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By APX on Arlington Million Day....Sat 08-13-11
JustRalph
8/12/2011
8:49:02 PM
check out the card.

Some seriously high volatility numbers using the Bris data.

looks like fun.

Reply
jeff
8/13/2011
8:23:12 PM
Some absolutely interesting races on that card Ralph.

Decided this morning to pass on APX though. I have a handful of EarlyConsensus (F19) UDMs that seem to do well this time of year -

Ran the following query in search of tracks where the surface has been kind to the front end lately (and went fishing in what turned out to be a pretty good pond today.)


query start: 8/13/2011 5:00:53 PM
query end: 8/13/2011 5:00:56 PM
elapsed time: 3 seconds
`
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
`
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKJPR=1
AND GAPF19 >= 4
AND INTSURFACE <= 3
AND DATEDIFF('D',[DATE], NOW()) <= 7
`
`
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 920.50 885.20 836.40
Bet -902.00 -902.00 -902.00
Gain 18.50 -16.80 -65.60
`
Wins 145 234 282
Plays 451 451 451
PCT .3215 .5188 .6253
`
ROI 1.0205 0.9814 0.9273
Avg Mut 6.35 3.78 2.97
`
`
`
****************************************************************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Win ROI Run Date: 8/13/2011 5:00:56 PM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
FER 3 1 0.3333 1.0367 2.4667 1 0.3333 1.2
DEL 12 5 0.4167 1.2961 2.05 5 0.4167 1.0333
ARP 12 6 0.5 1.5552 1.9 8 0.6667 1.8
BOI 7 4 0.5714 1.7773 1.6286 6 0.8571 1.3
HST 6 2 0.3333 1.0367 1.5333 2 0.3333 0.65
SAR 25 7 0.28 0.8709 1.486 9 0.36 0.874
HOO 19 8 0.4211 1.3098 1.4421 12 0.6316 1.3368
CBY 11 5 0.4545 1.4137 1.4091 6 0.5455 0.9455
PID 18 6 0.3333 1.0367 1.3778 8 0.4444 0.8361
CTX 13 5 0.3846 1.1962 1.3308 6 0.4615 0.8846
EVD 15 7 0.4667 1.4516 1.3267 10 0.6667 1.1267
SUF 12 6 0.5 1.5552 1.3083 9 0.75 1.0583
KSP 3 1 0.3333 1.0367 1.2667 3 1 1.6667
FEX 8 2 0.25 0.7776 1.2187 3 0.375 0.7938
EMD 16 8 0.5 1.5552 1.0812 13 0.8125 1.2938
ASD 13 6 0.4615 1.4354 1.0423 8 0.6154 1.0885
TDN 15 7 0.4667 1.4516 1.04 11 0.7333 1.06
MNR 21 7 0.3333 1.0367 1.0238 12 0.5714 1.019
CRC 18 6 0.3333 1.0367 1.0167 6 0.3333 0.5333
MTH 7 1 0.1429 0.4445 1.0143 3 0.4286 1.6429
SRX 15 3 0.2 0.6221 1.0133 9 0.6 1.1967
GPR 4 2 0.5 1.5552 1 3 0.75 1.25
`
FLX 23 10 0.4348 1.3524 0.937 13 0.5652 0.8891
FPK 9 2 0.2222 0.6911 0.9333 4 0.4444 1.0778
WOX 21 9 0.4286 1.3331 0.9286 13 0.619 1.1238
ELP 9 3 0.3333 1.0367 0.7667 6 0.6667 1.0167
APX 16 4 0.25 0.7776 0.7438 8 0.5 0.925
RUI 11 2 0.1818 0.5655 0.4455 4 0.3636 0.6364
PRM 14 3 0.2143 0.6665 0.4286 6 0.4286 0.7071
CLS 8 1 0.125 0.3888 0.425 3 0.375 1.0125
LAD 15 1 0.0667 0.2075 0.3667 2 0.1333 0.26
LAX 5 1 0.2 0.6221 0.34 2 0.4 0.45
RDX 12 1 0.0833 0.2591 0.3333 8 0.6667 1.3667
PHA 6 1 0.1667 0.5185 0.3 1 0.1667 0.1833
NPX 12 1 0.0833 0.2591 0.2875 4 0.3333 0.8125
DMR 11 1 0.0909 0.2827 0.1818 3 0.2727 0.4636
RET 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MDX 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4.05
PEN 4 0 0 0 0 3 0.75 1.35
****************************************************************************************
39 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
****************************************************************************************



-jp

.

Reply
JustRalph
8/13/2011
9:09:00 PM
Great Stuff........ always making me think....

I caught a 23 dollar horse and a 64 dollar horse at APX including a couple of very nice exacta tickets with them.

Most likely paid for my Trip to Saratoga next week. What more can you ask for..........now excuse me while I build a couple of UDM's that you made me think about ........Thanks!

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