|
JCapper Message Board General Discussion
|
| Home |
Register
Log In |
| By | Q1 2008 Some Numbers | |
| jeff 4/10/2008 5:55:35 PM | It's starting to look like today is the day. The initial version of JCapper2008 should be available for download sometime later today. I thought it might be a good idea to start a thread discussing some of the new factors. I'll start with the JCapper Compound Pace Array and come back and post more later as time allows. The JCapper Compound Pace Array One of the significant additions to JCapper2008 is the Compound Pace Array. The Compound Pace Array contains 11 new factors which are detailed below. All of the Compound Pace Array factors appear in the factors drop downs of both the UDM Wizard and the Impact Values Table Wizard. All of them are fully "grabbable" in both UDMs and UPR. I should also point out that "grabbable in UPR" means grabbable when creating any of the five new UPR UserFactors that are also part of JCapper2008. It's very possible that you are completely satisfied with your current handicapping process and results. Maybe you don't want to look at new numbers. I know that describeds ME from time to time. Along those lines I've also added a checkbox to the System Definitions Screen. When the Enable Compound Pace Array Checkbox is checked, numbers for the Compound Pace Array factors for each horse are displayed on the HTML Report. Before diving into a detailed explanation for each of the ten new Compound Pace Array factors I'd like to talk a little bit about how they best might be used. The Compound Pace Array was designed to give the JCapper user a serious set of tools for the purpose of understanding (and using that understanding in your handicapping) the demands that individual surfaces and distances place on the horses you bet on. In Understanding Track Weight I wrote about two extremes of track weight: BEL 2007 which was speed favoring and APX which was speed tiring. This past winter has seen another pair of extremes: AQU which has been so wonderfully speed favoring - and TPX where the surface has been consistently stopping speedsters in their tracks at any distance 6f and longer. Players making the effort to keep track profiles and decision models will always find themselves in a much better position to gain an edge over the crowd than those who don't do this. Perhaps that's as it should be. The Compound Pace Array was designed as a tool set for those willing to do the work. And while factor constraints for factors found in the Compound Pace Array might benefit many of your existing UDMs, my personal opinion is that players likely to derive the most benefit from the Compound Pace Array are those whose primary use of it becomes centered around understanding the demands that individual surfaces and distances place on the horses. All of the factors in the array are compound numbers. Each is created by a very unique algorithm that evaluates each horse's Bris Pace Figures (early and late) from selected pacelines. Here is a description of the factors in the array: CompoundE1 CompoundE1 is a measurement of early speed - ability from the starting gate to the first point of call - the opening quarter mile in sprint races and the opening half mile in route races. CompoundE1 is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected E1 pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. CompoundE2 CompoundE2 is a measurement of early speed - ability from the starting gate to the second point of call - the opening half mile in sprint races and the opening 3/4 mile in route races. CompoundE2 is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected E2 pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. CompoundTT CompoundTT is a measurement of early speed - the ability to accelerate from the first call to the second call. CompoundTT is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected E1 and E2 pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. It is calculated as follows: CompoundTT = (2 * CompoundE2) - CompoundE1 CompoundLate CompoundLate is a measurement of late speed - ability from the the second point of call to the finish line. CompoundLate is a compound number - a mini power rating based on selected Late pace figures found in a horse's past performance record. CompoundLateHO Some races (most graded stakes races for example) have several horses in the field capable of running very strong late pace numbers. Other races (Mdn claiming races for example) have very few horses capable of finishing strongly. The "HO" in CompoundLateHO means Highest Other. What is a highest other? Within the context of looking at the current horse, CompoundLateHO is the highest CompoundLate in the race belonging to another horse. If the current horse has the top CompoundLate in the race, then the CompoundLateHO will belong to the second best CompoundLate horse in the race. If the current horse does not have the best CompoundLate in the race, then the CompoundLateHO will belong to the top CompoundLate horse in the field. Combined with CompoundLate rank, numeric value, and gap, CompoundLateHO gives you yet another way of looking at the dynamics of the race - and writing a UDM to take advantage of that race dynamic. CompoundPctE CompoundPctE is a measurement of running style/energy distribution. CompoundPctE is very similar to, but differs slightly from PctE. The original PctE is arrived at by averaging pace figures taken from every running line, while CompoundPctE is arrived at using pace figures from selected running lines only. TE = CompoundE2 + CompoundLate CompoundPctE = (CompoundE2 x 100) / TE CompoundPctM CompoundPctM is a measurement of running style/energy distribution. CompoundPctM is calculated as follows: TE = CompoundE1 + CompoundE2 + CompoundLate CompoundPctM = ((CompoundE1 + CompoundE2 ) x 100) / TE CompoundPctM is similar in nature to, but slightly different from CompoundPctE. CompoundPctM can give you a slightly different perspective than CompoundPctE when evaluating surface/distance requirements and track biases and when creating track profiles. CompoundSP CompoundSP is a measurement that combines both early and late pace. It differs from the original SP found in JCapper. The original SP is based on the horse's single strongest running line. CompoundSP is based on CompoundE2 and CompoundLate. It is calculated as follows: CompoundSP = (CompoundE2 + CompoundLate) / 2 CompoundAP CompoundAP is a measurement of average pace. It is based on CompoundE2, CompoundLate, and CompoundSP. It is calculated as follows: dblCompAP = (CompoundE2 + CompoundSP ) / 2 LateSlant LateSlant is a last line speed figure where finishing ability is emphasisized. LateSlant is designed to give you a way to emphasize last line late speed in UPR and UDMs. You may find it useful at certain distances, on certain turf courses, and certain artificial surfaces. CompoundPaceFit CompoundPaceFit is a number (on a scale of 0-100) that represents favorable vs unfavorable pace scenarios within a race. The higher the number the more favorable the pace matchup is for a given horse in today's race. The lower the number the more the horse is up against it pace-wise today. CompoundPaceFit is not a magic bullet - even though at times it may look like it should be. Sometimes riders assigned horses with pace advantages over their fields decide (or are given instructions by trainers) to ride the horse in a way that destroys the advantage. But overall, and especially after you've spent some time at the Data Window evaluating it, I think you will find CompoundPaceFit to be a VERY NICE addition to the JCapper factor set. -jp . ~Edited by: jeff on: 4/10/2008 at: 12:22:34 PM~
| |
| jeff 4/7/2008 7:43:17 PM | Testing the REPLY link in the General Discussion Forum. -jp .
|
| Reply |
|
Copyright © 2018 JCapper Software back to the JCapper Message Board www.JCapper.com |