho, that's what really separates the men from the boys -- and for those who can't do that, that's what separates the addicted gambler from his money. Looking back I've also come to believe that even a year might be too short a time frame to sensibly evaluate udms. We bet in the short term based on our attempts at modeling the big picture. Experience keeps telling me: best to give the big picture a chance to show itself. Enough ramblings from this elderly gentlemen -- Let me close by raising a glass and wishing everyone out there in JCapper-ville a Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year. ~Edited by: Charlie James on: 12/20/2011 at: 11:01:46 PM~
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| jeff 12/21/2011 4:04:40 PM | --quote: "If there's one thing I've learned it's this: If you don't think the wager itself represents value you have absolutely no business making the bet. "--end quote Chuck, In my opinion, the bolded part of the above quote from you hits the nail squarely on the head. Happy Holidays, -jp .
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| Ishmael 12/22/2011 7:21:16 PM | Its hard to disagree with any of the above. The only thing I will add is that what seems like a value play with 1-2 minutes to go isnt when they go off. Or in case of too many tracks well after they start the race. The reverse can happen too, but doesnt seem to happen nearly as much
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| Windoor 12/23/2011 12:55:40 PM | Well it’s good to know I haven’t gone of the deep end yet, and I thank-you for your response. We are of an age and experience, and I also have found much in J/Capper that has helped by bottom line when I originally just wanted to run my personal factor set and “divide by seven” I will have to be dark horse as far as waiting for value. I can set a minimum odd with test banks at Twinspires, but can not at the OTB. I just do not have time to spend all day waiting to see what the odds may be, and I have a (may just being paranoid) deep mistrust of ADW's. to keep my selections private. So far, this has worked pretty well for me, but I suspect the tote watchers do have an affect on the odds at times. I always seem to get much better odds after a long losing streak. Any who follow me, needs a strong bank.:) I have found (and the data supports this) that it does not affect my bottom line that much playing low odd horses. They will increase the win percent at the cost of a lower average odd and ROI. It does not have much of an affect on overall profit for the quarter. YMMV. There are also other benefits for playing at a OTB, if one is available to you. I have runners that can do this for me when I can not make the trip myself. One is 6’3 and a Kempo Karate black belt, as well as being completely trustworthy. No concerns there. I have a gut feeling that you would need at least 3 years (maybe 5) to really know how a track is going to play with your selections overtime. That assumes that there has not been major change in the racing surface or types of races being run. I have this information for my home track. In fact I have data that goes back to 1996 and my original plays still do well there, if a bit bumpy at times. I do hate the spring time at Philly, and now that I have a proper database and other tracks to play, I may just pass most of the third quarter there. Regards, Windoor ~Edited by: Windoor on: 12/23/2011 at: 12:55:40 PM~
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