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Finding the Playable Race
January, 2005
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Finding the Playable Race
The vast majority of horseplayers today can be classified as speed and pace players. And the vast majority of those tend to spend a great deal of time and energy focusing on the speed and pace numbers themselves. Very often often they lose sight of something that can be every bit as important as speed and pace numbers: Finding the Playable Race. This article outlines a method of play where the tools in JCapper are used to identify playable as well as unplayable races.
JCapper contains some very good tools for separating playable races from non-playable races. Among them are: Field Size, PF1, PF2, Morning Line Race Low, and Race Volatility. Each will be discussed and Data Window examples of their use will be presented.
For purposes of this article, all data presented is from a sample of approximately 5600 dirt sprint races from my own database for the calendar year 2004.
Field Size
Field size is a simple count of the number of runners in a race. The larger the field, the greater the number of horses that must be analyzed, and the harder it becomes for the public (and us) to pick any one horse as the race winner.
The following table shows Data Window results for the top ranked JRating horse broken out by Field Size. Profit and Win Roi are decidedly higher in 11 horse fields and larger.
Data Summary |
Win |
Place |
Show |
Mutuel Totals |
10766.10 |
10551.00 |
10146.20 |
Bet |
-11236.00 |
-11236.00 |
-11236.00 |
Gain |
-469.90 |
-685.00 |
-1089.80 |
Wins |
1524 |
2611 |
3311 |
Plays |
5618 |
5618 |
5618 |
PCT |
.2713 |
.4648 |
.5894 |
ROI |
0.9582 |
0.9390 |
0.9030 |
Avg Mut |
7.06 |
4.04 |
3.06 |
FieldSize |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
1 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
3 |
0.80 |
8.00 |
1.1000 |
2 |
4 |
.5000 |
4 |
-20.60 |
100.00 |
0.7940 |
16 |
50 |
.3200 |
5 |
-145.90 |
690.00 |
0.7886 |
108 |
345 |
.3130 |
6 |
-116.70 |
1646.00 |
0.9291 |
262 |
823 |
.3183 |
7 |
-140.00 |
2272.00 |
0.9384 |
329 |
1136 |
.2896 |
8 |
-311.90 |
2036.00 |
0.8468 |
261 |
1018 |
.2564 |
9 |
99.00 |
1506.00 |
1.0657 |
193 |
753 |
.2563 |
10 |
-181.80 |
1168.00 |
0.8443 |
131 |
584 |
.2243 |
11 |
284.00 |
886.00 |
1.3205 |
115 |
443 |
.2596 |
12 |
51.20 |
844.00 |
1.0607 |
99 |
422 |
.2346 |
13 |
-21.20 |
52.00 |
0.5923 |
2 |
26 |
.0769 |
14 |
28.40 |
28.00 |
2.0143 |
4 |
14 |
.2857 |
PF1 and PF2
PF1 and PF2 are numbers in JCapper that stand for Prime Power Failure scores one and two. The logic behind the numbers is that Prime Power is a number seen and reacted to by a great number of bettors. The top Prime Power horse in a race is almost always overbet and therefore an underlay. As a general rule, it is a bad idea to try and bet the top Prime Power horse in the race to win. But, if we hope to cash a ticket on a different horse, we have to contend with, and beat, the top Prime Power horse in the race.
Fortunatley, not all top Prime Power horses are created equal. The following table shows Data Window results for the top Prime Power horse in each race broken out by PF1 and PF2. Win rate for the top Prime Power horse in the race is decidedly lower when those horses have low PF1 and PF2 scores.
Data Summary |
Win |
Place |
Show |
Mutuel Totals |
9591.20 |
9841.50 |
10005.60 |
Bet |
-11422.00 |
-11422.00 |
-11422.00 |
Gain |
-1830.80 |
-1580.50 |
-1416.40 |
Wins |
1814 |
2935 |
3682 |
Plays |
5711 |
5711 |
5711 |
PCT |
.3176 |
.5139 |
.6447 |
ROI |
0.8397 |
0.8616 |
0.8760 |
Avg Mut |
5.29 |
3.35 |
2.72 |
By: 100 pF1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
-999.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
0.00 |
9.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
10.00 |
19.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
20.00 |
29.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
30.00 |
39.99 |
0.00 |
10.00 |
0.0000 |
2 |
5 |
.4000 |
40.00 |
49.99 |
0.00 |
38.00 |
0.0000 |
4 |
19 |
.2105 |
50.00 |
59.99 |
-4.40 |
44.00 |
0.9000 |
5 |
22 |
.2273 |
60.00 |
69.99 |
-77.60 |
176.00 |
0.5591 |
16 |
88 |
.1818 |
70.00 |
79.99 |
10.80 |
384.00 |
1.0281 |
56 |
192 |
.2917 |
80.00 |
89.99 |
-247.40 |
1166.00 |
0.7878 |
147 |
583 |
.2521 |
90.00 |
99.99 |
-619.50 |
2900.00 |
0.7864 |
413 |
1450 |
.2848 |
100.00 |
109.99 |
-221.20 |
1952.00 |
0.8867 |
320 |
976 |
.3279 |
110.00 |
119.99 |
-700.60 |
4308.00 |
0.8374 |
738 |
2154 |
.3426 |
120.00 |
129.99 |
39.00 |
300.00 |
1.1300 |
80 |
150 |
.5333 |
130.00 |
139.99 |
-17.20 |
36.00 |
0.5222 |
5 |
18 |
.2778 |
140.00 |
149.99 |
-7.40 |
28.00 |
0.7357 |
5 |
14 |
.3571 |
150.00 |
159.99 |
-7.40 |
22.00 |
0.6636 |
4 |
11 |
.3636 |
160.00 |
169.99 |
-3.20 |
6.00 |
0.4667 |
1 |
3 |
.3333 |
170.00 |
179.99 |
-8.00 |
16.00 |
0.5000 |
2 |
8 |
.2500 |
180.00 |
9999.00 |
-2.40 |
32.00 |
0.9250 |
6 |
16 |
.3750 |
By: 101 pF2
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
-999.00 |
70.00 |
-88.20 |
294.00 |
0.7000 |
31 |
147 |
.2109 |
70.00 |
74.99 |
31.20 |
150.00 |
1.2080 |
25 |
75 |
.3333 |
75.00 |
79.99 |
-34.90 |
262.00 |
0.8668 |
31 |
131 |
.2366 |
80.00 |
84.99 |
-41.50 |
356.00 |
0.8834 |
44 |
178 |
.2472 |
85.00 |
89.99 |
-157.90 |
600.00 |
0.7368 |
67 |
300 |
.2233 |
90.00 |
94.99 |
-227.60 |
1144.00 |
0.8010 |
165 |
572 |
.2885 |
95.00 |
99.99 |
-309.80 |
1828.00 |
0.8305 |
268 |
914 |
.2932 |
100.00 |
104.99 |
-372.60 |
2008.00 |
0.8144 |
320 |
1004 |
.3187 |
105.00 |
109.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
110.00 |
114.99 |
-520.30 |
3174.00 |
0.8361 |
525 |
1587 |
.3308 |
115.00 |
119.99 |
-146.40 |
1128.00 |
0.8702 |
212 |
564 |
.3759 |
120.00 |
124.99 |
40.90 |
260.00 |
1.1573 |
74 |
130 |
.5692 |
125.00 |
129.99 |
4.60 |
68.00 |
1.0676 |
19 |
34 |
.5588 |
130.00 |
134.99 |
-26.00 |
26.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
13 |
.0000 |
135.00 |
139.99 |
11.40 |
8.00 |
2.4250 |
4 |
4 |
1.0000 |
140.00 |
144.99 |
-3.20 |
18.00 |
0.8222 |
4 |
9 |
.4444 |
145.00 |
149.99 |
-6.00 |
6.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
3 |
.0000 |
150.00 |
154.99 |
-2.00 |
2.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
1 |
.0000 |
155.00 |
159.99 |
-5.40 |
20.00 |
0.7300 |
4 |
10 |
.4000 |
160.00 |
9999.00 |
-13.60 |
54.00 |
0.7481 |
9 |
27 |
.3333 |
Morning Line Race Low
Another horse we must contend with in a race is the Morning Line Favorite. Again, it is generally a bad idea to try and bet the Morning Line Favorite to win because these horses are almost always overbet and therefore underlays. But not all Morning Line Favorites are created equal. There is a correalation between the odds set by the morning line oddsmaker and actual win percentage. The lower the Morning Line odds of the Morning Line Favorite, the higher the win percentage. The following table illustrates this quite clearly.
Data Summary |
Win |
Place |
Show |
Mutuel Totals |
9654.40 |
9964.80 |
9950.30 |
Bet |
-11568.00 |
-11568.00 |
-11568.00 |
Gain |
-1913.60 |
-1603.20 |
-1617.70 |
Wins |
1887 |
3060 |
3760 |
Plays |
5784 |
5784 |
5784 |
PCT |
.3262 |
.5290 |
.6501 |
ROI |
0.8346 |
0.8614 |
0.8602 |
Avg Mut |
5.12 |
3.26 |
2.65 |
By: Morning Line
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
-999.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
0.00 |
0.99 |
-49.20 |
226.00 |
0.7823 |
46 |
113 |
.4071 |
1.00 |
1.99 |
-453.70 |
2860.00 |
0.8414 |
601 |
1430 |
.4203 |
2.00 |
2.99 |
-705.40 |
4950.00 |
0.8575 |
789 |
2475 |
.3188 |
3.00 |
3.99 |
-583.00 |
2966.00 |
0.8034 |
378 |
1483 |
.2549 |
4.00 |
4.99 |
-167.90 |
486.00 |
0.6545 |
47 |
243 |
.1934 |
5.00 |
5.99 |
-11.00 |
62.00 |
0.8226 |
8 |
31 |
.2581 |
6.00 |
6.99 |
-4.00 |
18.00 |
0.7778 |
2 |
9 |
.2222 |
7.00 |
7.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
It therefore follows that as a general rule win bets the top JRating horse in a race should be more profitable in races where the Morning Line odds of the Morning Line Favorite are higher rather than lower. The following table illustrates this quite clearly.
Data Summary |
Win |
Place |
Show |
Mutuel Totals |
10766.10 |
10551.00 |
10146.20 |
Bet |
-11236.00 |
-11236.00 |
-11236.00 |
Gain |
-469.90 |
-685.00 |
-1089.80 |
Wins |
1524 |
2611 |
3311 |
Plays |
5618 |
5618 |
5618 |
PCT |
.2713 |
.4648 |
.5894 |
ROI |
0.9582 |
0.9390 |
0.9030 |
Avg Mut |
7.06 |
4.04 |
3.06 |
By: Morning Line (Low for Race)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
-999.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
0.00 |
0.49 |
7.00 |
12.00 |
1.5833 |
4 |
6 |
.6667 |
0.50 |
0.99 |
-16.80 |
126.00 |
0.8667 |
32 |
63 |
.5079 |
1.00 |
1.49 |
-154.00 |
784.00 |
0.8036 |
138 |
392 |
.3520 |
1.50 |
1.99 |
-94.40 |
2018.00 |
0.9532 |
329 |
1009 |
.3261 |
2.00 |
2.49 |
-46.50 |
1914.00 |
0.9757 |
273 |
957 |
.2853 |
2.50 |
2.99 |
-252.20 |
2916.00 |
0.9135 |
369 |
1458 |
.2531 |
3.00 |
3.49 |
26.80 |
2124.00 |
1.0126 |
246 |
1062 |
.2316 |
3.50 |
3.99 |
-94.30 |
812.00 |
0.8839 |
70 |
406 |
.1724 |
4.00 |
4.49 |
104.70 |
428.00 |
1.2446 |
45 |
214 |
.2103 |
4.50 |
4.99 |
-4.60 |
38.00 |
0.8789 |
4 |
19 |
.2105 |
5.00 |
5.49 |
52.40 |
56.00 |
1.9357 |
11 |
28 |
.3929 |
5.50 |
5.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
6.00 |
6.49 |
-2.80 |
8.00 |
0.6500 |
1 |
4 |
.2500 |
Race Volatility
Race Volatility in JCapper combines Field Size, the PF1 and PF2 of the top Prime Power horse in the race, and the odds of the Morning Line favorite in the race into a single number that often indicates the amount of volatility or chaos present in the race. The higher the Race Volatility score, the greater the degree of uncertainty present in the race.
The following table shows Data Window results of Post Time Favorites broken out by Race Volatility. Favorites win a higher percentage of races where Race Volatility is low and a lower percentage of races where Race Volatility is high.
Data Summary |
Win |
Place |
Show |
Mutuel Totals |
9843.60 |
10428.80 |
10452.80 |
Bet |
-11838.00 |
-11838.00 |
-11838.00 |
Gain |
-1994.40 |
-1409.20 |
-1385.20 |
Wins |
2100 |
3340 |
4035 |
Plays |
5919 |
5919 |
5919 |
PCT |
.3548 |
.5643 |
.6817 |
ROI |
0.8315 |
0.8810 |
0.8830 |
Avg Mut |
4.69 |
3.12 |
2.59 |
By: Race Volatility
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
-999.00 |
0.00 |
-2.20 |
68.00 |
0.9676 |
16 |
34 |
.4706 |
0.00 |
9.99 |
-1.60 |
26.00 |
0.9385 |
6 |
13 |
.4615 |
10.00 |
19.99 |
6.80 |
26.00 |
1.2615 |
9 |
13 |
.6923 |
20.00 |
29.99 |
1.00 |
36.00 |
1.0278 |
12 |
18 |
.6667 |
30.00 |
39.99 |
-4.30 |
116.00 |
0.9629 |
33 |
58 |
.5690 |
40.00 |
49.99 |
-17.30 |
292.00 |
0.9408 |
73 |
146 |
.5000 |
50.00 |
59.99 |
-84.00 |
514.00 |
0.8366 |
109 |
257 |
.4241 |
60.00 |
69.99 |
-134.40 |
886.00 |
0.8483 |
175 |
443 |
.3950 |
70.00 |
79.99 |
-221.00 |
1068.00 |
0.7931 |
200 |
534 |
.3745 |
80.00 |
89.99 |
-282.10 |
1154.00 |
0.7555 |
198 |
577 |
.3432 |
90.00 |
99.99 |
-101.80 |
1166.00 |
0.9127 |
221 |
583 |
.3791 |
100.00 |
109.99 |
-173.20 |
1160.00 |
0.8507 |
209 |
580 |
.3603 |
110.00 |
119.99 |
-247.40 |
1146.00 |
0.7841 |
185 |
573 |
.3229 |
120.00 |
129.99 |
-176.10 |
944.00 |
0.8135 |
151 |
472 |
.3199 |
130.00 |
139.99 |
-157.80 |
764.00 |
0.7935 |
121 |
382 |
.3168 |
140.00 |
149.99 |
-135.50 |
638.00 |
0.7876 |
98 |
319 |
.3072 |
150.00 |
159.99 |
-87.40 |
542.00 |
0.8387 |
83 |
271 |
.3063 |
160.00 |
169.99 |
-49.40 |
460.00 |
0.8926 |
74 |
230 |
.3217 |
170.00 |
179.99 |
-48.10 |
280.00 |
0.8282 |
39 |
140 |
.2786 |
180.00 |
9999.00 |
-150.80 |
548.00 |
0.7248 |
68 |
274 |
.2482 |
The Playable Race
The question then arises, which race types are better for us? High volatility races or low volatility races? Are we better off looking for races with low uncertainty or high uncertainty?
The following table shows Data Window results for the top JRating horse in the race broken out by Race Volatility. The pattern speaks for itself. High volatility races produce the best prices for JRating horses.
Data Summary |
Win |
Place |
Show |
Mutuel Totals |
10766.10 |
10551.00 |
10146.20 |
Bet |
-11236.00 |
-11236.00 |
-11236.00 |
Gain |
-469.90 |
-685.00 |
-1089.80 |
Wins |
1524 |
2611 |
3311 |
Plays |
5618 |
5618 |
5618 |
PCT |
.2713 |
.4648 |
.5894 |
ROI |
0.9582 |
0.9390 |
0.9030 |
Avg Mut |
7.06 |
4.04 |
3.06 |
By: Race Volatility
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
-999.00 |
0.00 |
-21.60 |
62.00 |
0.6516 |
9 |
31 |
.2903 |
0.00 |
9.99 |
-7.00 |
26.00 |
0.7308 |
5 |
13 |
.3846 |
10.00 |
19.99 |
3.60 |
26.00 |
1.1385 |
8 |
13 |
.6154 |
20.00 |
29.99 |
-2.40 |
36.00 |
0.9333 |
11 |
18 |
.6111 |
30.00 |
39.99 |
28.50 |
116.00 |
1.2457 |
29 |
58 |
.5000 |
40.00 |
49.99 |
-36.40 |
290.00 |
0.8745 |
64 |
145 |
.4414 |
50.00 |
59.99 |
-63.20 |
496.00 |
0.8726 |
83 |
248 |
.3347 |
60.00 |
69.99 |
-93.30 |
812.00 |
0.8851 |
138 |
406 |
.3399 |
70.00 |
79.99 |
-133.90 |
1014.00 |
0.8679 |
162 |
507 |
.3195 |
80.00 |
89.99 |
-62.20 |
1106.00 |
0.9438 |
169 |
553 |
.3056 |
90.00 |
99.99 |
-148.20 |
1110.00 |
0.8665 |
160 |
555 |
.2883 |
100.00 |
109.99 |
-82.00 |
1080.00 |
0.9241 |
149 |
540 |
.2759 |
110.00 |
119.99 |
-188.00 |
1092.00 |
0.8278 |
117 |
546 |
.2143 |
120.00 |
129.99 |
-52.40 |
900.00 |
0.9418 |
89 |
450 |
.1978 |
130.00 |
139.99 |
-36.80 |
736.00 |
0.9500 |
88 |
368 |
.2391 |
140.00 |
149.99 |
141.70 |
604.00 |
1.2346 |
71 |
302 |
.2351 |
150.00 |
159.99 |
98.80 |
500.00 |
1.1976 |
60 |
250 |
.2400 |
160.00 |
169.99 |
47.90 |
430.00 |
1.1114 |
34 |
215 |
.1581 |
170.00 |
179.99 |
44.40 |
266.00 |
1.1669 |
28 |
133 |
.2105 |
180.00 |
9999.00 |
91.80 |
530.00 |
1.1732 |
48 |
265 |
.1811 |
Putting It All Together
Taking the concept one step further, what happens if we design a UDM to do two things? One, pick very logical contenders (the top JRating horse in the race.) And two, pick playable races (Race Volatility >= 140.) The following table shows results for all dirt sprints in my database for the calendar year 2004 where both those conditions are met.
UDM Definition:
Profile: DS_J1-RV140+
UDM Divisor: 999
Surface Req: D* Distance Req: S
Running Style: ALL
Race Volatility: MinVal= 140 MaxVal= 999
JRating: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 1 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Filters Applied:
Dirt (All*) SPRINTS (From Index File: F:\FALL_2004\pl_JRating_1_ytd.txt)
|
Data Summary |
Win |
Place |
Show |
Mutuel Totals |
2754.60 |
2444.90 |
2283.70 |
Bet |
-2330.00 |
-2330.00 |
-2330.00 |
Gain |
424.60 |
114.90 |
-46.30 |
Wins |
241 |
431 |
586 |
Plays |
1165 |
1165 |
1165 |
PCT |
.2069 |
.3700 |
.5030 |
ROI |
1.1822 |
1.0493 |
0.9801 |
Avg Mut |
11.43 |
5.67 |
3.90 |
By: Race Volatility
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
Gain |
Bet |
Roi |
Wins |
Plays |
Pct |
-999.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
0.00 |
9.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
10.00 |
19.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
20.00 |
29.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
30.00 |
39.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
40.00 |
49.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
50.00 |
59.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
60.00 |
69.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
70.00 |
79.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
80.00 |
89.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
90.00 |
99.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
100.00 |
109.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
110.00 |
119.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
120.00 |
129.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
130.00 |
139.99 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0000 |
0 |
0 |
.0000 |
140.00 |
149.99 |
141.70 |
604.00 |
1.2346 |
71 |
302 |
.2351 |
150.00 |
159.99 |
98.80 |
500.00 |
1.1976 |
60 |
250 |
.2400 |
160.00 |
169.99 |
47.90 |
430.00 |
1.1114 |
34 |
215 |
.1581 |
170.00 |
179.99 |
44.40 |
266.00 |
1.1669 |
28 |
133 |
.2105 |
180.00 |
9999.00 |
91.80 |
530.00 |
1.1732 |
48 |
265 |
.1811 |
If you'd like to create your own UDMs using JRating and Race Volatility, you'll find both on the factors drop down in the UDM Wizard where you can set Min and Max values. You'll also find both in the Profile Table Interface- Complete View ALL and Complete View Active Profiles.
Until Next Month,
Happy Hunting,
jeff
jeff.platt@jcapper.com
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Copyright © 2005 JCapper Software
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