Benchmark Testing in JCapper

Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
One factor tested was Bris Speed Figure (Last Race.) This is a very easy factor to identify. It is simply the Last Race Bris Speed Figure. All surfaces and distances were considered. No attempt was made to break any ties.

WeightedFigure
This number represents the performance of a horse's most recent running line. This is a compound number derived using an algorithm where E1, E2, and Late Pace are weighted according to the impacts of historical occurances and are combined into a single number.

Comparing Weighted Figure with Bris Speed Figure (Last Race)
A comparison between the Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) and the JCapper Weighted Figure reveals some interesting information.

First, horses with the highest Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) won a slighly higher percentage of races than horses with the highest JCapper Weighted Figure.

Despite this, horses with the highest JCapper Weighted Figure returned more money than did horses with the highest Bris Speed Figure (Last Race).

Also, the top 4 ranked horses in JCapper Weighted Figure outperformed the top 4 rated horses in Bris Speed Figure (Last Race) in both of the following categories: Win Percentage for the Top 4 Contenders and ROI for the Top 4 Contenders. This was true for both Dirt Sprints and Dirt Routes without consideration of odds ranges. More importantly, this was also true for horses that were sent to post at odds of 6-1 and higher.

What might this mean? To the profit minded player it might mean that the potential for profit is greater using the JCapper Weighted Figure than it might be using the Bris Last Race Speed Figure.

Why might this be so? The past several years have seen a huge proliferation of players who get their handicapping information online. More and more players these days are using handicapping software as a tool in their wagering decision making process. The Bris Last Race Speed Figure is something that is seen and used by thousands of players every day. Yet the JCapper Weighted Figure is only seen by a small handful of players each day. It has predictive utility that parallels the Bris Speed Figure (Last Race.) The JCapper Weighted Figure is a unique number. As such, perhaps it is different enough from the speed figures seen and used by the majority of other players that it just might be useful to the profit minded player.

It is inherently easier to create profitable wagering models based on unique numbers such as the JCapper Weighted Figure than trying to do so using numbers available to the vast majority of players such as the Bris Speed Figure (Last Race.) Weighted Figure is certainly not a magic bullet, nor is it the strongest factor in JCapper. But, consider this: In Dirt Sprints, the top two ranked horses using this factor were profitable at odds of 6-1 and higher. In Dirt Routes, the top four ranked horses using this factor when taken as a group were profitable at odds of 6-1 and higher.

A player could use the Database and Modeling Tools in JCapper to analyze the top two Weighted Figure horses at 6-1 and higher in dirt sprints and the top four Weighted Figure horses at 6-1 and higher in dirt routes. Undesirable horses within these sets could be identified and removed from further consideration. It is very likely that the set of remaining horses could form a basis for profitable play. A user doing this might create several profitable User Defined Models using Weighted Figure as a starting point.



Bris Prime Power
This number is produced by Bloodstock Research and is read by JCapper directly from the Bris DRF Single Format data file. Although not profitable on its own, this number does have some predictive utility. Here is how Bris Prime Power fared during the Benchmark Testing Period:

JRating
JRating is produced by a JCapper algorithm using many factors weighted according to the impacts of historical occurances. It has both predictive utility and good profit potential. Here is how JRating fared during the Benchmark Testing Period: